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View Diary: Obama's Second Term hinges on Syria Vote (118 comments)

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  •  inclusiveheart - Not me (1+ / 0-)
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    I don't think anyone should support the Syria mission if they don't think it is the right policy. The author and I are just writing about the political fallout of a rebuke by Congress, particularly by the President's own party. In my view the political damage will severely weaken the President and his ability to achieve any of his domestic or international goals for the remainder of his second term.

    "let's talk about that"

    by VClib on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 08:49:18 AM PDT

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    •  If you really want to think about the (1+ / 0-)
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      politics of the situation you should consider the Congressional election that is going to start to ramp up in just a few short months.  Being in another Middle Eastern/Central Asian war will not bode well for the Democratic Party.  With that in mind, just how lame do people want this duck to be for the next few years?

      But I will say that if the President does lose this vote - which is highly likely in the House no matter how many diaries anyone writes about supporting him - I do not believe that his chances for recovering from that loss are that bad - assuming the administration plays the follow on with the Syria situation better than they have so far.  There are other options that might actually make more of a difference in Syria than "limited airstrikes" would or ever could.

    •  This won't be a party-line vote though. (1+ / 0-)
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      True, there will be some Democrats who vote against this resolution, but I don't think there have been many pieces of legislation that there weren't some Democrats voting against it.

      The real question will be if Boehner can deliver the House. If he can't deliver the Republicans in the House (and Pelosi has already said she doesn't know if she can deliver the Democrats in the House), this could seal his fate (and possibly even Cantor's fate) as his Speakership would be proven to be completely ineffectual.

      This isn't a Parliamentary system. President Obama will still be President. And most of the Democrats will still vote for legislation that he would sign and most Republicans will vote against it.

      Do you believe that Democrats are going to start voting en masse against legislation that the President favors simply because?

      •  chuck - I don't agree with your analysis at all (3+ / 0-)
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        FG, chuckgintn, Pi Li

        This vote will have NO effect on John Boehner and his role as Speaker. He has through his statement that he would vote in favor of the AUMF given the GOP members of the House his permission for them to vote as they please. He made it crystal clear that he would not twist any arms or whip the vote in favor of the legislation and has no obligation whatsoever to "deliver the House". If the GOP keeps the House at the 2014 midterms Boehner will be the Speaker for the 114th Congress.

        If the GOP keeps the House the President was already looking at a difficult rest of his second term, but a rebuke by the House, particularly one led by his own party, will wound the President and make him less effective. It will certainly change the perception of the US at it relates to our international hot spots. The US will appear as a paper tiger. I think the vote will be a critical moment for the President, but only time will tell.

        It would be difficult to imagine how the President could have, from a political perspective, pursued the Syria issue in a manner that made him look less Presidential. I doubt he will do better in the future on this issue. He is a President who leads from behind.


        "let's talk about that"

        by VClib on Fri Sep 06, 2013 at 09:47:40 AM PDT

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        •  But the Republicans were likely to keep the House (1+ / 0-)
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          before this. If there was a faction of Republicans that had been voting for the President's agenda, I could see where this would be a problem for him. But the reality is that the House didn't vote for his legislation before and isn't going to in the future.

          The Democrats are for the most part going to keep voting for the President's agenda. There will be those who do not agree with some of it, and vote against it. I don't think this will be an uprising of the Democrats suddenly sabotaging his agenda. Most will still disagree with the Republicans, and it will be the same entity that has voted to repeal the ACA 40 times.

          If the Senate flips you might have a point, but that was a possibility before this. The Democrats are defending more seats than the Republicans, and this was the class of 2008 which came in with the Obama tide. So there were doubtless some weaker candidates in a non-Presidential year.

          As for Boehner, it depends on the makeup of the Republican caucus. The Tea Party would like to see him out as he is an establishment Republican. The establishment Republicans cannot be happy as there is literally nothing getting done in the House, ceding much legislative power to the Senate.  

          Boehner may not have promised the House, but this split shows the weakness of his leadership and the divisions of his caucus. I don't know that there is anyone waiting in the wings, but depending on the Senate makeup, I could see major changes in the House leadership.

          As for internationally, many see our interventions as purely self-interested anyway. They were not likely to see this any differently. The President has not endeared himself to many foreign powers despite his Nobel Peace Prize.

          In the end, he will still be President. This is not a Parliament. His government will not fall and a general election called. His agenda was already mired in a House that wouldn't vote for anything he wanted.

    •  But your analysis does not make sense (1+ / 0-)
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      President is legislative lame duck already.

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