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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/13 (224 comments)

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  •  States that may get marriage equality (11+ / 0-)

    in the next four years.

    Hawaii (legislature)
    Illinois (legislature or state Supreme Ct)
    New Mexico (state Supreme Ct)
    Oregon (ballot)
    New Jersey (state Supreme Ct.)
    Colorado (ballot)
    Michigan (ballot)
    Ohio (ballot)
    Nevada (ballot)
    Arizona (ballot)
    Virginia (California method)
    Pennsylvania (California method)

    California method is defined here as the anti-gay law being struck down in federal court and the Governor and Attorney General refusing to appeal.

    •  That's a good list (0+ / 0-)

      and I think you got the order right too.  2016 will be a fantastic opportunity for a lot of ballot initiatives.

      •  Actually I'd put the order like this (0+ / 0-)

        Hawaii (2013)
        New Mexico (2014)
        Illinois (2014)
        New Jersey (2014)
        Oregon (2014)
        Virginia (2015)
        Pennsylvania (2015)
        Colorado (2016)
        Michigan (2016)
        Ohio (2016)
        Nevada (2016)
        Arizona (2016)

        Possibly Michigan in 2014, if they put it on the ballot then.

    •  don't forget Kentucky (0+ / 0-)

      and the Carolinas, all of which have lawsuits proceeding.

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 10:33:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Those will take a while longer (0+ / 0-)

        because the R or conservaDem Attorney Generals in those states will likely defend their bans.  So you'll have to have a trial plus a ruling at the district court level, plus an appeal.

        It took 4 and a half years before California had its anti-gay ban finally extinguished.  So I'd expect nothing regarding the Carolinas until 2017, when I expect the Supreme Court to hear the case (and at the least to strike down all anti-gay referenda).

    •  Ohio has has two court challenges recently (0+ / 0-)

      So it could actually come about faster.

      25, Practical Progressive Democrat (-9.38, -8.51), Gay, IN-02 - Defeat Wacky Jackie!

      by HoosierD42 on Fri Sep 13, 2013 at 12:26:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not likely (0+ / 0-)

        As I mentioned above, the only way I see marriage equality coming before 2017 from federal court challenges is through the California method, that is if the Gov. and AG refuse to appeal a judge's ruling.  

        That is not likely in Ohio (as even if Kasich loses, it is unlikely that the AG will).

    •  There is also (0+ / 0-)

      There is also a federal case filed against Michigan's gay marriage and adoption ban making its way through the courts that legal pundits are saying is a very serious challenge.  Arguments start October 1.

      For the purpose of your definition, it does not fit this list, as while I wouldn't be surprised to see Snyder refuse to appeal a pro-equality ruling, state AG Bill Schuette would almost certainly appeal this up to the Supremes as he's a cyncial, ladder-climbing poll looking to eventually run for governor, himself.

      Anyway, a ballot initiative for marriage equality will most definitely be circulated in 2016, with a possible repeal of the current ban possibily coming next year to test the waters depending on who steps up to the plate.  Mark Schauer has made a pretty big deal of being on the side of equality.  He sees it as a political advantage.

      •  As I said above (0+ / 0-)

        I don't see any federal court case against an anti-gay ban being resolved before 2017 unless both the Governor and AG refuse to appeal a pro-equality ruling at the district court.  (Unless the Supreme Court decides to take it on an expedited basis in 2016)

        So unless both Snyder and Schuette lose in 2014, Michigan will  get marriage equality through the ballot box.  

        I don't understand why the Ds and the unions don't put work for less repeal, marriage equality, and a redistricting initiative simultaneously on the ballot in 2014.  

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