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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/13 (224 comments)

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  •  Bad news/Good news in new NBC poll (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Darth Jeff, KingofSpades, itskevin

    I think everyone has probably seen the bad news, since that's has been in the headlines of several stories. The GOP has the advantage over Dems on several key issues, including +4 on the economy and +7 on foreign policy. The question on foreign policy hasnt been asked since 2006, so I dont know if there are meaningful trends we can look at there. Clearly, Syria is helping GOP; Obama's handling of that issue fell off a cliff from Aug to Sept.

    The data on the economy is also somewhat hard to read. GOP had a bigger advantage on the issue last June(+6). They also had an advantage on the issue through most of 1995 ans 1996, while Dems had the edge in late 2004. In other words, it doesnt line up perfectly with how people vote. But it's certainly a data point to watch for the midterms.

    The good news is there doesnt seem to be any broader trend of people embracing the GOP.

    In fact, possibly the opposite.

    Dems have a 46/43 advantage on the generic ballot, up from a 44 all tie in July. Dems also have a stronger net positive rating(+2) than the GOP(-16). The Dems rating is unchanged from the last reading in late May/early June, while the GOP rating is actually down a net 7 point since then.

    link(PDF).

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