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  •  for what it's worth (4+ / 0-)
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    FG, mrblifil, Enzo Valenzetti, greengemini

    Bush won Ohio in 2004 by about as much as he led in the polling averages. Some places did face terrible voting machine shortages, but I've never seen a strong argument that these actually altered the outcome in Ohio.

    "I am not sure how we got here, but then, I am not really sure where we are." -Susan from 29

    by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Sep 10, 2013 at 06:03:43 AM PDT

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    •  I understand what you're saying. And the best I (21+ / 0-)

      can do is tell you what I saw.  

      In 2008 Ohio went for Obama.  Between 2004 and 2008 what had changed?  I think there was more Dem support on the ground in 2004 than press outlets and media knew about.  That could have come out in voting, I think, if it hadn't been so hard for so many people to vote.  And I saw it.  10 hours waiting in line in many places in central Ohio.  In the rain.  

      What we saw in 2012 in places like Florida, happened in Ohio in 2004.

      That's one more thing to add to my long list of small problems. --my son, age 10

      by concernedamerican on Tue Sep 10, 2013 at 06:15:15 AM PDT

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      •   (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Enzo Valenzetti

        Yikes. Many things changed between 2004 and 2008. The Iraq War lengthened, the economy tanked, people got that much sicker in general of the incumbent....

        I think there was more Dem support on the ground in 2004 than press outlets and media knew about.
        What does that really mean? Does it mean that you think the pre-election polls were "skewed" against Democratic voters?

        You did see many people stuck in line on election day 2004, which stinks. But did you see 120,000 Kerry voters stuck in line and walking away? I doubt it. Even with the terrible lines, the turnout still was high.

        What we saw in 2012 in places like Florida, happened in Ohio in 2004.
        Obama won Florida in 2012 by about a point, which was on par or better than his polling performance.

        Pre-election polling certainly isn't the only way to try to assess the impact of election shenanigans and breakdowns. But it's something.

        "I am not sure how we got here, but then, I am not really sure where we are." -Susan from 29

        by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Sep 10, 2013 at 09:25:39 AM PDT

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