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View Diary: Radio intercepts convince German intel that Assad neither ordered nor approved the chemical attack (320 comments)

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  •  Not Quite (1+ / 0-)
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    Time Waits for no Woman

    My hunch is that a rogue commander launched the chemicals, whether by mistake or on impulse, and that Assad just chose denial and so tacit approval after the fact. But I do see that Assad had something to gain by using them, or seeing them used: committing himself to his Syrian base, showing that he'd defend them by any means no matter the cost. As opposed to condemning his own commanders (no matter how rogue) for destroying opponents Assad has demonized, using power Assad legitimately claims and probably popular among his base.

    Probably not enough of a gain to proactively use the weapons, but enough of a gain to accept their use once too late to stop them. Instead of the alternative that would likely have cost him loyalty from his base, and therefore possibly cost him the war in the longer run.

    "When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro." - HST

    by DocGonzo on Tue Sep 10, 2013 at 08:04:12 AM PDT

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    •  This is the scenario that makes sense (0+ / 0-)

      to me.  Not that I have any evidence for it, or expertise in these matters.

      "A developed country is not where the poor have cars. It's where the rich use public transportation." - Mayor of Bogota

      by Time Waits for no Woman on Tue Sep 10, 2013 at 10:34:12 AM PDT

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