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View Diary: No, Putin isn't being smart. Obama is running rings around him (253 comments)

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  •  No end to the slaughter. (7+ / 0-)

    How follows that? I can´t see it. If someone made all the CW in Syria now magically disapper by magic wand, the civil war would continue. It has reasons, and conditions that drive it, and none has to do with the existence of CW or whether they are used or not.

    So, harm reduction? Only in the narrow sense that the next hundred thousand dead will be due to bullets not gas.

    The CW issue might have made "harm reduction" sense if it had been a sneak side intro into an Assad-removing intervention - Libya style, where a people protection resolution for the Cyrenaika was used as a flexible cover to decide the war against Gaddafi.

    But by simply giving up the CW, and scrupulously acting in good faith on that, Assad takes that option away. Its rational and clever, and it deflects Obama´s threatened intervention into an issue of laws and conventions that has no further bearing on the course of the war, which Assad remains free to win.  

    Assad can begin to play cat and mouse with this obligation when he has decided the war in his favour. And then, when he´s largely in control of Syria again and rebel´s viability gone, would Obama intervene then? To achieve what?

    I cant see this quite as positively as you.

    •  I think that now it's on the agenda (12+ / 0-)

      ...for all those who either prefer or abhor the Pax Americana, the suffering of Syrians will be less easy to hide.

      I wish some kind of humanitarian intervention had happened in Homs two years ago. But Syria is Iraq on stilts, given contiguity with Lebanon and Israel as well as Turkey, and the various proxy wars of Iran and Saudi Arabia have not played out well for anyone.

      So you're right. On its own no chemical weapons response saves lives. But now we know the Syrian implosion risks a regional war perhaps minds will be more focused in brokering cease fires, and eventually some kind of political solution - which will have to come in any event

      The Fall of the House of Murdoch -with Eric Lewis and all the latest Leveson evidence out now!

      by Brit on Wed Sep 11, 2013 at 01:40:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Did/Do you believe CW (7+ / 0-)

      is the reason for this whole dustup?

      I don't. I think it was an opportunity. There are so many layers to this cluster I don't know where to start. CW is way down the list for me. TPTB think it's salient. I don't think that is their true motivation, it's just the PR point for us peons.

      •  Obama´s stance (10+ / 0-)

        makes logical sense if WMD reduction is really his motivation. It is what he really worked on with russia in regard to nuclear disarmament, without regard to whether the public liked it or not. I can believe that, and I can see how this leads logically to hime believeing he does something good if he seizes the opportunity to reduce more loose WMD possession oin the case of Syria.

        The US stance makes much less sense if its really viewed through the actual options in play in Syria. A people´s revolt towards democracy like in Tunisia would of course have been manna from heaven, but that is long since a lost dream. Absent that there is not much good that the US can achieve in Syria. There´s a lot that regional powers can achieve to further their own interests, but their are not the US interests. I have more difficulty berlieveing that Obamas mistakes Turkish or Saudi interests for his own, than that he plays a straight game on WMD, to the disbelief of the entire world.

      •  Where's the proof? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        corvo, aliasalias
      •  An opportunity for WHAT, exactly? (5+ / 0-)

        If you're going to go CT then do it.
        I've seen multiple posts like yours in the past few days, where the poster is sure that a CT is going on but doesn't bother to say what it is.

        I don't know what Putin's motivation is, but President Obama resisted getting involved in Syria for two years despite multiple calls for him to do so by McCain, Clinton, MSM pundits.  Then after the initial small chemical attack occurred months ago, Obama still resisted getting involved.  Only after the recent large scale chemical attack did he decide to intervene.

        Now, if you can provide a CT that explains the above sequence of events, such that we should dismiss the Occam's Razor explanation (i.e. the reason President Obama decided to intervene after the large scale chemical attack after resisting involvement for so long is precisely the occurrence of the large scale chemical attack itself), then do it.

        •  I don't buy the stranger CT (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sylv, dzog, OleHippieChick, Gurnt

          But to be honest, something shifted earlier this year. Maybe it was Kerry's arrival, and his ability to restart Palestinian Israeli talks. Or maybe even Sam Power at the UN. But something shifted before the most recent chemical weapons attack - maybe just the balance of power in the region, or indeed a realisation the conflict would not burnt itself out but would drag Lebanon and Iraq in very soon.

          Like the mortar bombings of Sarajevo market, the latest atrocity was something to leap on given other forces at work - not necessarily evil just because they are clandestine

          The Fall of the House of Murdoch -with Eric Lewis and all the latest Leveson evidence out now!

          by Brit on Wed Sep 11, 2013 at 03:58:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It's not CT. (6+ / 0-)

          The US doesn't give a ratso fatso about other people, or its own people for that matter. Neither does Putin, or any of the other players on this chess board.

          There's the energy pipelines, shipping lanes, Israel, Monarchy v Socialism tensions, Sunni v Shia v Secularism v Sunni subsets v Shia subsets, cultural differences, resentment as to how the borders were drawn way back when, the PNAC plan, the Domino Theory, energy crisis, water crisis, arability crisis......

          I know I've missed a few.

      •  And end to nuclear and chem weapons is (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        tb92, Fogiv, OleHippieChick, Sylv

        A central Obama issue, and has been for most of his public career.

        "It ain't right, Atticus," said Jem. "No, son, it ain't right." --Harper Lee, To Kill a Mockingbird

        by SottoVoce on Wed Sep 11, 2013 at 07:11:51 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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