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View Diary: Economic numbers don't lie, but Republicans like Scott Walker sure do (10 comments)

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  •  On Walker's zombie lie (0+ / 0-)

    There was a certain governor in the not so distant past who made a great big State of the State speech:

    Still, there is much more work to be done in the coming year.  Our top priority is helping the people of our state create more jobs.  As you know, we have an ambitious goal: 250,000 jobs by 2015.

    After all that we’ve gone through in Wisconsin over the past few years, some have suggested that this goal is too difficult to reach.  With the protests and recalls combined with the slow recovery at the national level, the fiscal cliff, and ongoing worries about health care mandates coming out of Washington, they say there are plenty of reasons why it has been hard to create jobs.

    So he was blaming it on the recall even in January.  But wait!
    But in Wisconsin, we don't make excuses... We get results.
    I'm so confused!

    ~

    Now, let's not forget that the QCEW rankings going into the November 2014 election will be those for March 2013 - March 2014, i.e. we now have the starting point for that.

    From Walker's point of view the late spring this year is good, because it delayed seasonal hiring that might have started in March in a normal year and so is a lower base from which to start.  So if spring comes along at a normal time or early next year, March 2014 will have greater jobs numbers just from that rather than from any underlying strength.  On the other hand, it won't make any difference to Politifact since they're (rightly) using only full years of QCEW to track progress on the 250,000 jobs promise, so the last they'll be using before the election will be December 2013's.

    2013Q2 has a few mixed signals: UI claims for mid-March to mid-June were down a little bit more than the same period in 2012; CES shows a gain of 7,400 vs a loss of 2,200 in 2012Q2; while LAUS shows about 22,000 more employed over those three months, it reeks of correction of its divergence from the place of work data over the last year or two so I wouldn't read much into that; then weekend-adjusted withholding taxes were up only 2.4% in June 2013 over June 2012, barely nosing above inflation, suggesting that if jobs go up, wages might go down in real terms.

    Fake candidates nominated by the GOP for the recalls: 6 out of 7. Fake signatures on the recall petitions: 4 out of 1,860,283.

    by GeoffT on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 11:46:12 PM PDT

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