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View Diary: CBS News: Darrell Issa Blows Up at Reporter Over Looming Government Shutdown (Video) (80 comments)

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  •  CA-49 is only R+4 (5+ / 0-)

    In theory, it should be easy to dislodge him with a non-Some Dude candidate, provided we really go after the seat. Is there anyone in the California Legislature willing to go for it? Maybe we could harangue Gavin Newsom into it?

    •  We used (0+ / 0-)

      to live there.  We moved.

    •  Your call man (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KJG52, myboo, Theodore J Pickle

      That's why I also provided the San Diego County Democratic Party information as a way for folks nearby CA-49 to start getting other challengers to emerge so CA-49 Democratic residents have options.  SD Democratic Party is the most active Democratic Party in CA-49 and it also happens to be run by Francine Busby.

      I am not at this point saying Dave Peiser should be the de-facto candidate but we have to get started somewhere.  I mean, with someone like Issa, I'm amazed that no additional Democratic candidates have emerged.  In Rep. Ken Calvert's district (CA-42), which is redder than CA-49 (R+10 to be exact), there are three Democratic candidates in the race right now.  Why Peiser is the only one running in CA-49 I have NO idea.  Apparently Democrats in CA-49 must be scared of Issa or something.  Beats me.

      Note though that 2012 Democratic challenger Jerry Tetalman got 42% of the votes against Issa with ZERO coverage and no support from any groups outside of CA-49 (CA Democratic Party endorsed him but did not give him much ground support).  Tetalman is considered a "some dude" candidate but given 40% of the CA-49 base is Democratic and about 10% is registered Independent (or Decline-to-State), Tetalman also captured 2% of the Independents as well in the election.  What if DCCC and others actually funded the damn race in 2012?  Look at that hypothetical.

      Now also look at Jim Reed in CA-01.  Well, CA-01 according to the Cook Report is R+10 (last I checked) and Jim Reed got defeated by Doug LaMalfa 57% - 43%.  Now new Democratic candidate Heidi Hall has already received over 25,000 donations via Act Blue, which isn't bad considering CA-01 is one of the reddest districts in California.

      All I care about is getting rid of Issa.  If you know of anyone in CA-49 that can run in the 2014 primary along Dave Peiser, by all means, go right ahead and nominate him.  A R+4 shouldn't have just ONE Democratic candidate running.

      But then again, Paul Ryan's WI-01 Congressional District will be having Rob Zerban running again and he got 44% against Ryan.

      •  ns (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sharman

        They're most likely scared of Issa's money advantage. As a gazillionaire, he could bury any serious challenger in ads if he felt threatened. But we need someone who recognizes that ads do NOT, under ANY circumstance, beat a good ground game. That calls for someone who's quite politically savvy, someone who's been in politics for a while.

        I wish I knew alternatives. I'm not even sure if you have to be a resident of a district in order to run for Congress there. If not, well, there's a litany of Dems who could take on Issa. Hell, it's a jungle primary system, so as long as we don't have a clown car kind of race, Issa should still be in for the fight of his life in 2014 or 2016 - particularly if these years turn out to be the Democratic wave years that I predict they will.

        •  There was a good ground game in 2012 (2+ / 0-)

          When I was covering the CA-49 race from September 2012  - November 2012, I remember a Kossack mentioned on one of my diaries that there were Tetalman for Congress campaign yard signs all over Carlsbad, one of the most notable cities on the coast in CA-49.  All Tetalman really did was focus on the ground game and fire up the base.  If anything, he did just that but he failed to get more than say 2% of the Independents.  Had he had a larger operation, it's possible those voting percentages would have risen up at least a few percentage points more (a conservative guess).  Tetalman did get over 110,000 votes though, which isn't bad for a Issa challenger.

          However, Issa's money advantage really shouldn't deter any Democratic challenger:

          1)  Issa never really campaigned at all or really had a campaign in 2012.  He just went to Congress, had occasional fundraisers or appearances and got re-elected.

          2)  Richard Pombo was a Republican Congressman who represented the same distinct that Rep. Jerry Mcnerney now represents.  Pombo had a large war chest but he was eventually toppled by Mcnerney in 2006.  Since then, Mcnerney has won re-election three times and even survived the horrible, toxic campaign season of 2010 when the Tea Party had whipped the Democrats hard.

          3)  Because California is becoming bluer and bluer every year, unfortunately Issa will also be dealing with a changing demographic, which means his district will eventually become (may even start becoming right now) a more swing district say by 2016 or 2018).  

          I'll put it this way, if Issa didn't have his wealth or campaign war chest or if he retired, CA-49 would be a prime pickup for the Democratic Party.

    •  Is that before or after redistricting? n/t (0+ / 0-)

      Gondwana has always been at war with Laurasia.

      by AaronInSanDiego on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 06:55:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  After (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AaronInSanDiego

        AFAIK all of Cook's PVI data is current.

      •  It's after redistricting (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        AaronInSanDiego

        Issa's old district, which covered more territory in Riverside County (traditionally a GOP stronghold), was probably at a higher R+ rating.

        Nowadays, the biggest portion of CA-49 is based in San Diego County, which includes Carlsbad, Encitias, Vista, Oceanside, etc.  San Diego County, by the way, nowadays, is getting more Democratic voters across the board so while not every Congressional district is represented by a Democrat, the demographic changes are happening overtime.

        There's definitely room for growth for Democrats in San Diego County and CA-49 is no exception.  If there's any chance to start building the base, there's no reason why not given CA-49 is R+4.

    •  We'll need Newsom (0+ / 0-)

      To run for Governor if Brown decides to retire.  Actually, I'd love it if we take back the House and reduce Issa to a nobody like he was when we held the House.  This is if we can't win his seat in 2014.

      Never be afraid to voice your opinion and fight for it . Corporations aren't people, they're Republicans (Rev Al Sharpton 10/7/2011) Voting is a louder voice than a bullhorn.

      by Rosalie907 on Sun Sep 29, 2013 at 09:09:50 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ns (0+ / 0-)

        I think we can say that California's governor mansion will be safely Democratic for at least the next two decades. Crucifying Issa is more important. He deserves to pay for BEENGGHAAZZZIIIII.

      •  We can build the Democratic base in CA-49 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GleninCA

        At the very least, a Democratic nominee in 2014 (whether Dave Peiser or someone else) loses to Issa but the Democratic Party is able to register and fire up the base in CA-49 to the point where the R+4 rating becomes a R+2 or lower rating.

        I mean, there are quite a number of Democrats in CA-49 and it's got quite a few local Democratic parties.  The district is NOT that red.  Not even close compared to  John Boner's OH-08 district, which is R+15 and from what I've heard, a toxic environment for Democrats right now.

        The Cook Report by the way needs to update it's rating on Issa's district from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican" or "Lean Republican."  Rep. David Joyce is in the OH-14 Congressional District and it's got a PVI of R+4, the same as Darrell Issa's CA-49 district.  Why OH-14 gets "Lean Republican" and not CA-49 is beyond me.

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