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View Diary: Dems turned out for local NC elections yesterday, good sign for 2014 (106 comments)

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  •  No. He doesn't disagree. Some of the liberal... (1+ / 0-)

    ...based was demoralized, it is true. But he points out, repeatedly, that the base turned out.

    It was new young voters and independents who had turned out strongly in 2006 (and 2008) who didn't show up at the polls in such percentages in 2010.

    In fact, when I first started pointing that out in June 2010 that the November elections were headed for disaster based on what we were hearing in door-to-door conversations in our early precinct work (100 precincts blue to purplish), many here said that was baloney. Some even went so far as to outrageously claim that we messengers were trying to suppress the vote because we were anti-Obama. By October, nobody was saying the disaster wasn't coming. But some were saying we were at fault for it. Just as some still say so.

    Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

    by Meteor Blades on Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 04:39:33 PM PDT

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    •  no offense but that strikes me as semantics (0+ / 0-)

      Minorities, the youth, independents those are all our base.

      I wasn't here in June 2010 so I'm not going to speak to what was and wasn't said then. What I will say is democrats didn't turn out in 2010 and that's just a fact. Now if you want to slice that pie up we can but honestly there's going to be some definitional challenges there (just what precisely is say a progress vs (fill in the blank).

      And to be clear I think there's plenty of blame to go around for 2010. Yes I think the elements within the democratic party and this blog that seem incapable of accepting we are winning or progress in general probably have more of the fault there then others but I am of the mind that there is also something more that can be done and fault generally isn't on any one 'side'.

      But that's just how I see it.

      Der Weg ist das Ziel

      by duhban on Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 07:38:08 PM PDT

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      •  You're still missing the point that has been... (0+ / 0-)

        ...explained here by others as well as me.

        Nobody has claimed that it was Democrats turned out in the numbers we should have been able to expect. The bogus claim has always been that liberals didn't turn out. And that they were at fault for the losses.

        Liberals ≠ Democrats. Liberals turned out at the same percentage in 2010 as in 2006, 20% of the electorate. So it can hardly be said they stayed home. In 2006, 87% of them voted for Democrats. In 2010, 90% of them did, according to exit polls.

        Minorities are part of the base. African Americans raised their turnout percentage in 2010 over 2006 by 2.7 percent.

        The youngest voters are not really part of the party base until they become reliable voters, that is, when they can be counted on to turn out consistently. When they do turn out, they indeed tend to vote more Democratically than other cohorts. But, in most cases, getting them to turn out reliably takes a few election cycles. Young people voted in above-average historical percentages in 2006 but below-average in 2010. So not yet reliable.

        Independents, that is, people who vote for Republicans or third party candidates or Democrats depending on how they are judging matters feeling in a particular election are obviously not the Democratic base. Do I really need to explain this fact? Compared with 2006, they stayed home or voted in large numbers for somebody other than Democrats in 2010.

        Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

        by Meteor Blades on Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 08:25:51 PM PDT

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        •  I get your point (0+ / 0-)

          I'm skeptical about it's validity.

          I mean just how do you define 'liberal'? Hell even if you asked people here on a progressive blog you'd get a slew of answers. As such I remain unconvinced of the statistical validity of the polling done on this topic.

          To me what matters is democrats didn't turn out. I'm not going to argue with you whether 'liberals' turned out more or less. I'm on the whole uninterested in it as I regard it as a distraction and part of the blame game. What matters especially on off years is that we, democrats turn out to support our party. That is what gets us results and I don't care what label you assign to yourself in the process.

          Der Weg ist das Ziel

          by duhban on Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 08:48:25 PM PDT

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          •  I didn't define it. The exit pollsters asked ... (0+ / 0-)

            ...voters emerging from the polls how they self-identified.

            The point of this from the beginning is that some folks here have claimed it was liberals and others on the left who didn't turn out. THAT is the blame game that's been going on.

            I don't need to be told about turnout needs. Except in 2012, when I had just moved, and two elections in the mid-'80s when I was often in Central America, I have walked precincts for the Democrats in every election  since 1964, four years before I could vote.

            Don't tell me what you believe, show me what you do and I will tell you what you believe.

            by Meteor Blades on Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 09:37:07 PM PDT

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            •  Which is in my opinion exactly the point (0+ / 0-)

              Self identification is probably the weakest method for statistical analysis there is. I'd wager there's little difference in overall politics  between the two of us and yet I'd never self identify in any way shape or form. Let alone as a 'liberal'.

              I get your point but it doesn't relate to the point I was making or in my opinion the point that was made here by Markos.

              You have a good night.

              Der Weg ist das Ziel

              by duhban on Thu Oct 10, 2013 at 09:58:53 PM PDT

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