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View Diary: Breaking down the votes from the shutdown's end (115 comments)

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  •  Excellent analysis! -- Opportunities for 2014 (9+ / 0-)

    I second that. David, your excellent analysis answers fully the questions I’ve been asking myself.

    Most importantly, your geographic and statistical breakdown charts election vulnerabilities.

    Any chance you have a updated news on the Democratic ad campaign against Republican incumbents? I would be most curious in an analysis that highlights where there are opportunities that should be seized immediately.

    Republican incumbents should be made to personally "own" the heinous shutdown and reckless risk to debt default -- as well as the $ 24 billion in economic damage done.

    Seems to me the best time to remind voters and "glue" Republican politicians to their responsibility is NOW. After all, now is when voter anger and disgust is strongest.

    And voters will remember in 2014.
    If we strongly remind them now.

    •  Thank You, David Jarman (4+ / 0-)

      This is an excellent piece of analysis.

      If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.

      by cultjake on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 06:40:13 AM PDT

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    •  Opportunities? Only if we solve the problem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541, MichaelNY

      described by Chris Hayes in "Can Dems leverage passion in off-year elections?":

      There are two fundamentally different electorates in the US: one that comes out to elect a president and one that votes when the president is not on the ballot.
      He further explains that in elections it is the nature of the electorate that turns out for a particular election, not "the will of the people" that determines outcome. Until "our electorate" learns that off years can actually determine more in their daily lives than big hoopla presidential years we are going to have this pendulum swinging in which done/undone, done/undone continues.

      Consider, because the 2010 "off year" determined a number of governorships, composition of state legislatures and thus the Congressional district map for a decade many who voted for "change" in 2008 now see restrictions of women's health, basic rights to organize and even vote. Anybody sitting out in 2010 is truly whining if they complain about "gerrymandering" in their states or any of the other down sides.

      Every election is important. Every vote does count (except those thrown away in "protest" to forlorn hope third candidates). Voting is indeed use it or lose it as people in quite a few states are finding now.

      The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

      by pelagicray on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 07:33:03 AM PDT

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      •  Better link to the video: (0+ / 0-)

        The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

        by pelagicray on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 07:35:13 AM PDT

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      •  Telling people they are "whining" (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        a2nite

        because their state party (Ohio) tried to ram an anti-choice, anti-gay extremist down their throats in 2010 is not going to be productive.  And now the DCCC is fawning all over this same person who helped us lose the governorship in 2010.

        Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

        by anastasia p on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 08:05:12 AM PDT

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        •  Repeat—don't show up for an election and you get (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          what the TP/GOP that does show up give you. In my state a bunch of similar whiners did not like a lackluster, "conservadem" named Deeds and "abstained" or otherwise threw away their vote. So, to protest that candidate they didn't much like we got the mad "Cooch" as AG so he could bully the state medical board into approving exceptional abortion and women's health clinic regulations along with suits to preserve "sodomy" laws, persecute climate scientists and more. Worse, we got a whole bunch of down ticket TP types booting out damn good Democrats who supported probably most of the things those brilliant asshat "abstainers" supported.

          Brilliant strategy, just fucking brilliant, that you seem to support. Such people need to face what they cause and I don't give a damn about their poor little hearts. As far as I am concerned they are deserters during a real battle for this nation.

          The only foes that threaten America are the enemies at home, and those are ignorance, superstition, and incompetence. [Elbert Hubbard]

          by pelagicray on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 08:22:35 AM PDT

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    •  Mike Turner is probably invulnerable (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Amber6541, janinsanfran, emops

      We lost overwhelming in 2012 with an outstanding candidate who raised money, campaigned tirelessly, and was probably the very best recruit we could expect in this district. There were redistricting factors — he got new territory he'd never run in before, much of it was her home area — that should have been in our favor. But the result was lopsided. There's probably no getting  a better candidate than Sharen Neuhardt. Turner winning more than 60% of the vote and Sharen not even breaking 40% was so disappointing.

      Turner, like the now-retired LaTourette in Oh-14, is inexplicably bulletproof. He manages to have a moderate image with a hardcore conservative voting record. Plus Montgomery County (Dayton), the core of the district, although very urban, has turnout issues. It is one of the hardest places in Ohio to get Democrats to vote.

      Our swing district — our only one — is Oh-14 where LaTourette's inexplicable popularity caused the mapmakers to no be so diligent in protecting GOP advantage. LaTourette unexpectedly retired after the maps were in place. His successor David Joyce voted yes. He's extremely vulnerable.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 08:03:23 AM PDT

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    •  Thanks for (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      the kind words. Which ad campaign were you thinking of? Was it the Americans United for Change campaign in 10 districts? A number of orgs (like the NEA) also ran shutdown ads, but that was probably the most pervasive one. I think the campaign must be over by now, not just because the shutdown is over but because it's terribly expensive to run TV spots, especially for more than a week.

      If you were wondering what sort of an impact it had, 5 of the recipients voted yes and 5 voted no: Hanna (NY-22), Latham (IA-03), Benishek (MI-01), Barletta (PA-11), and Davis (IL-13) voted yes, while Denham (CA-10), Walberg (MI-07), Sean Duffy (WI-07), Johnson (OH-06), and Barr (KY-06). That sounds fairly impressive, but the sample they chose was already pretty evenly split between establishmentarians and tea partiers, and I would have expected those 10 Reps. to split the way they did, even without the pressure of an ad campaign. (I probably would have expected Denham to be a 'yes' and Benishek to be a 'no,' but you can never predict that kind of thing perfectly.)

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Fri Oct 18, 2013 at 10:25:24 AM PDT

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