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View Diary: An Alternate Analysis of Virginia's Election Results (77 comments)

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  •  can't tell what you mean by "margin of error" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    icemilkcoffee, wdrath, sny

    It's one thing when a particular poll might be off by 3-4 points; it's another thing when the polls are off by an average of about 3 points. That isn't a matter of "margin of error"; it doesn't look like random sampling error at all.

    I haven't looked closely, but if it's true that the polls were more accurate for lieutenant governor and AG than for governor, then it isn't obvious that voter suppression efforts or complacency can explain the divergence.

    "I am not sure how we got here, but then, I am not really sure where we are." -Susan from 29

    by HudsonValleyMark on Wed Nov 06, 2013 at 12:44:05 PM PST

    •  what's meant here by me is that... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      HudsonValleyMark, slothlax

      ...any combination of factors, from the usual margins of error in polls to voter suppression and complacency all may well have played a part. But even factoring all those together, the polls were, essentially, correct.

      It doesn't seem implausible to me that most or all polls could have been off by the same approximate amount (3-4 points), in terms of gauging exact support for candidates, especially when turnout is such a crucial factor.(It's one thing to tell a pollster you plan to vote...and quite another to actually do so.)

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