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View Diary: America’s health care cost slowdown and the disappearing debt (66 comments)

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  •  CBO does not have a strong record in forecasting (1+ / 0-)
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    where reality comes even remotely close to forecast.  Taking a 5 year forecast is ok - 20 or 30 years implies forecasting abilities CBO just doesn't have.  At best, long term forecasts may hint than an inherently bad problem will result which is quite useful, but not forecasting problems does not mean major problems will not occur.

    As these measures are frequently against GDP, slower growth than forecasted can make the results far worse very quickly - especially over long times.

    As major changes are being made to healthcare economics with ACA, and major parts of ACA are just starting to go into effect, the reliability of CBO forecasts are far lower than when no policy changes are made.  If is also likely other changes to healthcare policy will occur after seeing the impact of ACA 1.0 after it is more fully implemented in 2015 and 2016.

    The most important way to protect the environment is not to have more than one child.

    by nextstep on Sun Nov 24, 2013 at 02:11:23 PM PST

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