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View Diary: A Big Week for Kentucky's Insurance Exchange (30 comments)

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  •  Kentucky leads, but math is ugly (1+ / 0-)
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    catullus

    Kentucky is being hailed as what is going right with the ACA.  But, the math is still horrible.

    Remember, there are two key numbers: 7 million and 50%.  There must be 7 million new paying insurance buyers for the system to remain solvent.  And, the ratio of new medicaid participants must be roughly in a 1:1 ratio.

    So far, of the 51 jurisdictions (States + D.C.) only Connecticut is achieving the desired ratio.

    As far as signups, Kentucky is reporting 10,800 new paying insurance customers.  In order, to "pull their weight" Kentucky must sell a total of roughly 97,600 policies by April.  

    Now, before you complain - "Yes" more people will sign up as we approach April.  But, you also have to factor in that the ratio of signups is inflated because not everyone is going to pay their bill.

    In short, even with the "good" numbers in Kentucky you're still likely looking at coming up short (paying customers & ratio) meaning you've got a death spiral.  And, Kentucky is the best case scenario.

    Plus, none of this factors in the President's fix which even though being rejected in many jurisdictions will cut funding to ACA where implemented. Aggravating these problems.

    •  Factor in the end stages too (0+ / 0-)

      People who are eligible for Medicaid sign up for Medicaid, and that's that.

      People who are buying insurance have a couple of additional steps that take some time: choosing the plan, perhaps from dozens of plans; and sending in their payment for the first month.

      They're not completely finished until the insurer gets the money.

      If the money isn't due until mid-Decembr for January 1, that's when the flurry of payments will happened. Mid-January for people starting February 1. And so on.

      •  Right, (0+ / 0-)

        I get that.

        What I'm saying is you've got 11,000 hypothetical new policy holders, but some unknown - possibly larger percentage - of them aren't going to meet the payment terms so the crappy figures we're seeing are actually inflated.  The question is by how much.

        •  You are assuming people are stupid (0+ / 0-)

          and that they don't know the risks. That they are merely signing up to avoid the penalty. I think the number will be small.

          I'm asking you to believe. Not in my ability to bring about real change in Washington ... *I'm asking you to believe in yours.* Barack Obama

          by samddobermann on Sun Nov 24, 2013 at 04:03:02 AM PST

          [ Parent ]

    •  But you are wrong about Medicaid signups not (0+ / 0-)

      helping. Anyone getting Medicaid will now be able to go to clinics and also get more team health care provision which will save a lot of money in the short run and more in the long run.

      When people with multiple ailments are treated properly and not just for acute symptoms in isolated ER visits costs go down. Just avoiding one of two hospitalizations a year save the systems lots.

      All that helps.

      And when some are on Medicaid some small businesses will be more likely to insure their remaining employees.

      I'm asking you to believe. Not in my ability to bring about real change in Washington ... *I'm asking you to believe in yours.* Barack Obama

      by samddobermann on Sun Nov 24, 2013 at 04:01:14 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

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