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View Diary: By hiring a climate disinformer, Nate Silver undermines his entire premise of data-driven journalism (204 comments)

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  •  Disappointing (12+ / 0-)

    ... that he'd be so blind about the evidence.

    It is a much larger phenomenon than an election or a competitive sport. It's a shame he's refusing the effort to get to know enough about it to have a decent understanding of it. He'd likely be damned good at it if he put his mind to it.

    It's been a busy several years for Nate. He might be getting a little burned out, not wanting to make the effort to really understand it. That's the most diplomatic explanation I can cook up. He's tired.

    Disappointing. Really disappointing.

    But his predictions for Super Tuesday in 2008 kinda sucked. He retooled it for awhile before he got really good. Maybe he'll learn from being so wrong on this.

    Mark Twain: It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

    by Land of Enchantment on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 12:16:10 PM PDT

    •  You don't have to make a lot of effort (7+ / 0-)

      not to hire a guy whose work on a topic is so controversial and tainted. This isn't even an issue I follow much but I would know better, and I have put almost no effort into understanding it.

      Ed FitzGerald for governor Of Ohio. Women's lives depend on it. http://www.edfitzgeraldforohio.com/

      by anastasia p on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 12:35:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  you're too kind (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cocinero, whl

      Nate believes this. He's already adopted the view the climate science is suspect and global warming is overhyped.

      that's why he hired Pielke for his site.

      An ambulance can only go so fast - Neil Young

      by mightymouse on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 02:07:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  not science (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      peregrine kate, mightymouse

      What 538 is closer to what was done in the time before we had modern science.  Make some observations, run some numbers, try to guess what might happen, thinking that being mostly correct is good enough.  Statistics and science grew up together, but science is about underlying physical models that consistently explain the world, while statistics merely worry about percentages, and is tolerant to widely incorrect conclusions.  For instance 538 gets many things incorrect, but it is forgiven because it is not held up to the same standards as science.

      I am not surprised that Silver got this wrong, because in his world everything is possible.  In the next presidential election, anyone could win, and, over time, his techniques will determine who is most likely to win.  This is not true in science.  Everything is not possible.  We cannot just take a survey and decide that climate change is 70% not human related.

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