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View Diary: By hiring a climate disinformer, Nate Silver undermines his entire premise of data-driven journalism (204 comments)

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  •  My favorite comment about Poblano's accuracy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Laurence Lewis, jck, k9disc

    was in a diary I wrote in 2008 during the still Hot Democratic Primary about why MyDD was wrong about forecasting a McCain victory versus Obama, and why their extrapolation of the primary data to a general election was flawed,  a well-respected DK-er and also statistician responded to my diary, thusly:

    DKos's poblano agrees (0+ / 0-)

    Dkos's own pollwatcher extraordaire, poblano, pretty much agrees with the current polling at MyDD; see poblano's personal website, fivethirtyeight.com for more detailed analysis.

    If you don't stand for something, you'll stand for anything.

    by XXX on Mon Apr 14, 2008 at 10:52:08 AM EDT  

    History has proven that Poblano aka Nate Silver was WRONG in his use of primary data to forecast a McCain victory against Obama in 2008.  I am not a statistician, I am an f*ing writer, but even I could see that the premise for the forecast was BS.  

    Nate is a detail man, he doesn't see the forest, he sees the leaf, and extrapolates to large general trends from there.  He assume because it works in some cases, it works in all cases.  Hubris.

    "Out of Many, One Nation." This is the great promise of these United States of America -9.75 -6.87

    by Uncle Moji on Sun Mar 23, 2014 at 03:53:15 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

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