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View Diary: Breaking: Americans Find Something Else Not To Effing Believe In. (299 comments)

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  •  here's the thing (0+ / 0-)
    Most volatile time of all is recently. No four or six point swings prior to the last few years.
    You're inferring that from very sketchy evidence. Essentially there is one poll result "out of line" with the others, perhaps due to sampling error (bear in mind that we should expect some poll results to be outside the MoE) or conceivably a question order effect.

    Also bear in mind that the SE of a proportion is a function of the proportion, so we expect to see the sample proportions for the large categories "moving" more than the proportions for the small category even if the population isn't changing at all.

    I'm not slavishly wedded to the null hypothesis (in social science, it generally isn't literally true), but the broad-brush generalizations seem oddly situated in a thread about science. Also, if Republicans want to bury reality in a phony culture war, we don't have to go out of our way to help them.

    "Democracy is a political system for people who are not sure they are right." —E. E. Schattschneider

    by HudsonValleyMark on Wed Apr 23, 2014 at 08:51:27 AM PDT

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