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Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz
by Malachite on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 11:08:04 PM PDT
[ Parent ]
"He knows nothing, and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know. In this latter particular, I seem to have a slight advantage" - Socrates
by benb on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 11:25:19 PM PDT
Similarly, we have the eclipse experiment of 1919. If Einstein's theory of gravitation were bogus, star positions as recorded during the eclipse would be spatially equivalent to their positions recorded prior to the eclipse. But according to Einstein's theory, the mass of our sun would be sufficient to "bend" the light of distant stars as it passed the sun. This theory by its nature gives rise to such a risky prediction. It is therefore attributed as a scientific theory. The severity of the test one can devise for a theory defines its scientific nature.
by Malachite on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 11:49:07 PM PDT
In God we trust. All others must pay cash.
by yet another liberal on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:30:15 AM PDT
</snark>
It's still upsetting for some people to know that the hippies were the ones telling the truth about Vietnam and trying to help America. - Anonymous
by eunichorn on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 11:41:22 AM PDT
I understand that Relativity has experiments that prove it. But they are evidence of the theory, not the theory itself. Just as evolution is a theory and need not articulate its evidence when described. However, it can be articulated when we have a debate. My side of the debate is presented here.
by benb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:06:43 PM PDT
Base (building block) sequences change from species to species in the same protein or gene sequences. The change in a particular protein or nucleic acid is a measure of the divergence of those species. The fosil record also shows the divergence of species.
Comparing the evolutionary trees generated from fosil evidence with the tree results gathered from the biochemical analysis of existing species yields compatible results that confirm the correctness of the fosil evidence.
The same results from two very different techniques. When both biochemistry and the fosil record provide the same results for the divergence of existing species, then the need for falsifiablity is satisfied as is the requirement for prediction.
cheers
by OmegaHydroxy on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 04:18:26 PM PDT
For example, is George Bush the president of the US? (Notwithstanding stolen elections, etc). The probability of this being true is very close to 100%, and the probability of it being false is close to 0%. But, it is never zero. There is a non-zero probability that any arbitrary crazy-ass thing you can think of is true.
The problem, though, is that the above is no way to run a thinking mind in the real world from day to day. You have to make real binary decisions about whether to do something or not do something, and you can't be constantly confused by doubting reality, so most of these probabilities from an epistemological standpoint can just be rounded off to a 0 or a 1 so you can get some actual work done.
Evolution is both a fact and a theory. From a fact perspective, evolution as an explanation for life has a probability so close to 100% that the remainder can just be discarded. From a theory perspective, evolution has tremendous predictive power.
In any case, I think the epistemological underpinnings of science are something that most people don't understand, and the idea that nothing is certain in science can be frightening and confusing (and misleading if used for devious purposes as the IDers do).
(-5.50,-6.67): Left Libertarian
by Sparhawk on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:40:56 AM PDT
Brilliant. I want it for a sig.
KO sez..."All Hail the Prophetic Gut!" Also, Visit Scenic Buttercupia!
by JLongs on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 01:44:28 PM PDT
by Sparhawk on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 04:15:01 PM PDT
by JLongs on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 04:35:59 PM PDT
;-)
cheers,
Mitch Gore
Wanna win in '08...?
Put your money where your mouth is.
by Lestatdelc on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 06:31:45 PM PDT
However, there are millions of ways that evolutionary theory could have been falsified. JBS Haldane famously gave the example of "fossil rabbits in the Precambrian" (i.e. from before life began on land) -- they don't exist.
The molecular evidence of evolution could have failed to match the fossil evidence from paleontology, but it did not.
The radioactive dates assigned to fossils could have been inconsistent with evidence from geological sediments -- it wasn't.
I could go on, but my point is that it's better to think about real ways that scientists have tested a theory than worry about the abstract concerns of philosophers -- they've spent centuries merely catching up with the practice of science.
by theodicey on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 11:41:37 PM PDT
There's a problem with saying that there are a million ways to "falsify" evolutionary theory: which of these arises from a risky prediction? To what extent does the Haldane example facilitate corroboration of the theory? If we don't observe fossil rabbits in the PreCambrian period, to what extent do we conclude that we have learned something about the applicability of evolutionary theory? I can't say that we learn absolutely nothing from this case, but its anecdotal form attributes little in the way of meaningful evidence. The proper question to ask is what is the probability that the theory is still true or false in the presence or absence of the observation. Scientists would say that this is therefore not a severe test, and thus it does little to establish evolutionary theory as scientific.
I think most scientists find the work of Popper, Kuhn, Lakatos, Scheffler, Salmon, Hacking, Mayo, etc.. as quite relevant to the practice of science. Kuhn's "Structure of Scientific Revolutions" didn't make the NYTimes 100 most influential books since WWII for nothing. But this is a digression.
by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:25:46 AM PDT
by bilge on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:49:49 AM PDT
by Smallbottle on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 06:06:21 AM PDT
Can I get a mint? I have Scalitosis
by Gleeb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 01:01:47 PM PDT
-6.88/-5.64 * We won! We won!.... Now back on your heads.
by John West on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:17:51 AM PDT
by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:30:26 AM PDT
by jqb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 01:28:17 AM PDT
IDC makes no such predictions. IDC is consistent with a Young Universe or an old one. It is consistent with Special Creation of Kinds or Baramins, and it is consistent with theistic evolution. It is consistent with common descent and it is consistent separate design. It works with extra-universal aliens or armies of supernatural critters. It works for a universe created lat wednesday, it works for one created 14 BYA.
It is consistent with anything, because a vague, omnipotent designer can do anything. There is no evidence which can falsify that claim. And that's why IDC as it is currently presented is not science and never will be.
Read UTI, your free thought forum
by DarkSyde on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:00:13 AM PDT
by captainahab on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:48:08 AM PDT
by JLongs on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 01:46:02 PM PDT
The time has come to start thinking less about Motherland and Fatherland and more about our Brotherlands and Sisterlands.
by Crowdog on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 06:43:55 AM PDT
by Black Maned Pensator on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 10:41:46 AM PDT
Either of those things is fine and, God Bless America, I'm all for that. But not in a SCIENCE class.
What is so difficult to understand about that? Of course, we know the answer: there's nothing difficult to understand about separating church and state (at least not on the level we're talking about re: this ID piffle and evolution and teaching the origin of the species in science classes). No, the concept's pretty easy to grasp -- what the IDers want to do is do away with that separation and tear down that wall between church and state and, in this case, do it in what they think is a clever, sneaky, back door manner.
BenGoshi _________________
"We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown
by BenGoshi on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 07:06:33 AM PDT
The question that arises here is to what extent does evolutionary theory actually entail the outcomes or predictions that have been noted. To what extent would we overthrow the theory if an ostensible counter-observation were made? What sort of competing theory is available that is entirely naturalistic that doesn't somehow fall into an evolutionary rubric? I can't imagine a priori what that would resemble.
And notice interestingly that the actual observations made with respect this theory (or any theory for that matter) do not bear witness to its scientific status. A theory can in fact turn out to be grossly false in the minds of scientists but still be wonderfully scientific. It's all about the severity of the testing possible on the basis of that theory. We can attribute this particular quality without stepping foot into the field. Again it doesn't have to turn out to be true to be scientific. That sounds nutty at first but it resonates with scientific inference.
by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 08:02:46 AM PDT
In fact, every naturalistic theory is concerned with change, in particular, describing the mechanisms of change. Some aspects of a natural event are regarded as stable or permanent with regard to that event. It is through observation of the actions and relationships of those stable elements or inferences to their relationships and actions that one arrives at a particular description of that event. Believing that macroevolution lies outside the realms of testable science confuses the relative permanence of some aspects of biology, regarded as permanent for certain purposes, with an absolute metaphysical permanence.
Darwinian macroevolution is indeed a scientific theory. It makes different predictions than other (Lamarkian) evolutionary theories. What I think is funny is that folks think ID is just creationism in "new" clothes or some sort of "new" idea. William Paley elucidated the theory well before Darwin, in fact, Paley was quite revered by Darwin. (Darwin intentionally uses the same form of argument (argument by analogy) as Paley. And ID was defeated even before Paley published his idea by David Hume, who never met a proof for the existence of God he couldn't completely destroy.
While the voices of dissent are many, reason has but one voice. -lizardbox
by Nellebracht on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:47:30 AM PDT
by benb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:11:40 PM PDT
Either way it's evolution. The term gets used by creationists so that they're able to admit the evolution for which there is good lab evidence without having to buy the whole origins-of-species sort of evolution.
I refuse to use the word; I don't think it's useful, and it just feeds into their frame.
Je suis inondé de déesses
by Marc in KS on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 06:11:44 AM PDT
by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 08:38:17 AM PDT
Is that micro? Or is that macro?
by yet another liberal on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 10:09:42 AM PDT
I would think that in discussions wherein you want to talk about a smaller-scope processes, you could just say "I'm talking about small-scope inference, here," and then just go on and talk and use the word "evolution."
This is not different from the day I saw the phrase "Tax Relief" in a NY Times headline. I thought, shit, we're done, now...
So I bridle when I hear people who know evolution use terms coined (or co-opted) by creationists. Then we're arguing on their terms, and those arguments we cannot win effectively.
by Marc in KS on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 10:31:49 AM PDT
by Cache on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:44:50 AM PDT
So the Intelligent Design emphasis on discrediting Darwin in their discussion demonstrates that they are out of touch with the vital, changing aspects of real science and its treatment evolution as a real theory. Evolutionary scientists are always discussing things like horizontal gene transfer and gene convergence, and models for molecular clocks, and their limitations. They are pointing out the relevance of these topics for modern life, like antibiotic resistance in HIV and rapid evolution of influenza virus through recombination of the 9 smaller RNA genomes within the virus.
By focussing on creation vs. Darwin, they miss the point of 150 years of additional research and a HUGE explosion of genomics information. Those ID people saying molecules are too too fabulous to have happened by accident should wander around in the genomic databases a bit and see the massive code reuse.
Computer folks out there know that you don't just redesign code from scratch every time you want to write a program. You rework old portions- sometimes using something slower and glitchier, in order to get a job done quickly. Molecular evolution is full of similar code reuse, where code replacement would work more efficiently. It is insulting and bogus and reflects limited understanding of new information and predictions. Code reuse is a prediction of natural selection models, not intelligent design.
You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. Aldous Huxley
by murrayewv on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:01:32 AM PDT
by Cache on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 03:42:15 AM PDT
by murrayewv on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:29:27 AM PDT
Even if this were true, it would have no bearing on whether the theory of evolution is scientific -- the falsifiability of the theory of evolution is well established in both the scientific and philosophy of science literature.
by jqb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 01:26:40 AM PDT
A lot.
by mmacdDE on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 03:43:15 AM PDT
"Treat them with humanity. Let them have no reason to complain of our copying the brutal example of the British army."
by otto on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:30:05 AM PDT
by DarkSyde on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:39:39 AM PDT
Annie
by akeitz on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 07:09:34 AM PDT
Dr. Scott had some interesting points from the trial including...
The prepublication manuscript of Of Pandas And People (OPAP) was subpoenaed, and all the references in the published book to Intelligent Design were written as Creationism in he manuscript. Quack quack.
A rhetorical trick: in the second edition of OPAP, all references to "evolution" were replaced with "Darwinism" in order to push their frame of a cult of Darwin.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. -Albert Einstein
by Primordial Ooze on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:52:57 AM PDT
by Ernest T Bass on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:14:52 AM PDT
by Ben VL on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 06:00:45 AM PDT
Presuming for the sake of argument "God," either God can do this, or not. If God can do this — which is the implicit claim of the Creationist crowd — then you have to make some theological excuse for why he doesn't. Perhaps our laboratories don't know how to invoke Him effectively? If that's the case, then we should work on how to pray better. But who can teach that? Any Creationist leader who can't even pray effectively enough to get God to generate new examples of complex life from nothing is not the one to teach our scientists how to pray, obviously.
Or maybe we have to allow the excuse of "God could do it but He doesn't want to." So you posit a God who for some reason wants us to believe He can do it, but doesn't want that badly enough to actually cooperate in a laboratory to prove His powers. That's like the child who wants us to believe he's gifted but won't work in school.
There's an historically-recent notion that God doesn't want to be provable by science, since somehow that would undermine the value of faith. That notion only came into vogue with the failure of science to prove God. All of those at the cusp of modern science, from Newton to Descartes and beyond, were firm in their belief that science would prove the existence and nature of God. Faith in proof and faith in God were the same thing.
Well, faith in proof has proved of lasting power; faith in God we can at best make excuses for, as having some psychological value despite the proofs of science demonstrating that the greater part of most religions, taken at all literally, are flat-out false. We can still have religion along with science, but only if religion yeilds to proof. We must return to the faith, at the root of science, that reality, when openly explored and tested, will not deceive us.
To not believe in reality, that is, to believe that reality lies, while the fantasies written up in certain old books — internally contradictory as they are — somehow do not, that's batshit fucking insane at this point in history. We've got a major mental health crisis on our hands. Something like half the population of the most nuclear-armed nation is batshit fucking insane, and even thinks their God might be happier if they just destroyed our planet.
And that's why it's so important they not be enabled to use our schools to recruit youth into their cultish madness.
by wytcld on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 07:24:30 AM PDT
In any case it's absolutely not true that evolution is unfalsifiable. Every fossil found, every new species identified, every strand of DNA sequenced, and every mutation observed is a test of evolutionary theory. It stands up to every test.
How to falsify it? Find a fossil of a griffon (i.e. a bird/mammal intermediate).
Bang, right there you've falsified a major section of the accepted evolutionary history of vertebrates, because mammals and birds are expected to have come from different branches of early reptiles, and there should be no ancestor which shares characteristics of both.
by eyelessgame on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 08:48:12 AM PDT
by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:49:35 AM PDT
Heliocentrism was inferred from the phases of Venus, and much later from the aberration of light and, still later, from stellar parallax. Evolution, and common descent, can be inferred independently from multiple sources: biogeography, the fossil record, observed adaptation, the mechanisms of inheritance, the Linnaean nested hierarchy, and the genetic nested hierarchy.
In any case, you didn't claim width of inference, you claimed lack of falsifiability. I have challenged that in a way that I think is valid. I invite you to defend or retract your claim of lack of falsifiability, and then, if you like, move on to the scope of inference.
by eyelessgame on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:05:22 PM PDT
From what I'm reading, there are particular stellar parallax measurements which are expected in a heliocentric solar system. A suite of such measurements defines the orbital motion of the planets over time. Heliocentrism then predicts that such measurements with respect to Mars will show that Mars rotates about the Sun. This is a risky prediction because any statistically significant deviation in the expected measurement/trajectory then retorts the theory. I don't have particular astronomical data handy, but I can imagine that the expected measurement/trajectory in the case of heliocentrism is distinct from that of a system in which the planets do not revolve about the sun (perhaps an understatement). I can see here how to apply error statistics to rule out alternative explanations for any anomalous recordings. This is much like the case of the eclipse of 1919.
In terms of how evolutionary theory is sometimes presented in schools (I should reiterate that I'm not attacking the field but rather the presentation of the theory by some), it is far more difficult to appraise the theory in terms of an anomaly. If I discover a fossil out of expected sequence, is this grounds for overthrowing evolutionary theory? It's not clear in advance what to do with an anomaly, how to treat it, what to do in terms of theory appraisal. Would we really overthrow all of evolutionary theory if we found an anomalous fossil? It's not entirely clear to me that we would. Feel free to help me frame this.
Imagine that stellar parallax measurements show that the planets revolve about Pluto. It's such an odd thing to posit in the first place, but it's so much clearer how to proceed in terms of theory appraisal. It's so much more severe of a test (and thus more clearly falsifiable).
by Malachite on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 10:46:59 PM PDT
An Albertosaurus with a human femur in its stomach would be more along the lines of evidence since we have a much better grasp on the more recent past so we know that case totally contradicts what we know now.
Another example of disproof would be, say, a mammal giving birth to a reptile, or vice-versa (without scientific intervention in an experiment, of course). That sort of massive change contradicts evolutionary theory, among other things.
by Northwatch on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 08:56:22 AM PDT
These methodological issues are clearly resolved in terms of error statistics with respect to Einstein's theory of gravitation and the Eclipse of 1919. In the absence of counterexamples, one knows how to appraise the theory. That's because of two key things: 1. the probability P that the theory is true given the evidence E is high. AND 2. the probability P that the theory is false given the counterevidence E' is high.
I guess a much simpler way of expressing this is to say that evolutionary theory (in the grand, expansive sense) might be valid or invalid in the absence of rabbits in the PreCambrian period.
by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 10:56:45 AM PDT
Probability P is true (according to your formula), is very high (1).
All this psuedo-science from you. But you must be smart. I associate you with Einstein.
by yet another liberal on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 11:16:24 AM PDT
Every current or past living thing we identify will be able to fit into the evolutionary nested hierarchy despite countless trivial examples of potential, imagined living things that would not. See my example of a griffon above.
The relative similarity of the DNA of every living thing will fit into the same nested hierarchy. See, for example, the relative similarities of the six species of ape (bonobo, chimpanzee, gibbon, gorilla, human, orangutan), and how the DNA similarity matches the relative Linnaean hierarchy, the fossil record, and biogeography.
Divergence of DNA, among related species, will show characteristics of having been caused by the known mechanisms of DNA copy errors.
Evidence will continue to be uncovered demonstrating the prior existence of intermediates between related lineages. Countless examples already exist, cf. Ambulocetus, Australopithecus, Archaeopteryx being some of the best known.
These are incredibly risky predictions, given the wide spectrum of possible evidences that we could theoretically discover which would falsify them.
Yet we keep not discovering any such evidence.
by eyelessgame on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 12:48:26 PM PDT
by Malachite on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 11:04:28 PM PDT
I think that there are several different factors at play in your perception of evolution.
I will initially sound backwards like I'm from some swamp land but evolutionary theory as sometimes/often presented is not scientific. And by scientific I don't mean that it doesn't appeal to observation and traditional scientific measures (viz. Thomas Kuhn) because it obviously does. Rather it is presented in a way that offers up no sense of which observations could be made which would represent a falsification of that theory.
First, there is a problem with the quality of science education in general. The problem here is shoddy education, not evolution. A lot of what passes as science education is just a cataloging of dramatic examples presented as received wisdom with little or no contextual backgrounding in why that example is important or where it came from. There is often too much attention given to the final work product (conclusions) of science rather than the processes (evidence and reasoning on the evidence) from which the product emerged. In this sense your criticism is valid, but it is not unique to evolution. It is merely evolution's bad luck to be the only science who's validity is discussed in public these days.
Another problem peculiar to evolution is that it has two distinct aspects that are often mistakenly conflated. This leads to a lot of confusion.
The first aspect is the simplest and most direct: evolution is the change of gene frequencies in populations over time. Call this the process of evolution and it is accessible to test and inspection in labs, the field and elsewhere in the here & now.
The second aspect is the history of life on Earth which is a record of how the process of evolution has worked over time. Reconstructing lineages and understanding the process of evolution are clearly related, but very different things.
The nature and importance of the distinction can be illustrated by considering the fact that I can not find the graves of my ancestors going back more than three generations; I can't unequivocally reconstruct my lineage. Nevertheless, it would be foolish of me to argue from this, as a creationist might, that I had no great great great grand parents simply because I can't find any of their bones. And then to go on and conclude that my existence is therefore somehow miraculous is even sillier. Rather, my knowledge of the process of reproduction leads me to rationally conclude that I did have 32 great3 grand parents even though neither hide nor hair of any them is to be found anywhere on earth today.
Theories are powerful things and supposing that they are weak is probably the single most egregious conceptual blunders creationists make. A well tested and firmly established theory is nearly impervious to discordant evidence. The absence of any evidence of the existence of my deep ancestors is no impediment to me asserting their existence as fact. If somebody cracked the crypt of one of my putative ancestors and found a long dead cat instead of human remains, I wouldn't change my mind. If a large study revealed that 95% of living humans can't locate their great3 grand parents' remains, I still wouldn't change my mind. Creationists are oblivious to this asymmetry in the interplay of data and understanding. They delight in talking about supposed gaps in the fossil record, or the occasional erroneous reconstruction of some lineage or other, but all of that means nearly nothing with respect to the soundness of the theory of evolution.
Even the simple notion of "fact" is a slippery thing and is absolutely dependent on theory. You may think it is a simple, unassailable and concrete fact that some object is 2.3 meters long, but what is a meter? At first it was a defined as a fraction of the circumference of Earth (1/10,000,000th of the meridian from the pole to the equator via Paris) and the definitive standard was later a platinum-iridium alloy bar of said length in the basements of standards bureaus. Nowadays a meter is defined as:
the length of the path travelled by light in vacuum during a time interval of 1/299,792,458 of a second.
And if you can't really test a theory then it's not very scientific (in the sense that most scientists and philosophers of science adopt). If only it were more carefully handled with regard to this in the science classroom
by MaskedMarauder on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:50:03 PM PDT
I think we can say it's a little more than an "Unprovable" theory
by knowthings on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 12:09:52 AM PDT
wide narrow
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