Daily Kos

View Story | 274 comments

  •  But not scientific... (2.41 / 12)

    I will initially sound backwards like I'm from some swamp land but evolutionary theory as sometimes/often presented is not scientific. And by scientific I don't mean that it doesn't appeal to observation and traditional scientific measures (viz. Thomas Kuhn) because it obviously does. Rather it is presented in a way that offers up no sense of which observations could be made which would represent a falsification of that theory. And if you can't really test a theory then it's not very scientific (in the sense that most scientists and philosophers of science adopt). If only it were more carefully handled with regard to this in the science classroom.

    Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

    by Malachite on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 11:08:04 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  General Theory of Relativity (4.00 / 4)

      What are ways to falsify this? Theories are rarely presented with how they can be falsified. When a theory is presented, it is presented in the positive, meaning it states what it is trying to prove. It is not stated with all the ways to disprove it which could be infinite.

      "He knows nothing, and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know. In this latter particular, I seem to have a slight advantage" - Socrates

      by benb on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 11:25:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Einstein's theories... (3.12 / 8)

        are notorious for offering risky predictions (and are thus extraordinary examples of scientific theory). In terms of relativity, one would expect that subatomic particles would increase in mass as they approach the speed of light. This is a risky prediction, because it is clear how to test it and it represents an unexpected observation per (then) conventional theory. We have observed in accelerators that indeed particle masses do increase. This corroborates the theory. So in this case we can imagine a test wherein a given observational result would have refuted the theory.

        Similarly, we have the eclipse experiment of 1919. If Einstein's theory of gravitation were bogus, star positions as recorded during the eclipse would be spatially equivalent to their positions recorded prior to the eclipse. But according to Einstein's theory, the mass of our sun would be sufficient to "bend" the light of distant stars as it passed the sun. This theory by its nature gives rise to such a risky prediction. It is therefore attributed as a scientific theory. The severity of the test one can devise for a theory defines its scientific nature.

        Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

        by Malachite on Wed Nov 02, 2005 at 11:49:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  not relevant to the discussion (none / 0)

          And besides, the fossil record is how one tests evolutionary theory.

          In God we trust. All others must pay cash.

          by yet another liberal on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:30:15 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  sheesh! (4.00 / 2)

            Fossils?!!  Don't you know that "fossils" are actually the remains of space creatures preserved for all time by the extraterrestrial "intelligent designer" (named Gawd, btw)? They prove evolutionary changes about as much as the Grand Canyon "proves" geologic changes.

            </snark>

            It's still upsetting for some people to know that the hippies were the ones telling the truth about Vietnam and trying to help America. - Anonymous

            by eunichorn on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 11:41:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Common Descent (none / 0)

          Common Descent

          I understand that Relativity has experiments that prove it. But they are evidence of the theory, not the theory itself. Just as evolution is a theory and need not articulate its evidence when described. However, it can be articulated when we have a debate. My side of the debate is presented here.

          "He knows nothing, and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know. In this latter particular, I seem to have a slight advantage" - Socrates

          by benb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:06:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Biochemistry (none / 0)

          The analysis of proteins (particularly enzymes), DNA and RNA have provided extremely powerful confirmation of the fosil record.

          Base (building block) sequences change from species to species in the same protein or gene sequences.  The change in a particular protein or nucleic acid is a measure of the divergence of those species.  The fosil record also shows the divergence of species.

          Comparing the evolutionary trees generated from fosil evidence with the tree results gathered from the biochemical analysis of existing species yields compatible results that confirm the correctness of the fosil evidence.

          The same results from two very different techniques. When both biochemistry and the fosil record provide the same results for the divergence of existing species, then the need for falsifiablity is satisfied as is the requirement for prediction.

          cheers

      •  Science education is weak in this area I think... (none / 0)

        Science education needs to do a better job explaining some things. As another poster points out, there is no such thing as a fact in science, that is, nothing you can be sure of. You can think of anything in science as a proposition and a probability that it's true or false.

        For example, is George Bush the president of the US? (Notwithstanding stolen elections, etc). The probability of this being true is very close to 100%, and the probability of it being false is close to 0%. But, it is never zero. There is a non-zero probability that any arbitrary crazy-ass thing you can think of is true.

        The problem, though, is that the above is no way to run a thinking mind in the real world from day to day. You have to make real binary decisions about whether to do something or not do something, and you can't be constantly confused by doubting reality, so most of these probabilities from an epistemological standpoint can just be rounded off to a 0 or a 1 so you can get some actual work done.

        Evolution is both a fact and a theory. From a fact perspective, evolution as an explanation for life has a probability so close to 100% that the remainder can just be discarded. From a theory perspective, evolution has tremendous predictive power.

        In any case, I think the epistemological underpinnings of science are something that most people don't understand, and the idea that nothing is certain in science can be frightening and confusing (and misleading if used for devious purposes as the IDers do).

    •  Actually quite scientific (4.00 / 16)

      You're right that there is a difference between scientific theories which try to explain historical phenomena (e.g. geology, evolution, and cosmology), and those which establish universally valid laws.  We can't run evolution in reverse the way we can, say, collide two subatomic particles.

      However, there are millions of ways that evolutionary theory could have been falsified.  JBS Haldane famously gave the example of "fossil rabbits in the Precambrian" (i.e. from before life began on land) -- they don't exist.  

      The molecular evidence of evolution could have failed to match the fossil evidence from paleontology, but it did not.  

      The radioactive dates assigned to fossils could have been inconsistent with evidence from geological sediments -- it wasn't.

      I could go on, but my point is that it's better to think about real ways that scientists have tested a theory than worry about the abstract concerns of philosophers -- they've spent centuries merely catching up with the practice of science.

      •  Well written... (3.33 / 6)

        I especially like your first paragraph as it concisely delineates the discussion in a germane way that is easy to grasp. I may just borrow that if I may.

        There's a problem with saying that there are a million ways to "falsify" evolutionary theory: which of these arises from a risky prediction? To what extent does the Haldane example facilitate corroboration of the theory? If we don't observe fossil rabbits in the PreCambrian period, to what extent do we conclude that we have learned something about the applicability of evolutionary theory? I can't say that we learn absolutely nothing from this case, but its anecdotal form attributes little in the way of meaningful evidence. The proper question to ask is what is the probability that the theory is still true or false in the presence or absence of the observation. Scientists would say that this is therefore not a severe test, and thus it does little to establish evolutionary theory as scientific.

        I think most scientists find the work of Popper, Kuhn, Lakatos, Scheffler, Salmon, Hacking, Mayo, etc.. as quite relevant to the practice of science. Kuhn's "Structure of Scientific Revolutions" didn't make the NYTimes 100 most influential books since WWII for nothing. But this is a digression.

        Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

        by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:25:46 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You want a risky prediction? (4.00 / 3)

          One of the components of evolutionary theory (biogeography) made the absolutely shocking prediction that marsupial fossils should be found in antarctica. This prediction was correct.
          •  How much of this is presented in schools? (none / 1)

            I vaguely remember studying evolution in high school, but don't remember any clear presentation or even a list of validated predictions of evolution. In New York State, biology comes after a course called "physical science," I believe, an amalgam of chemistry, physics and other bits and bobs meant to teach the scientific method. The problem is, in the mind of a student this sequence presents lab experiment as the epitome of the scientific method, leaving "backward-looking" sciences looking like they're less, well, scientific. Some good pedagogical ideas here, I think.
          •  And dont forget plate tectonics (none / 0)

            A theory. I think Wegener? (1880-1930).
            What used to be a theory is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt today.

            Can I get a mint? I have Scalitosis

            by Gleeb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 01:01:47 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Seems to me that we watch evolution happening (4.00 / 2)

      every day of our lives, however slowly. That's about as good a test of it as one can imagine. We don't reproduce granite in a lab in order to prove how it was formed, we merely observe the ongoing process.

      -6.88/-5.64 * We won! We won!.... Now back on your heads.

      by John West on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:17:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  And that is microevolution... (3.00 / 4)

        to which I agree affords far more opportunity for the development of scientific theory. Because the scope of any such theory is significantly smaller, severe testing is easier to imagine and accomplish. A key thought along these lines is to devise competing theories (as biologists have adequately composed).

        Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

        by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:30:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  there's massive evidence of macroevolution (none / 1)

          •  Malachite (4.00 / 10)

            I believe I may have been round and round with you before under a differetn s/n or maybe this one. Simply put, evolutionary biology makes predictiosn that have to be true for the explanation to remain valid, and these are predictions which DID NOT have to turn out correct.

            IDC makes no such predictions. IDC is consistent with a Young Universe or an old one. It is consistent with Special Creation of Kinds or Baramins, and it is consistent with theistic evolution. It is consistent with common descent and it is consistent separate design. It works with extra-universal aliens or armies of supernatural critters. It works for a universe created lat wednesday, it works for one created 14 BYA.

            It is consistent with anything, because a vague, omnipotent designer can do anything. There is no evidence which can falsify that claim. And that's why IDC as it is currently presented is not science and never will be.

            Read UTI, your free thought forum

            by DarkSyde on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:00:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  interesting exchange (4.00 / 4)

              The plaintiffs' expert witness, Dr. Ken Miller (a biologist with a cv longer than Libby's rap sheet), testifies at length about the definition of science, of a theory, and other things. Reading the transcript is equivalent to a semester's Intro to Science course, I'm sure.
            •  Reminds me of my 9th grade English teacher (none / 0)

              who said "If you attach importance to never being able to be proven wrong on anything, just insert  the word "mabie" somewhere each time you utter a sentence.

              The time has come to start thinking less about Motherland and Fatherland and more about our Brotherlands and Sisterlands.

              by Crowdog on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 06:43:55 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  What pisses me off about 'ID' (4.00 / 4)


               What pisses me off about the ID nutjobs is that, if they weren't in it for the religion, then they could simply say, in church, either 1 evolution is b.s. and God created the world and everything in it in 6 days (fine:  that's your religious belief and you're welcome to stick to it); or 2 something like, "Hey, re:  evolution, you can teach you're children, at home and in church, that God put the whole thing into motion, or not, as you wish."

               Either of those things is fine and, God Bless America, I'm all for that.  But not in a SCIENCE class.

               What is so difficult to understand about that?  Of course, we know the answer:  there's nothing difficult to understand about separating church and state (at least not on the level we're talking about re:  this ID piffle and evolution and teaching the origin of the species in science classes).  No, the concept's pretty easy to grasp -- what the IDers want to do is do away with that separation and tear down that wall between church and state and, in this case, do it in what they think is a clever, sneaky, back door manner.  

               BenGoshi
              _________________

              "We in the gloam, old buddy," he said, "We definitely right in the middle of it." -Larry Brown

              by BenGoshi on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 07:06:33 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I'm not a proponent... (none / 0)

              by any means of ID ideology. It's entirely outside the realm and scope of science because it isn't based on naturalistic explanations. I agree with you. It certainly doesn't belong in the science classroom.

              The question that arises here is to what extent does evolutionary theory actually entail the outcomes or predictions that have been noted. To what extent would we overthrow the theory if an ostensible counter-observation were made? What sort of competing theory is available that is entirely naturalistic that doesn't somehow fall into an evolutionary rubric? I can't imagine a priori what that would resemble.

              And notice interestingly that the actual observations made with respect this theory (or any theory for that matter) do not bear witness to its scientific status. A theory can in fact turn out to be grossly false in the minds of scientists but still be wonderfully scientific. It's all about the severity of the testing possible on the basis of that theory. We can attribute this particular quality without stepping foot into the field. Again it doesn't have to turn out to be true to be scientific. That sounds nutty at first but it resonates with scientific inference.

              Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

              by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 08:02:46 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Competing theory? (4.00 / 2)

                Lamarck had a perfectly naturalistic competing theory to Darwin's.  You could claim that it was evolutionary as well, but that seems to water down the meaning of "evolutionary" into something that means just change.

                In fact, every naturalistic theory is concerned with change, in particular, describing the mechanisms of change.  Some aspects of a natural event are regarded as stable or permanent with regard to that event.  It is through observation of the actions and relationships of those stable elements or inferences to their relationships and actions that one arrives at a particular description of that event.  Believing that macroevolution lies outside the realms of testable science confuses the relative permanence of some aspects of biology, regarded as permanent for certain purposes, with an absolute metaphysical permanence.  

                Darwinian macroevolution is indeed a scientific theory.  It makes different predictions than other (Lamarkian) evolutionary theories.  What I think is funny is that folks think ID is just creationism in "new" clothes or some sort of "new" idea.  William Paley elucidated the theory well before Darwin, in fact, Paley was quite revered by Darwin.  (Darwin intentionally uses the same form of argument (argument by analogy) as Paley.  And ID was defeated even before Paley published his idea by David Hume, who never met a proof for the existence of God he couldn't completely destroy.

                While the voices of dissent are many, reason has but one voice. -lizardbox

                by Nellebracht on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:47:30 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

          •  Stole my reply (none / 0)

            I repeated this link above, sorry about that.

            "He knows nothing, and thinks that he knows. I neither know nor think that I know. In this latter particular, I seem to have a slight advantage" - Socrates

            by benb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:11:40 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  The term (4.00 / 2)

          "microevolution" is a creationist frame, not a useful term in evolutionary biology.  Evolution is the change in allele frequencies in a population over time.  Over enough time these changes may accrue such that we want to call something a different species, or it may be that some members of a population possess genetic characteristics insufficient for us to call it a different species.

          Either way it's evolution.  The term gets used by creationists so that they're able to admit the evolution for which there is good lab evidence without having to buy the whole origins-of-species sort of evolution.

          I refuse to use the word; I don't think it's useful, and it just feeds into their frame.

          Je suis inondé de déesses

          by Marc in KS on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 06:11:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I'll grant you that... (none / 0)

            but I need some term which quickly encapsulates the notion of theory scope (or better put, inference scope). The scope of the kind of evolution that I take you to mean by the phrase "for which there is good lab evidence" is significantly smaller than its cousin. And it's not a question of actual evidence so much as it is scope and testability. I wish I could make that point somehow without coming off as an ID'er.

            Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

            by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 08:38:17 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  why do you need such a term? (none / 0)

              And what would you say of the example of a horse & a donkey can mate, but produce a mule?

              Is that micro?  Or is that macro?

              In God we trust. All others must pay cash.

              by yet another liberal on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 10:09:42 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I think you just did. (none / 0)

              I'm not sure how you'd want to talk about it differently.  You could talk about small evolutionary steps, or genetic mutation, or something.

              I would think that in discussions wherein you want to talk about a smaller-scope processes, you could just say "I'm talking about small-scope inference, here," and then just go on and talk and use the word "evolution."

              This is not different from the day I saw the phrase "Tax Relief" in a NY Times headline.  I thought, shit, we're done, now...

              So I bridle when I hear people who know evolution use terms coined (or co-opted) by creationists.  Then we're arguing on their terms, and those arguments we cannot win effectively.

              Je suis inondé de déesses

              by Marc in KS on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 10:31:49 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

      •  Two Words: (4.00 / 3)

        Antibiotic Resistance
        •  Horizontal Gene Transfer... (4.00 / 6)

          You are correct.  Antibiotic Resistance is an excellent example of why there is strong evidence of mutation and selection.  But Antibiotic Resistance is also an example of the complexity of genetic mechanisms not known and understood by Darwin, who knew nothing of DNA and microbial evolution.  Antibiotic resistance can spread from bacteria to bacteria on plasmids.  The genes for resistance need to evolve first, of course.

          So the Intelligent Design emphasis on discrediting Darwin in their discussion demonstrates that they are out of touch with the vital, changing aspects of real science and its treatment evolution as a real theory.  Evolutionary scientists are always discussing things like horizontal gene transfer and gene convergence, and models for molecular clocks, and their limitations.  They are pointing out the relevance of these topics for modern life, like antibiotic resistance in HIV and rapid evolution of influenza virus through recombination of the 9 smaller RNA genomes within the virus.  

          By focussing on creation vs. Darwin, they miss the point of 150 years of additional research and a HUGE explosion of genomics information.  Those ID people saying molecules are too too fabulous to have happened by accident should wander around in the genomic databases a bit and see the massive code reuse.  

          Computer folks out there know that you don't just redesign code from scratch every time you want to write a program.  You rework old portions- sometimes using something slower and glitchier, in order to get a job done quickly.  Molecular evolution is full of similar code reuse, where code replacement would work more efficiently. It is insulting and bogus and reflects limited understanding of new information and predictions.  Code reuse is a prediction of natural selection models, not intelligent design.  

          You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad. Aldous Huxley

          by murrayewv on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 02:01:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  you sound backwards because you're wrong (none / 0)

      " If only it were more carefully handled with regard to this in the science classroom."

      Even if this were true, it would have no bearing on whether the theory of evolution is scientific -- the falsifiability of the theory of evolution is well established in both the scientific and philosophy of science literature.

      •  If the people teaching science in the (none / 0)

        lower grades had some scientific knowledge, it would help.

        A lot.

        •  I agree (none / 0)

          There is plenty of money going into organizations to "educate" about ID, so why isn't there an org dedicated to teaching the teachers of young children the facts about evolution?

          "Treat them with humanity. Let them have no reason to complain of our copying the brutal example of the British army."

          by otto on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:30:05 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  There (4.00 / 2)

            are several. One of interest here is NCSE which operates on a shoestring budget. They're a primary resource for both educating educators and the Fort of Knowledge that has successfully torpedoed IDC in court for a decade.

            Read UTI, your free thought forum

            by DarkSyde on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 05:39:39 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Also The National Academies (none / 0)

              The National Academies has a website devoted to evolution teaching materials and how to counteract common arguments against evolution.  This was in the news last week when they revoced Kansas's right to use those materials in their highly controversal biology standards.
            •  Eugenie Scott (none / 0)

              We just had Eugenie Scott from NCSE here (University of Idaho) giving a talk a coupla weeks ago.  Great talk, and good conversation over lunch.  This was particularly appropriate since one of the "Expert Witnesses" for the ID crew in the Dover trial, Scott Minnich, has an office directly below my lab here.  He studies the bacterial flagellum, and cites design principles as inspiring his research.

              Dr. Scott had some interesting points from the trial including...

              The prepublication manuscript of Of Pandas And People (OPAP) was subpoenaed, and all the references in the published book to Intelligent Design were written as Creationism in he manuscript.  Quack quack.

              A rhetorical trick: in the second edition of OPAP, all references to "evolution" were replaced with "Darwinism" in order to push their frame of a cult of Darwin.

              Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. -Albert Einstein

              by Primordial Ooze on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:52:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  You may want to close your mineralogy book (4.00 / 2)

      And open up your paleontology book.  The stratigraphic record, butressed by structural and isotope geology, provides some pretty profound support to the concept of evolution via the theory of natural selection.
    •  Man, oh man. (4.00 / 2)

      This is totally wrong.  Evolution, i.e. the set of ideas that are conventionally implied by the term in common speech, is an easily falsifiable theory.  Cores have been dug all over the planet.  The first one that turns up a pre-Cambrian rabbit will kill evolution.  Meanwhile, consider it well-tested.
    •  Well, mister magic ... (4.00 / 2)

      Evolution could be placed into serious question by a replicable miracle. If under defined laboratory conditions, in a contained environment without living precursors, God can be invoked to spontaneously generate a complex life-from, repeatedly, in various labs, then — while it wouldn't disprove evolution in other instances — it would well indicate that evolution is not the only story.

      Presuming for the sake of argument "God," either God can do this, or not. If God can do this — which is the implicit claim of the Creationist crowd — then you have to make some theological excuse for why he doesn't. Perhaps our laboratories don't know how to invoke Him effectively? If that's the case, then we should work on how to pray better. But who can teach that? Any Creationist leader who can't even pray effectively enough to get God to generate new examples of complex life from nothing is not the one to teach our scientists how to pray, obviously.

      Or maybe we have to allow the excuse of "God could do it but He doesn't want to." So you posit a God who for some reason wants us to believe He can do it, but doesn't want that badly enough to actually cooperate in a laboratory to prove His powers. That's like the child who wants us to believe he's gifted but won't work in school.

      There's an historically-recent notion that God doesn't want to be provable by science, since somehow that would undermine the value of faith. That notion only came into vogue with the failure of science to prove God. All of those at the cusp of modern science, from Newton to Descartes and beyond, were firm in their belief that science would prove the existence and nature of God. Faith in proof and faith in God were the same thing.

      Well, faith in proof has proved of lasting power; faith in God we can at best make excuses for, as having some psychological value despite the proofs of science demonstrating that the greater part of most religions, taken at all literally, are flat-out false. We can still have religion along with science, but only if religion yeilds to proof. We must return to the faith, at the root of science, that reality, when openly explored and tested, will not deceive us.

      To not believe in reality, that is, to believe that reality lies, while the fantasies written up in certain old books — internally contradictory as they are — somehow do not, that's batshit fucking insane at this point in history. We've got a major mental health crisis on our hands. Something like half the population of the most nuclear-armed nation is batshit fucking insane, and even thinks their God might be happier if they just destroyed our planet.

      And that's why it's so important they not be enabled to use our schools to recruit youth into their cultish madness.

    •  Falsifiable? (none / 1)

      Wouldn't heliocentricity be "not scientific" the same way?  Is heliocentricity falsifiable?  If so, how?

      In any case it's absolutely not true that evolution is unfalsifiable.  Every fossil found, every new species identified, every strand of DNA sequenced, and every mutation observed is a test of evolutionary theory.  It stands up to every test.

      How to falsify it?  Find a fossil of a griffon (i.e. a bird/mammal intermediate).

      Bang, right there you've falsified a major section of the accepted evolutionary history of vertebrates, because mammals and birds are expected to have come from different branches of early reptiles, and there should be no ancestor which shares characteristics of both.

      •  I think (none / 0)

        you may be moving toward a discussion of Kuhnian paradigms. Heliocentricity has such a narrow scope of inference that it is difficult to treat it as analogous. Evolutionary theory is more expansive. Perhaps questions regarding gravitation would be more applicable as subsuming heliocentricity, as they therefore generalize and expand. The issue here is one of ampliative inference.

        Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

        by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 09:49:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Inference? (none / 0)

          What does the narrowness of the scope of inference have to do with it?  Is, or is not, heliocentrism "scientific" in the way you claim evolution is not -- i.e. does it or does it not suffer from the same lack of falsifiability?

          Heliocentrism was inferred from the phases of Venus, and much later from the aberration of light and, still later, from stellar parallax. Evolution, and common descent, can be inferred independently from multiple sources: biogeography, the fossil record, observed adaptation, the mechanisms of inheritance, the Linnaean nested hierarchy, and the genetic nested hierarchy.

          In any case, you didn't claim width of inference, you claimed lack of falsifiability.  I have challenged that in a way that I think is valid. I invite you to defend or retract your claim of lack of falsifiability, and then, if you like, move on to the scope of inference.

          •  Ok... (none / 0)

            Please give me a chance. To treat your example fairly, I have to spend time exploring the background and then do some mind experiments. It's not always quick and simple to frame an example properly into the discussion. So to be fair I may need your help here.

            From what I'm reading, there are particular stellar parallax measurements which are expected in a heliocentric solar system. A suite of such measurements defines the orbital motion of the planets over time. Heliocentrism then predicts that such measurements with respect to Mars will show that Mars rotates about the Sun. This is a risky prediction because any statistically significant deviation in the expected measurement/trajectory then retorts the theory. I don't have particular astronomical data handy, but I can imagine that the expected measurement/trajectory in the case of heliocentrism is distinct from that of a system in which the planets do not revolve about the sun (perhaps an understatement). I can see here how to apply error statistics to rule out alternative explanations for any anomalous recordings. This is much like the case of the eclipse of 1919.

            In terms of how evolutionary theory is sometimes presented in schools (I should reiterate that I'm not attacking the field but rather the presentation of the theory by some), it is far more difficult to appraise the theory in terms of an anomaly. If I discover a fossil out of expected sequence, is this grounds for overthrowing evolutionary theory? It's not clear in advance what to do with an anomaly, how to treat it, what to do in terms of theory appraisal. Would we really overthrow all of evolutionary theory if we found an anomalous fossil? It's not entirely clear to me that we would. Feel free to help me frame this.

            Imagine that stellar parallax measurements show that the planets revolve about Pluto. It's such an odd thing to posit in the first place, but it's so much clearer how to proceed in terms of theory appraisal. It's so much more severe of a test (and thus more clearly falsifiable).

            Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

            by Malachite on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 10:46:59 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  There are several ways to falsify evolution (none / 1)

      Other people have commented on fossil rabbits in the Precambrian although that one isn't clear: it's entirely possible to believe an animal that looked like a rabbit might have evolved from a now-extinct lineage that had most of its fossil record destroyed--highly unlikely, mind you, but theoretically possible.

      An Albertosaurus with a human femur in its stomach would be more along the lines of evidence since we have a much better grasp on the more recent past so we know that case totally contradicts what we know now.

      Another example of disproof would be, say, a mammal giving birth to a reptile, or vice-versa (without scientific intervention in an experiment, of course).  That sort of massive change contradicts evolutionary theory, among other things.

      •  The question (none / 0)

        that arises here is what is the probability that the theory/hypothesis is true given the absence of such evidence? What kind of test does it therefore represent? And what ramifications are there with respect to theory appraisal?

        These methodological issues are clearly resolved in terms of error statistics with respect to Einstein's theory of gravitation and the Eclipse of 1919. In the absence of counterexamples, one knows how to appraise the theory. That's because of two key things: 1. the probability P that the theory is true given the evidence E is high. AND 2. the probability P that the theory is false given the counterevidence E' is high.

        I guess a much simpler way of expressing this is to say that evolutionary theory (in the grand, expansive sense) might be valid or invalid in the absence of rabbits in the PreCambrian period.

        Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

        by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 10:56:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  OK (none / 0)

          E, very high (1)
          NOT E, very low (0)

          Probability P is true (according to your formula), is very high (1).

          All this psuedo-science from you.  But you must be smart.  I associate you with Einstein.

          In God we trust. All others must pay cash.

          by yet another liberal on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 11:16:24 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  okay, let's talk risky propositions (none / 0)

          Want some riskier propositions? Here.

          Every current or past living thing we identify will be able to fit into the evolutionary nested hierarchy despite countless trivial examples of potential, imagined living things that would not. See my example of a griffon above.

          The relative similarity of the DNA of every living thing will fit into the same nested hierarchy. See, for example, the relative similarities of the six species of ape (bonobo, chimpanzee, gibbon, gorilla, human, orangutan), and how the DNA similarity matches the relative Linnaean hierarchy, the fossil record, and biogeography.

          Divergence of DNA, among related species, will show characteristics of having been caused by the known mechanisms of DNA copy errors.

          Evidence will continue to be uncovered demonstrating the prior existence of intermediates between related lineages. Countless examples already exist, cf. Ambulocetus, Australopithecus, Archaeopteryx being some of the best known.

          These are incredibly risky predictions, given the wide spectrum of possible evidences that we could theoretically discover which would falsify them.

          Yet we keep not discovering any such evidence.

          •  This is well formed... (none / 0)

            I wish this is how the subject matter were largely handled in schools. My experience has been that is treated and presented less effectively. This was precisely my original objection. I am curious to know to what extent you think that we can resolve such issues.

            Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

            by Malachite on Fri Nov 04, 2005 at 11:04:28 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  But it is scientific... (none / 0)

      I think that there are several different factors at play in your perception of evolution.

      I will initially sound backwards like I'm from some swamp land but evolutionary theory as sometimes/often presented is not scientific. And by scientific I don't mean that it doesn't appeal to observation and traditional scientific measures (viz. Thomas Kuhn) because it obviously does. Rather it is presented in a way that offers up no sense of which observations could be made which would represent a falsification of that theory.
      Sometimes it helps to separate them.

      First, there is a problem with the quality of science education in general. The problem here is shoddy education, not evolution. A lot of what passes as science education is just a cataloging of dramatic examples presented as received wisdom with little or no contextual backgrounding in why that example is important or where it came from. There is often too much attention given to the final work product (conclusions) of science rather than the processes (evidence and reasoning on the evidence) from which the product emerged. In this sense your criticism is valid, but it is not unique to evolution. It is merely evolution's bad luck to be the only science who's validity is discussed in public these days.

      Another problem peculiar to evolution is that it has two distinct aspects that are often mistakenly conflated. This leads to a lot of confusion.

      The first aspect is the simplest and most direct: evolution is the change of gene frequencies in populations over time. Call this the process of evolution and it is accessible to test and inspection in labs, the field and elsewhere in the here & now.

      The second aspect is the history of life on Earth which is a record of how the process of evolution has worked over time. Reconstructing lineages and understanding the process of evolution are clearly related, but very different things.

      The nature and importance of the distinction can be illustrated by considering the fact that I can not find the graves of my ancestors going back more than three generations; I can't unequivocally reconstruct my lineage. Nevertheless, it would be foolish of me to argue from this, as a creationist might, that I had no great great great grand parents simply because I can't find any of their bones. And then to go on and conclude that my existence is therefore somehow miraculous is even sillier. Rather, my knowledge of the process of reproduction leads me to rationally conclude that I did have 32 great3 grand parents even though neither hide nor hair of any them is to be found anywhere on earth today.

      Theories are powerful things and supposing that they are weak is probably the single most egregious conceptual blunders creationists make. A well tested and firmly established theory is nearly impervious to discordant evidence. The absence of any evidence of the existence of my deep ancestors is no impediment to me asserting their existence as fact. If somebody cracked the crypt of one of my putative ancestors and found a long dead cat instead of human remains, I wouldn't change my mind. If a large study revealed that 95% of living humans can't locate their great3 grand parents' remains, I still wouldn't change my mind. Creationists are oblivious to this asymmetry in the interplay of data and understanding. They delight in talking about supposed gaps in the fossil record, or the occasional erroneous reconstruction of some lineage or other, but all of that means nearly nothing with respect to the soundness of the theory of evolution.

      Even the simple notion of "fact" is a slippery thing and is absolutely dependent on theory. You may think it is a simple, unassailable and concrete fact that some object is 2.3 meters long, but what is a meter? At first it was a defined as a fraction of the circumference of Earth (1/10,000,000th of the meridian from the pole to the equator via Paris) and the definitive standard was later a platinum-iridium alloy bar of said length in the basements of standards bureaus. Nowadays a meter is defined as:

      the length of the path travelled by light in vacuum during a time interval of 1/299,792,458 of a second.
      To know why you need a really good clock to measure how tall you are requires more than a little theory to understand and accept. The fact/theory dichotomy is largely overrated. Theories, ones held with high confidence, trump facts. It could be fairly said that without theories there can be no facts.

      And if you can't really test a theory then it's not very scientific (in the sense that most scientists and philosophers of science adopt). If only it were more carefully handled with regard to this in the science classroom
      Actually, nobody really knows how science works. It does, but nobody knows why. Yes, scientists will often refer to philosophers and philosophies of science, but few have read deeply into them and fewer still have thought deeply on what they read there and of those that have not many agree with what they read. In no observable instance have we been seen to follow the modes of behavior that philosophers have prescribed for us. So I doubt that science education can be improved by showing a correspondence between the science of evolution and how philosophers have declared science ought to be done. Science is more of a culture than it is a process. It can only really be learned by doing it. For example, read "Changing Order : Replication and Induction in Scientific Practice" by HM Collins, a sociologist of science.

    •  July 29, 1945, Los Alamos New Mexico, USA (none / 0)

      considering that fat boy actually exploded, and welcomed in the new nuclear age

      I think we can say it's a little more than an "Unprovable" theory

View Story | 274 comments