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  •  Actually quite scientific (4.00 / 16)

    You're right that there is a difference between scientific theories which try to explain historical phenomena (e.g. geology, evolution, and cosmology), and those which establish universally valid laws.  We can't run evolution in reverse the way we can, say, collide two subatomic particles.

    However, there are millions of ways that evolutionary theory could have been falsified.  JBS Haldane famously gave the example of "fossil rabbits in the Precambrian" (i.e. from before life began on land) -- they don't exist.  

    The molecular evidence of evolution could have failed to match the fossil evidence from paleontology, but it did not.  

    The radioactive dates assigned to fossils could have been inconsistent with evidence from geological sediments -- it wasn't.

    I could go on, but my point is that it's better to think about real ways that scientists have tested a theory than worry about the abstract concerns of philosophers -- they've spent centuries merely catching up with the practice of science.

    •  Well written... (3.33 / 6)

      I especially like your first paragraph as it concisely delineates the discussion in a germane way that is easy to grasp. I may just borrow that if I may.

      There's a problem with saying that there are a million ways to "falsify" evolutionary theory: which of these arises from a risky prediction? To what extent does the Haldane example facilitate corroboration of the theory? If we don't observe fossil rabbits in the PreCambrian period, to what extent do we conclude that we have learned something about the applicability of evolutionary theory? I can't say that we learn absolutely nothing from this case, but its anecdotal form attributes little in the way of meaningful evidence. The proper question to ask is what is the probability that the theory is still true or false in the presence or absence of the observation. Scientists would say that this is therefore not a severe test, and thus it does little to establish evolutionary theory as scientific.

      I think most scientists find the work of Popper, Kuhn, Lakatos, Scheffler, Salmon, Hacking, Mayo, etc.. as quite relevant to the practice of science. Kuhn's "Structure of Scientific Revolutions" didn't make the NYTimes 100 most influential books since WWII for nothing. But this is a digression.

      Time lost is always a disadvantage that is bound in some way to weaken him who loses it. -Clausewitz

      by Malachite on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 12:25:46 AM PDT

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      •  You want a risky prediction? (4.00 / 3)

        One of the components of evolutionary theory (biogeography) made the absolutely shocking prediction that marsupial fossils should be found in antarctica. This prediction was correct.
        •  How much of this is presented in schools? (none / 1)

          I vaguely remember studying evolution in high school, but don't remember any clear presentation or even a list of validated predictions of evolution. In New York State, biology comes after a course called "physical science," I believe, an amalgam of chemistry, physics and other bits and bobs meant to teach the scientific method. The problem is, in the mind of a student this sequence presents lab experiment as the epitome of the scientific method, leaving "backward-looking" sciences looking like they're less, well, scientific. Some good pedagogical ideas here, I think.
        •  And dont forget plate tectonics (none / 0)

          A theory. I think Wegener? (1880-1930).
          What used to be a theory is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt today.

          Can I get a mint? I have Scalitosis

          by Gleeb on Thu Nov 03, 2005 at 01:01:47 PM PDT

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