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View Diary: FOLLOWING THE POLLS: The Monday Edition **UPDATED** (146 comments)

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  •  Upstate NY (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    blueyedace2, Steve Singiser

    Those numbers look a little too rosy for upstate.  Four Republican incumbants down 7-14% in four Republican districts?  I don't believe it.  Sorry, but those numbers have to be wrong.

    -5.88, -4.82 "He deprives the leaders of the earth of their reason; he sends them wandering through a trackless waste." Job 12:24

    by slothlax on Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 07:16:53 PM PST

    •  Not necessarily... (7+ / 0-)

      They seem a bit high to me as well.  However, one has to look at the environment in New York this year.  The districts aren't as Republican as they used to be--remember, Hillary lost upstate by only a 50-47 margin in 2000, when most Dems are happy to beat 40 percent.  Both Spitzer and Clinton are absolutely romping in their campaigns, with polls showing them up against cash-short opponents Faso and Spencer by 2 to 1 margins, or sometimes more.  The AG's race for Cuomo and Pirro is no closer; the only close race is for Comptroller with Hevesi's ethical problems that just came out, and he may pull it out anyway.  Clinton and Spitzer may win upstate, for the first time for a Democrat since--boy, I don't know.  Moynihan's 1988 reelection, perhaps?

      And that's not counting national factors--the war, the economy, disillusionment with Bush, concerns about the radical right's influence--that all resonate up here.  In other words, the upstate NY Republican voter has to deal with all that, and statewide races where their candidate couldn't win (again, Hevesi excepted) if their opponent died tomorrow.  That's gotta be really demotivational and could induce more than a few to stay home.  Overall, the result is an election that could drag many of these candidates in despite the Republican tilt of some areas.

      Finally, the last refuge of Karl Rove, the pan-dimensional vortex inducing Diebold voting machine and gelato maker, isn't used here.  We're still on old lever machines for one last time, and while they can be tampered with, it's not nearly as easy.  New machines will be purchased at the county level for 2007 local elections.

      •  I like the lever machines (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        blueyedace2, Steve Singiser

        Too bad they have to go.  I would prefer a paper ballot that I personally mark with a pen, but I guess that's too simple and easy.

        I know all about the local dynamics.  I'm from upstate and have lived my whole life in a county that elects republicans to virtually every office outside the city.  Walsh is my rep and his name is universally known.  I can see the race being close, but Maffei up by 10?  No way, and the Maffei people are not sold either.

        I have a feeling the coattails may not be too long because the upticket races are so not interesting.  I didn't watch much TV when I was home on leave this month, but I didn't see any Hillary or Spitzer ads.  I did see some congressional races, though.  But I don't know that people on either side will be motivated to vote for the gov and senate races.  The only competative races are the more local ones (except comptroller, yawn) and the whole incumbant, sure he's an asshole but he's my asshole thing is hard to overcome.  We might squeak out a race or two in upstate, but I don't see a sweep, certainly not by double digits in multiple races.

        -5.88, -4.82 "He deprives the leaders of the earth of their reason; he sends them wandering through a trackless waste." Job 12:24

        by slothlax on Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 08:03:21 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  True, to a degree... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          m3, Ckntfld, Steve Singiser, slothlax

          Sounds like you're from up near Syracuse, and I don't think he's up by 10 either.  

          However, while the statewide races are snoozers, for Dems they're at least on the winning side.  Most polls recently (nationally; haven't seen any at the state level) have shown Dems to be more motivated to vote this year than Republicans, and that's in a more even national environment.  Bush's lone remaining constituency--the religious conservative--isn't nearly as strong here as in other parts of the country, and a lot of these rural residents know folks who are serving in Iraq--or who didn't come back.  Our motivation to vote (besides the whole civic-duty and it-improves-your-sex-life thing) is that we'll mostly vote for winners.  For someone who lived in Houston before and saw my candidates lose year after year, it's a nice feeling to vote for a successful candidate.  How interested is a Republican going to be in keeping Spitzer's margin over Faso to under a million?

          I don't think it's likely we'll take them all.  But a couple seems quite possible, and if everything breaks right, you never know.  Remember, no one thought James Hanley would win either in 1964.

          And, you may get to vote on paper anyway, albeit through optical scanner sheets...

          •  I don't remember (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Steve Singiser

            My parents were freshmen in college or something, but I have heard about his win.  And I also heard he was basically senile when he left office.

            I think we have a solid chance at all the seats purported to be in play.  That said, I wouldn't be surprised either if none of them turned up blue.

            -5.88, -4.82 "He deprives the leaders of the earth of their reason; he sends them wandering through a trackless waste." Job 12:24

            by slothlax on Mon Oct 30, 2006 at 10:32:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

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