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View Diary: NC-Sen, Pres, Gov: Our latest polling (148 comments)

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  •  still having trouble... (8+ / 0-)

    believing that McCain is doing BETTER than Obama in the Raleigh/Durham area. Considering the dense African American population in Durham and the "blue-ing" of the Research Triangle area, it's hard to swallow that Obama is behind in the center of the state.

    •  do not want (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Geotpf, costello7

      Okay, it's not just "wishful thinking" that has me leaning toward PPP.  They called every race correctly in the NC primary - down to the level of state Auditor, Commissioners, etc.  SUSA got the margins wrong (badly) even when they got the races right, and they got more than one race wrong in the NC primary.  They are great pollsters, but their "likely voter" model for NC is screwy.

      Both PPP and Civitas have excellent internals - both in terms of deets and in terms of careful modeling to reflect state voting dynamics.  Both show Obama with significant leads in the Triangle.

      Part of the problem w/ this poll and the SUSA poll may be in what is getting grouped into the "Raleigh/Durham" region.  Are they calling Siler City and calling that "Raleigh"?  Are they calling Chapel Hill/Carrboro as part of their R/D region?  Are they only calling Raleigh (which is much more mixed, and leans more R), and neglecting Durham (which is overwhelmingly D)?

      I realize that these kind of micro-geographic details aren't going to read to someone who doesn't know the state, but this is a very patchwork, district-by-district voting population we're discussing.  I would definitely look to the three polls done by in-state pollsters:  Civitas, PPP, and Yang.  These three are consistent with pre-convention polling, and consistent amongst themselves.  They all show a close race that will be won or lost on turnout.  In other words, the NC race that those of us here know is happening.

      McCain/Palin 08: More of the Same, But Worse

      by thisniss on Thu Sep 11, 2008 at 03:09:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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