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View Diary: AR-Pres: Not this year (177 comments)

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  •  re (4+ / 0-)

    So another state votes against their wallet....

    "tloH evetS" - Steve Holt

    by cookiesandmilk on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:52:45 PM PDT

    •  To Be Fair.... (6+ / 0-)

      ....Obama's campaign has made absolutely no effort to ask for their vote.  Considering this is Clinton turf, it probably feels like a slap in the face to some that the Obama campaign seems to be dumping resources into every market EXCEPT the second most Democratic state in the country.

      •  Uh, to be fair (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, ksquire, lauramp

        With polls like this, you can't devote a lot of resources to the state. There have been a few campaign probes in to AR, but, obviously, it's not really fruitful territory this year.

      •  Has McCain asked for their vote? n/t (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lauramp

        "Wolf, these post-debate instapolls just prove that America is in the tank for Obama."

        by skipppppp on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:04:09 PM PDT

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        •  He's Ahead. He Doesn't Have To. (0+ / 0-)
          •  Makes no sense (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            I'm sorry but that doesn't.  Your contention was that people in AR are mad because Obama has ignored them.  Yet McCain has too, but they're apparently not mad at McCain.

            Also, there are a lot of states that Obama isn't spending money in.  Arkansas isn't alone.

            "Wolf, these post-debate instapolls just prove that America is in the tank for Obama."

            by skipppppp on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:17:30 PM PDT

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            •  But Any Among Them..... (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              carolita

              ....that Bush won by only single digits?  And that have as lopsided of partisan advantage as Arkansas?  My contention is that if Obama is coming this close in Georgia by contesting it, he could winning in the much less expensive market of Arkansas if he had contested it.

            •  McCain has at least visited the state a few times (0+ / 0-)

              I don't recall Obama stopping by once. This is usually how it goes in Arkansas, though the GOP candidate normally has an even larger presence. The sad thing is that I believe the state GOP party is down right now.

              The press in Arkansas is predominately Republican and I think that severely hinders the Democrat's chances of winning the Presidency. What I believe most hurt Obama in Arkansas, however, was him being Clinton's rival for the nomination. The state seemed gungho on the idea that everything Clinton was great and everything Obama was evil, because people here are very simplistic in their good/bad guy mentalities. The Clinton's did too little, too late to make a real difference, though it probably wouldn't have mattered anyway, because the damage was done during the primaries.

              The results of this poll were expected for me. When Chuck Todd mentioned that we might see a closer race in Arkansas, I was hoping that he knew something I did not, because I just didn't see it happening. For the record, I'm not blaming anyone, but just saying that I don't find this poll surprising, considering the lack of attention given to Arkansas by Obama. It was probably the right move, but Democrats shouldn't expect much from Arkansas without giving it attention, because the Democratic candidate will always start with one foot in a hole, thanks to the Republican leanings of the state media, which must be overcome for the Democratic candidate to win Arkansas.

              Democrats -- Progress for the Working Class

              by rogun on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 06:49:42 PM PDT

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      •  In what way (11+ / 0-)

        is this the second most Democratic state in the country? It's gone Red for Bush twice, its two Democratic senators are among the caucus' most conservative, and it's the state that gave us Mike Huckabee. They send a Republican (out of four seats) to the House. Sure, they have huge margins in the state lege, but their voter registration numbers don't show any massive Democratic advantage (it's almost all indies).

        Not knocking the state. But "second most Democratic" really would better apply to one of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Illinois, Vermont, New York, etc. Kind of hard to quantify how "Democratic" a state is, but by any logical explanation, a state in which the unpopular Republican nominee is winning by double-digits, worse so than Kerry, is not "the second most Democratic".

        •  My Recollection From 2004 CNN Exit Polls.... (6+ / 0-)

          ...is that Arkansas was second only to West Virginia in terms of the party affiliation of its residents.  And those identifications were not based on decades-old registrations of Southerners who haven't voted Democratic since 1960, but "what party do you currently affiliate yourself with?"

          I realize this is an imperfect metric for measuring support for Obama, but it does suggest there are large numbers of persuadable voters that no effort was made to persuade.

        •  Kos I think he thinks way (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rogun, tresgatos

          Because with the exception of President, races there are dominant by Dems. In DC the two Senators are Dems, 3 out of the 4 house members are Dems. In Little Rock the Legislature has a super Dem majority, the state offices are dominated by Dems and the state elected a Dem governor in Mike Beebe in 2006.

          Problems with all this is EVERYONE IN THAT STATE IS A CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRAT. When it comes to voting on the national level the GOP nominee reflects their conservative views. This is the same for West Virginia.

        •  More like the most Dixiecratic (0+ / 0-)

          AR Democrats ain't like other Democrats.  This is possibly the most evangelical state in the US.  Certainly one of the most isolated, media market wise.

          Send Bubba and Hillary and Wes to stump around if you want, but IMOH, this time it's not worth the resources.

          Although, I'd love to see a nice kick to the balls for Wal-Mart and Tyson, union-wise

        •  But (0+ / 0-)

          If I remember correctly Huckabee might have lost his 1st election if the DNC had given just a smidgen of support to Jimmie Lou Fisher who ended up given Huck a good run for the election.

          I'm still not sure that Arkansas is ready to elect a black dude. Plus I still run into folks who are mad that Hillary did not get the nomination and are voting for McCain because of it.

      •  incorrect (4+ / 0-)

        It hasn't been a lot of effort, but Hillary Clinton was campaigning for Obama in Arkansas a couple of weeks ago and Bill Clinton is there right now.

        The campaign has three offices in Arkansas and is running Camp Obama training there.

        When polling in Arkansas shows that it is worth spending more resources there, then the campaign will do so.

      •  Obama Didn't "Contest" Mississippi Either! (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Murdershewrote

        So what?

        Whites there are still bitter about the civil rights movement forcing them to desegregate their lunchrooms.

        The redneck cracker vote is going to have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century. They don't like it and they want to hate them some "N-----s!"

        It's still more important that the White man not lose too much ground. A man's gotta take a stand after all.

      •  I don't blame him. (0+ / 0-)
        It would have been a waste of money & time.  Too many bigots, racists, and single issue voters here.  I live near Little Rock which is blue for everything but pres elections, for which it is purple.  Most other places are closer to red for pres.

        The terror alert has been raised to chartreuse.
        --
        This message was brought to you

        by cowgirl on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 10:41:19 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Any state with part of the Confederate flag... (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lauramp, jds1978, dotster, KimD, Murdershewrote

      making up the State banner will not likely vote for Obama.

      Larry Kissel mojo'ed me and I liked it.

      by David Kroning on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 02:00:10 PM PDT

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    •  "Health care would have been nice but now (0+ / 0-)

      at least gays can't marry and blacks are kept in place"

      Conservatism = greed, hate, fear and ignorance

      by Joe B on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 05:38:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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