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View Diary: Khatami is In--This is a Clear Signal (309 comments)

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  •  Yeah, reformists boycotted for a couple reasons (1+ / 0-)
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    One was the general 'failure' of Khatami's reforms. Between not being able to move his agenda and corruption by some of his business supporters, people just figured one mullah is bad as another and gave up.

    I wonder if that will hold this time? My guess is people learned their lesson...but who knows.

    The other thing is - Ahmadi-Nejad had not only the support of the cleritocracy (though he may not have been their first choice) - but also of the Basij and the Revolutionary Guard. That's a huge get-out-the-vote (and supress-the-other-guy's-vote) machine. Now that he's fucked up the economy so bad and alienated some of his support in the security services he may not retain that advantage.

    Also, he had HUGE grassroots support from the rural poor; they saw the 'reformers' as a bunch of slick Tehranis who could let the illiterate poor starve for all they cared (and there was some truth to this). Went out huge for him. Again, fucking up the economy so bad may cut into this seriously.

    On the other hand, the downside of Khatami is that all of the above, while having soured on Ahmadi-Nejad, might unite into an anyone but Khatami coalition, crack down violently, and just straight-up steal the election.

    My guess is this'll be a pitched battle, and it won't be possible to know in advance who'll win.

    Obama '08: One House, One Spouse. McCain/Palin '08: "...The Aristocrats!"

    by slaney black on Mon Feb 09, 2009 at 06:13:44 AM PST

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