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View Diary: Khatami is In--This is a Clear Signal (309 comments)

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  •  Iran will grow in power (0+ / 0-)

    Iran is gaining in power, it's gradual and has setbacks but their drive to become an international player will gain exponentially when the Americans leave Iraq. Suni power in Iraq has always served as a block to Irans natural affinity with the Iraqi Shia majority. Remember Iraqs' most powerful cleric Al-Sistani was born in the Iranian holy city of Qum, raised and educated among the Ayatollahs, lived there a big portion of his life, hid there during various wars and still maintains a home in Qum and his closeness religiously and politically with the Iranian theocracy. His rival Al-Sader also maintains homes and official offices in Iran and takes refuge there during hard times. The two Shia populations share holy sites and often pilgrimage to each others countries. Not to mention that the Iraqi Shia populance revers Iranian Ayatollahs as much as they rever and listen to Iraqi clerics.

    The Iranian government and its operatives operate freely in the country and are active in all walks of life. They have been waiting patiently, especially Ayatollah Al Sistani, for the Americans to leave before they put their entire plan into operation. Having stopped what they saw as Bush's attempt to use Iraq as a major American/Israeli base with which to dominate the region they can now turn Iraq into a base of their own.

    As soon as America leaves the drums of war against Israel will grow more insistant and Iraq will mirror Iran on most foreign policies(how closly depends on how many troops America leaves and how much influence the US maintains). Iraqi money and maybe even weapons will flow into Gaza and the West Bank and even some seasoned radicals may go there to fight. Large demonstrations against Israel have already happened during the recent Gaza excursion and big majorities of this heavily armed population supports the Palistianian cause.

    Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld have created a dangerous situation that will very likly blow up in Obama's face. Hamas and Hizbollah both have a potential new patron and Iranian policies will have a new and powerful supporter on their flank and in their sphere of influence.

    •  i doubt that (0+ / 0-)

      Iraqis are deeply suspicious of Iranian..Afterall , they went to war against them.

      Also , the Iraqi islamic party got their head handed out to them during the past provincial election and many in Iraq says it was because of their deep closeness with Theran.

      AlSadr , which is also another Iranian puppet , is no longer the powerful figure that he was once.

      The fact that Al Maliki has grown into a strong leader , will also check Iranian influence...A weaker Al Maliki is better for Iran...

      Just like you mentioned , sunnis are the less trustful of Iran...Sunnis are now in strong control of the western part of Iraq after the elction...They boycotted the last election and were out of power eventhough they were in the majority in ambar and other sunni populated areas.

      And finally , Obama will keep american troops in Iraq was a long long time...We wont have 100k troops in Iraq , but you need to understand that we will also NO HAVE "0" troops in iraq for decades.

      I see a long term base in Iraq..mark my words.

      All this will check Iran influence in Iraq.

      •  Al Maliki (1+ / 0-)
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        Al Maliki often consults with Iran and always with the Ayatollah Sistani before he makes policy. Sadamm went to war against Iran with American help and both countries remember it with hatred for Sadamm not each other. All political roads in Iraq will lead through Iran within a year after we leave the cities. I know Americans will close their eyes at first and deny it as long as they can but in the end what Bush wrought will come home to roost.

        I hope you and I can remember this difference of opinion and revisit it in a year. I'm sure that before Obama's next state of the union speech what I said will be clear and he'll have to readjust his timetable on leaving to avoid giving Iran free rein.

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