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View Diary: MO-Sen: Dems suffering from intensity gap (246 comments)

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  •  The largest factor in the enthusiasm gap (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Detlef, Superribbie, Brian B, Willa Rogers

    Is that Barack Obama is NOT on the ballot. There were significant numbers of voters that came out in 2008 or registered for the first time or re-registered after not voting for a long time because Barack Obama was on the ballot. Further, there was a significant number of people that ONLY voted for Barack Obama and for no other candidates or issues on the ballot at all. One need only look at the differences in voting on the down ticket races to see those effects in action.

    This part of the electorate had little interest in the Democratic Party as a whole. And while it isn't massively large it is significant enough in size where elections that were close that Democrats pulled off in Red or Purple districts last time out might just go the other way.

    These are the voters that won't be showing up unless you can get to them and get them to the polls. These voters were not swayed in 2008 by any bashing of Democrats or of Barack Obama. They wouldn't be swayed by it now.

    The people you lament about ARE the ones engaged in politics. Some of them are activists. Almost all of them will be going to the polls in November. The same can't be said of those not actively following politics or have little to no interest whatsoever in politics at all.

    The Administration and Congressional Democrats moving legislation and policy to the right and attacking or ignoring the elements of the Left that were trying to hold the line or move legislation and policies to the left didn't help. Thus, there will also be some issues with turnout or even third party voting but you are more likely to see these in liberal strongholds rather than in contentious purple or red districts.

    That other group that is out there are the folks that voted Democratic last time but have had their enthusiasm sapped by the economy. The number one issue is jobs and, rightly or wrongly, the Administration and Congressional actions or inactions in this area are perceived to be a failure and are going to play a role in the November elections. This is something that the folks you lament about were warning about and, in some cases, trying to change.

    The problems for the Democrats aren't here. They are out there. If you aren't aware of that you haven't been paying attention.

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