OK

This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.

ATTENTION: READ THE RULES.

  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

Mitt Romney listens to questions in Jacksonville, FL
Tis the beginning of the end, Mitt.
If you look into the latest battleground poll from NBC, a few things stand out:

1. The undecideds are few and Barack Obama has a structural lead.

In Virginia, Obama leads 49 to 44, but only 5 are undecided. Furthermore, only 2% say they might switch before election day. That means even if Romney swept all the undecided vote, he'd still only have a tie. He's got a structural problem in Virginia.

In Florida, same story: Obama leads 49 to 44, but only 5 are undecided. He could win all of them and still be no closer to victory. Same thing, only 2% say they might flip before election day. He's got a structural problem in Florida.

In Ohio, the news is devastating: Obama leads 50 to 44, and once again only 5 are undecided. If Romney swept all the remaining undecideds, he's still going to lose Ohio. Worse, only 2% might flip.

What this means is that Romney has to start winning over committed Obama voters if he wants to win. An almost impossible feat considering the kind of campaign he has to run to get his white vote number up into the 60 to 65 percent range. What is the structural problem of which I speak? Demographics. The Republican Party is beginning to run into the demographic wall that has been foretold for years.

2. First Read notes a key point about these three states:

These states – all of which Obama carried in 2008 but which George W. Bush won in 2004 – represent three of the most crucial battlegrounds in the 2012 presidential election. And according to NBC’s electoral map, Romney likely needs to capture at least two of these states, if not all three, to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

By comparison, Obama can reach 270 by winning just one or two of these battlegrounds  – on top of the other states already considered to be in his column.

In other words, one of Romney's must win states is already gone, namely Ohio. This means Romney has to win Virginia and Florida together. The only way he can do that is by convincing some Obama voters to flip.

Meanwhile, all President Obama has to do is win Ohio and any other battleground state out there. He's in a commanding position with multiple strategic and tactical maneuvers at his disposal.

3. The poll was broad, surveying just under 1000 likely voters in each state and has a very low margin of error at 2.7%. Obama is ahead beyond the margin of error in every state.

4. The poll was conducted on the 9th, 10th, and 11th. Which means it full absorbed the Democratic Convention and Friday, September 7th jobs number. Notably, the poll was conducted before the Libya Incident.

That's the nail in the coffin for Romney. If the jobs numbers can't change the trajectory for him, his bet that a bad economy would sink Obama looks like a flimsy premise.

There are some other nuggets noting that the country still feels the country is on the wrong track, but there has been some improvement. Also, President Obama's job approval is up into positive territory and Mitt Romney has improved his favorability somewhat. When you take those factors together, it seems the voters in the battlegrounds have come to a conclusion: Mitt Romney is unfit to be president. America is sticking with President Obama.

Intro

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Triple-B in the Building on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:53 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.