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Received this e-mail today from Progressive Hero Congressman Alan Grayson (D. FL-9) in support of Elzabeth Colbert Busch (D) in her race against disgraced former Governor Mark Sandford in the First District Special Election tomorrow:
You can click here to donate:I'm trying my best. But there is a limit to what I can accomplish when there are 232 Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives (a/k/a “the Comatose Caucus”) and only 201 Democrats.
If we're going to win more votes, and pass more good bills, then we need more Democrats. Democracy is like that.Tomorrow, there is a special election in South Carolina to replace Tim Scott, who was the last remaining African-American Republican in the House. (There are 42 African-American Democrats in the House.) The Republican nominee is former Governor Sanford. The Democratic nominee is Elizabeth Colbert Busch. Despite the fact that President Obama lost this district last year by 18 points, in the latest poll, the two candidates are only one point apart.
I'm not going to make fun of Governor Sanford. That's just too easy.
Nor am I going to ask you to support Colbert Busch because her brother is Stephen Colbert of the Comedy Central Channel. By the same token, I will not ask you to support Warren Beatty for Congress just because his sister is Shirley MacLaine. Same thing with Charlie Sheen and Emilio Estevez. Also Peter Graves and James Arness. And Olivia de Havilland and Joan Fontaine.I could ask you to support Colbert Busch because, according to one report, she is pro-choice, she backs marriage equality, and she supports immigration reform. So I could ask you to support her without feeling my gorge rise. But I won't do it for that reason alone.
No, I'm going to ask you to support her campaign because the last thing that we need in the U.S. House of Representatives right now is another Republican. And the thing that we do need is more Democrats. Seventeen more Democrats, to be exact.
We've established a contribution page to help her campaign. Click here, etc., etc:
Let's take back the House.
Rep. Alan Grayson
PPP's latest poll shows that the race is too close to call:
PPP surveyed 1,239 likely voters on May 4th and 5th. By tying Colbert Busch to President Obama and Nancy Pelosi, Sanford has been able to regain his momentum hence the slight lead with likely voters. Colbert Busch has had to distance herself from her party every now and then, understandable with this race. Colbert Busch has spoken out against the chained CPI by the way, one of the few things I approve Democrats distancing themselves from Obama on.PPP's final poll of the special election in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District finds a race that's too close to call, with Republican Mark Sanford leading Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch 47-46. The 1 point lead for Sanford represents a 10 point reversal from PPP's poll of the race two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch led by 9 points at 50-41.
Sanford has gotten back into the race by nationalizing it and painting Colbert Busch as a liberal. A plurality of voters in the district- 47%- say they think Colbert Busch is a liberal compared to 43% who characterize her as ideologically 'about right.' Colbert Busch's favorability rating has dropped a net 19 points compared to 2 weeks ago, from +25 then at 56/31 to +6 now at 50/44.
The other key development in this race over the last two weeks is that Republicans are returning to the electorate. On our last poll, conducted right after the trespassing charges against Sanford became public, we found that the likely electorate had voted for Mitt Romney by only 5 points in a district that he actually won by 18. That suggested many Republican voters were depressed and planning to stay home. On our final poll we find an electorate that's Romney +13- that's still more Democratic than the turnout from last fall, but it's a lot better for Sanford than it was a couple weeks ago. - PPP, 5/5/13
I can't say that I'm surprised. This is a red district and with big names like Nikki Haley, Ron Paul, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham and Tim Scott endorsing Sanford, the South Carolina GOP is very worried about losing this race tomorrow. They thought that by sitting this race out to save their own images and let Sanford win this race by himself. Well they underestimated how embarrassing of a candidate Sanford was and so they've had to bail him out this late in the game. Now PPP notes that Colbert Busch is still much more liked than Sanford despite voters disagreeing with her on the issues. Plus the sample was super small, only 50
But Chris Cillizza and Sean Sullivan say there's an upside to Colbert Busch and Democrats losing tomorrow's race:
We did lose Rep. Kathy Hochul's (D. NY-26) seat in 2012 after winning it in the 2011 special election. There might be some truth in Cillizza and Sullivan's analysis but I would still like to win this race. Mark Sanford is just too much of a joke and I like beating Republicans on their home turf. Plus if we win this race, it means bigger trouble for Governor Nikki Haley (R. SC) next year in her rematch with State Senator Vincent Sheheen (D. SC).Sanford is damaged goods, politically speaking, thanks to his acknowledgment in 2009 that he had disappeared from the state to visit his mistress in Argentina as well as more recent revelations that he had trespassed in his ex-wife’s house in order to watch the Super Bowl with one of his four sons.
And it’s not just in South Carolina where people know about Sanford and his transgressions over the past four years. His initial defense of his 2009 absence — Sanford told staff he was “hiking the Appalachian Trail” (thereby ruining any actual hiking trips for married men everywhere) — became a national story and made the then-governor a punchline for late-night comedians.
A Sanford victory puts that guy in the House Republican Conference. That means that not only do the late-night jokes start again but, more importantly, every GOPer in the House and Senate will be asked whether they support Sanford and what they think of serving with him.
That reality is why the National Republican Congressional Committee essentially washed its collective hands of Sanford once the trespassing revelations went public. The party establishment wanted (and wants) to make clear that they have nothing to do with Sanford. It won’t matter. The narrative that Republicans have a woman problem will have new life — with little the GOP leadership can do about it.
Yes, there is, of course, the opposite argument to be made: That losing a winnable House seat is never a good thing, no matter how many potential problems a Congressman Sanford might create for his party.
True enough. Winning is better than losing. (Statements like that are why the Fix is a Pulitzer favorite every year.) But consider the current state of play for House Democrats: They control just 201 seats, meaning they need to pick up 17 to reclaim the majority in November 2014. A win by Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in tomorrow’s special election would drop that magic number to 16.
But it’s very difficult to see Colbert Busch holding the seat — there are 119 Republicans currently in Congress that represent districts more Democratic than this one — next November. So, Colbert Busch would be a badly endangered incumbent from the moment she won but would also, as an incumbent, command resources be spent by the national party for a race she probably couldn’t win. In short: Colbert Busch would be renting the seat for 19 months — and the rent would be VERY high.
Seen from a national perspective then, a Sanford win could very well wind up as a tactical defeat but a strategic victory for Democrats. That’s not to say they aren’t trying to win — they very much are — but that there’s much more going on than simply a “W” or an “L” here. - Washington Post, 5/6/13
If you live in South Carolina and need to find your polling place for tomorrow's election, you can do so here:
If you would like to get involved with GOTV efforts for tomorrow's election, you can get involved with the Colbert Busch campaign here: