This is only a Preview!

You must Publish this diary to make this visible to the public,
or click 'Edit Diary' to make further changes first.

Posting a Diary Entry

Daily Kos welcomes blog articles from readers, known as diaries. The Intro section to a diary should be about three paragraphs long, and is required. The body section is optional, as is the poll, which can have 1 to 15 choices. Descriptive tags are also required to help others find your diary by subject; please don't use "cute" tags.

When you're ready, scroll down below the tags and click Save & Preview. You can edit your diary after it's published by clicking Edit Diary. Polls cannot be edited once they are published.

If this is your first time creating a Diary since the Ajax upgrade, before you enter any text below, please press Ctrl-F5 and then hold down the Shift Key and press your browser's Reload button to refresh its cache with the new script files.


  1. One diary daily maximum.
  2. Substantive diaries only. If you don't have at least three solid, original paragraphs, you should probably post a comment in an Open Thread.
  3. No repetitive diaries. Take a moment to ensure your topic hasn't been blogged (you can search for Stories and Diaries that already cover this topic), though fresh original analysis is always welcome.
  4. Use the "Body" textbox if your diary entry is longer than three paragraphs.
  5. Any images in your posts must be hosted by an approved image hosting service (one of: imageshack.us, photobucket.com, flickr.com, smugmug.com, allyoucanupload.com, picturetrail.com, mac.com, webshots.com, editgrid.com).
  6. Copying and pasting entire copyrighted works is prohibited. If you do quote something, keep it brief, always provide a link to the original source, and use the <blockquote> tags to clearly identify the quoted material. Violating this rule is grounds for immediate banning.
  7. Be civil. Do not "call out" other users by name in diary titles. Do not use profanity in diary titles. Don't write diaries whose main purpose is to deliberately inflame.
For the complete list of DailyKos diary guidelines, please click here.

Please begin with an informative title:

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/21-22. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines.)

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 41
Bush won the state 54-45 in 2004. There was some hope that Obama could narrow the gap, especially given his national gains the past couple of weeks. But alas, it looks like when all's said and done (and the unusually high African American undecided vote is factored in), Obama will likely perform along the same lines as Kerry did in 2004.

You must enter an Intro for your Diary Entry between 300 and 1150 characters long (that's approximately 50-175 words without any html or formatting markup).


The Research 2000 Arkansas Poll was conducted from October 21 through October
22, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


Men                  286 (48%)
Women                314 (52%)

Democrats            252 (42%)
Republicans          180 (30%)
Other                168 (28%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                197 (33%)
45-59                193 (32%)
60+                  102 (17%)

White                511 (85%)
Black                 83 (14%)
Other                  6 (1%)

QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 52%         41%          2%          5%

MEN                 55%         39%          2%          4%
WOMEN               49%         43%          2%          6%

DEMOCRATS           23%         72%          2%          3%
REPUBLICANS         89%          5%          1%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         34%          3%          6%

18-29               50%         44%          2%          4%
30-44               55%         39%          2%          4%
45-59               52%         40%          2%          6%
60+                 52%         41%          1%          6%

WHITE               60%         34%          2%          4%
BLACK                4%         83%         -           13%

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:50 PM PDT.

Your Email has been sent.