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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/21-22. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines.)

McCain (R) 52
Obama (D) 41
Bush won the state 54-45 in 2004. There was some hope that Obama could narrow the gap, especially given his national gains the past couple of weeks. But alas, it looks like when all's said and done (and the unusually high African American undecided vote is factored in), Obama will likely perform along the same lines as Kerry did in 2004.
Intro

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ARKANSAS POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008

The Research 2000 Arkansas Poll was conducted from October 21 through October
22, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.



SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  286 (48%)
Women                314 (52%)

Democrats            252 (42%)
Republicans          180 (30%)
Other                168 (28%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                197 (33%)
45-59                193 (32%)
60+                  102 (17%)

White                511 (85%)
Black                 83 (14%)
Other                  6 (1%)


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA       OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 52%         41%          2%          5%

MEN                 55%         39%          2%          4%
WOMEN               49%         43%          2%          6%

DEMOCRATS           23%         72%          2%          3%
REPUBLICANS         89%          5%          1%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         34%          3%          6%

18-29               50%         44%          2%          4%
30-44               55%         39%          2%          4%
45-59               52%         40%          2%          6%
60+                 52%         41%          1%          6%

WHITE               60%         34%          2%          4%
BLACK                4%         83%         -           13%

Extended (Optional)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 25, 2008 at 01:50 PM PDT.

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