A week ago in my last diary, I projected how things would look without GOP pollsters gumming up the works. Obviously, anyone who believes GOP polls should contact me so I can sell them a bridge. The polls have only gotten worse since last week, but again, that was mainly among the right-wing astroturf polls that Nate Silver and the other Very Serious People now take at face value. That's not to say we haven't fallen in reliable polls as well, we certainly have, but the fall isn't nearly as big as the forecasting websites and GOP polls would have you believe.

Old map:

New map:

There have been seven changes, all in favor of Romney as the post-debate polling finally sinks in.

Colorado: Lean D -> Toss Up
Virginia: Lean D -> Toss Up
Nevada: Likely D -> Lean D
Ohio: Likely D -> Lean D
Wisconsin: Likely D -> Lean D
Michigan: Safe D -> Likely D
New Hampshire: Safe D -> Likely D

Obviously, there's not much for Dems to like here. But there are definitely some silver linings. For one, despite the fact that this was Obama's worst news cycle since the debt ceiling crisis and his firewall is still intact bodes well for a Dem victory, even if it is narrow. If Romney can't break through in Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada in his best week ever, how can he ever hope to in the next three weeks? Especially when he's getting pounded by Obama's ground game. Additionally, Romney has yet to bring any more states into his column (although North Carolina and Florida are both on the precipice of becoming "Lean R", and may very well do so once more reliable polling comes in in these states).

Now for the Senate:

There's only been 3 changes here in the past week, 2 in favor of the GOP and 1 in favor of Dems.

Florida: Safe D -> Likely D
Nevada: Toss Up -> Lean R

Virginia: Lean D -> Likely D

It's not exactly clear what is causing Kaine's surge in Virginia, especially since Obama is fading there at the same time. But the polls have been very clear. Personally I don't buy that Heller maintains any distinct advantage in Nevada, and may even be the underdog, due to the fact that polls there have drastically understated Latino turnout in the last 3 elections. I guess we'll see if that trend holds this year as well. Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV gets his first sign of life in Florida from a non GOP pollster in a long, long time with a Mason Dixon poll showing him "only" down 5...in a sample with Romney leading by 7. Yeah, I think it's curtains for McGillicuddy, despite We Ask America's and Gravis's protestations of a dead heat race.

Likely D: MO(D), OH(D), PA(D), VA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: CT(D), MA(R)*, WI(D)
Toss Up: AZ(R), IN(R), MT(D), ND(D)
Lean R: NV(R)

Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 51-45-4.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).


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