New Jersey: Chris Christie helping Obama win and putting his state first after Hurricane Sandy has definitely helped his chances here. His most likely opponent is Cory Booker. Lean R

Virginia: Bob McDonnell of vaginal probe fame is term limited. Terry McAuliffe has already announced he is running for the Dems, while right wing extremist Ken Cuccinelli likely will for the Republicans. A potential wild card is former Gov. Mark Warner, if he jumped in this seat would be in the Dem column for sure. Toss Up


Arizona: The sleeping giant of Arizona Latinos will awaken someday. It probably won't be in 2014 though. Whichever Republican runs will likely have the edge. Lean R

Arkansas: Popular Gov. Mike Beebe is term limited, and who his successor will be will determine whether or not Arkansas is still willing to elect non-incumbent vestigial conservative Democrats. Judging from the House elections there in 2012, I'm guessing probably not, so the GOP has an edge here. Lean R - GOP pickup

Colorado: John Hickenlooper has decent approval ratings, so he starts with the edge here. Lean D

Connecticut: PPP has shown Dan Malloy with weak approval ratings, so he could be potentially vulnerable here. But Connecticut is still a deep blue state, so he has the edge. Lean D

Florida: Rick Scott is toxic, and PPP shows even generic Dem candidates with no name recognition would trounce him. Unless he retires, this is Lean D - Dem pickup

Georgia: Nathan Deal is corrupt, but Georgia is red. Likely R

Illinois: Pat Quinn is very unpopular and probably won't run again. Any Dem will start with the edge, especially Lisa Madigan. Lean D

Iowa: Terry Branstad isn't setting the roof on fire, but his popularity has held up well enough to start with the edge here. Lean R

Maine: Paul LePage was elected in a fluke when the Dem and independent split the anti-teabagger vote in 2010. He's likely dead meat. Lean D - Dem pickup

Massachusetts: Massachusetts is very blue, but votes for Republican governors a lot. Additionally, Scott Brown may be waiting in the wings, a race in which his party will matter much less. Lean D

Michigan: Rick Snyder's popularity has fluctuated and Michigan is a blue state. Toss Up

Minnesota: Mark Dayton's approval has held up fairly well. Lean D

Nevada: Brian Sandoval won in a landslide despite the fact that the state is trending blue, and he continues to be popular. We'd need a miracle here. Likely R

New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan was just elected in a landslide, and she's fairly centrist. She'll probably be okay here. Likely D

New Mexico: Same story as Nevada, Susana Martinez is very popular. Likely R

Ohio: John Kasich was once in the dumps like Rick Scott, but he's recovered since then, and this will be a real race. Toss Up

Oregon: John Kitzhaber has decent approval ratings and is the favorite. Lean D

Pennsylvania: Tom Corbett is toxic and under suspicion for his involvement in the Sandusky mess. He may even retire. Until the field shapes out, this is Lean D - Dem pickup

Rhode Island: Independent Lincoln Chafee has gotten very unpopular. He may end up being the de facto Democrat, or perhaps not. I'll just give this a Likely D for now.

South Carolina: Nikki Haley's win in 2010 was less than impressive, but it's a very polarized state and we have no real bench here. Likely R

Texas: This could be potentially interesting if Rick Perry runs for re-election. He's become toxic after his joke of a presidential bid, so a good Dem opponent could stand a good chance here. Lean R

Wisconsin: Scott Walker won by making the recall a referendum on the recall, not a referendum on him. But he's shown he has what it takes to survive, and probably will again unless a top tier opponent steps up. Lean R


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