In a new PPP Poll, issued this morning, Mark Sanford now holds a 1 point advantage in the SC-01 race, a nearly 10 point swing over previous polling data.
Should Sanford pull out a win, it would be one of the most astounding political resurrections I could remember, in which religious southern conservatives rally for a man who took state money to go visit a mistress in another continent.
A Public Policy Polling survey released Sunday evening shows the two candidates locked in a virtual dead heat, with Sanford leading Colbert Busch 47 percent to 46 percent. The numbers show a dramatic shift in the race from two weeks ago, when Colbert Busch held a 9-point lead over Sanford in the PPP poll. That poll was conducted after the Republican was accused of trespassing at his ex-wife's home and was subsequently dropped by the National Republican Campaign Committee.
Despite those setbacks, Sunday's poll indicates that Sanford's efforts to brand Colbert Busch as a liberal may be helping drive down the Democrat's favorability with voters in the heavily Republican 1st Congressional District. During a debate last week, Sanford repeatedly attempted to connect his rival to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and criticized her for accepting campaign donations from labor groups. And in a high profile moment last month, Sanford held a mock debate with a cardboard cutout of Pelosi on a sidewalk to jab Colbert Busch on avoiding public appearances.
Although his "debate" with Pelosi was widely mocked, Sanford's strategy may be paying off. The new PPP poll shows Colbert Busch's favorability dropping a net 19 points since the April poll. Sanford himself remains fairly unpopular with voters, with 54 percent of respondents saying they have an unfavorable opinion of the scandal-plagued former governor.
I had followed this somewhat yesterday, when one of my spam accounts (I subscribe to all the political updates from both sides) received this email:
Dear Mersh,Make no doubt about it, the key campaign for these people is that Obstruction is the only policy they care about. While polling shows the race now in a dead heat, within the margins this is a race that Democrats have a chance to make a sea change. To show up in an off-year election in a red district and start to switch it.
With just under 24 hours left until voters head to the polls in South Carolina's 1st District special election, the latest polls show that the race is tightening.
Just a week ago, Elizabeth Colbert Busch held as much as a 9-point lead. Mark Sanford has closed that deficit and the race is now a dead heat.
Your generous contributions so far have allowed us to test messages to find the most effective to erase Colbert Busch's lead. We then translated that messaging into phone calls, TV ad buys, and print advertising.
You can see from the polls that our efforts seem to be helping. And we can make more of an impact in the final hours with your help.
Can you click here now to pledge your support in this critical race with a contribution of $10, $25, $50, $100, or more if you can?
If you care about the full and complete repeal of ObamaCare, this race is crucially important. If Elizabeth Colbert Busch wins, she could hold this seat for decades, making it that much more difficult to get ObamaCare repeal passed in the House.
The money is flowing in for Colbert Busch. When all is said and done, the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee and others will spend roughly $1 million to defeat Mark Sanford and elect Elizabeth Colbert Busch.
We won't spend that much, but because we know what messages work and are most effective with voters, we don't have to.
We're looking to raise another $30,000 today to fuel our final Get Out The Vote efforts.
Can you help make a difference in this race and for ObamaCare repeal with a contribution today of $10, $25, $50, $100, or more if you can?
In a special election like this, every vote matters even more than usual.
Help us be a part of making the difference in tomorrow's election by electing a true free market conservative who supports full and complete repeal of ObamaCare.
Thank you for your support.
Heather R. Higgins
President & CEO
Independent Women's Voice
In order to make a change for the future, we need to worry about converting districts that are on the reddish-side of the hue to our perspective. SC-01 is as good of a place to start as any.
Mark Sanford is unpopular here; he has had little national support. The (R)s are right - 24 hours are left. Donate, volunteer, and of course get out and vote. Now is not the time to send another candidate who's only goal is obstruction to the capital.