Although interim Alabama Sen. Luther Strange has the backing of both Donald Trump and Sen. Mitch McConnell, his candidacy to claim Jeff Sessions' old seat is flagging against fire-breathing conservative Roy Moore. Moore, who's been removed from the Alabama Supreme Court bench twice for defying the federal judiciary, is looking strong in state polls ahead of his Sept. 26 runoff against Strange, even registering double-digit leads in some cases.
This has Senate Republicans extremely worried. Not only is there bad blood between McConnell and Moore, but Moore's victory could give rise to a crop of GOP grenade throwers in the 2018 primaries. Politico writes:
A win by Moore could embolden conservative insurgents to challenge [Arizona Sen. Jeff] Flake and Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) and potentially Sens. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) and Bob Corker (R-Tenn.).
That’s a nightmare for Republicans that are trying to add to their majority next year — 10 Democrats are up for reelection in states that Trump won last year — not play defense.
“I hope he makes it,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). “‘Cause if there’s no place for Luther Strange, then we’re all in trouble.”
Not surprisingly, Senate Republicans are pulling out all the stops to push Strange over the finish line.
[Texas Sen. John] Cornyn said he urged Strange to concentrate on turnout during a National Republican Senatorial Committee lunch on Tuesday, rather than TV ads. The Senate’s campaign arm is mobilizing to help Strange pull off an upset: A large contingent of NRSC staffers is working on the race, both in Alabama and from Washington; one senator said it’s the bulk of the NRSC’s staff.
In addition, Strange has had millions of dollars in ads aired on his behalf by the McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund. He has the support of virtually all of his Senate colleagues except for Cruz, who says he doesn’t get involved in primaries involving incumbents.
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Moore's win would be a two-fold problem for the GOP. McConnell already has no room for error with his 52-seat majority, especially with Sen. John McCain's health challenges. Every senator has the ability to be a show stopper.
But perhaps even more grave is what a Moore win could say about the electoral climate for Republican incumbents heading into the midterms.
Don’t forget, Moore has run for higher office in Alabama before — and got clobbered. When he ran for governor in 2006, incumbent Bob Riley bested him in the GOP primary by a 2-to-1 margin. Four years later, he came in FOURTH in the GOP gubernatorial primary, getting just 19 percent of the vote.
So given those past failures, why is Moore likely headed for success in two weeks? Here’s a theory: In the Trump era, it’s much easier for a controversial (and well-known) figure to win a GOP primary than during the Bush era (when “compassionate conservatism” was the mantra) or even the Tea Party era (when fiscal matters often overshadowed social ones).
A string of costly GOP primary challenges from the right could have disastrous effects for Republicans hoping to pad their majority in what should otherwise be a tough map for Democrats.