The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● Primary Calendar: Daily Kos Elections is proud to unveil our 2020 downballot calendar, where you'll find our list of major-party filing deadlines, primaries, and runoffs for the 2020 elections for all 50 states' congressional and state primaries. Note, though, that some states conduct presidential primaries on different dates (for those, see Frontloading HQ's calendar).
Campaign Action
One of the things we pay careful attention to at Daily Kos Elections is each state's candidate filing deadline, since it represents the point at which prospective candidates need to decide whether or not they'll actually run for office. Our first deadlines for 2020 are actually coming up this year, as Alabama kicks us off on Nov. 8. Arkansas' deadline is days later on Nov. 11, and throughout December, deadlines will pass in California, Illinois, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas.
We also include important notes about filing deadlines. Nebraska, for example, has a unique law that requires any incumbents, regardless of whether they are seeking re-election or another office, to file by Feb. 15; the deadline for everyone else is March 1. We also list states where party conventions are important for determining ballot access, winnowing the field, or officially picking nominees. As conventions are scheduled, we'll add them to our calendar throughout the cycle.
We also have details about which states require primary runoffs, including what percentage of the vote is needed in each state to trigger a primary runoff. For instance, in Texas a primary runoff is needed if no candidates take a majority of the vote, while in North Carolina, runoffs are only conducted if no one takes more than 30%—and then only if the runner-up requests one.
So, when does the 2020 downballot primary season kick off? On March 3, which is also Super Tuesday for the presidential primaries, Alabama, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, and Texas are all on tap. Primaries continue until Sept. 15, when Delaware, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island go to the polls (though Louisiana holds its jungle primary on Election Day in November of 2020).
There's a lot to explore, so you should check out—and bookmark—our calendar for all the details.
Senate
● AL-Sen: State Rep. Arnold Mooney recently picked up an endorsement from the Senate Conservatives Fund, an anti-establishment group whose influence in GOP primaries has precariously declined during the Trump era. According to OpenSecrets, SCF spent a total of $2.1 million on independent expenditures during the 2018 cycle, but they didn't splurge on any competitive primaries. The group's top investments were a pair of $277,000 expenditures in the Tennessee and Texas Senate races, where their allies Marsha Blackburn and incumbent Ted Cruz didn't face any serious intra-party opponents.
● KS-Sen: Conservative Political Action Conference chair Matt Schlapp had been quiet for months about his interest in this open seat race, but he confirmed Tuesday that he was indeed still considering seeking the GOP nod. Schlapp, whose wife, Mercedes Schlapp, is Trump's director of strategic communication, told the Kansas City Star he wanted to see if a prominent conservative runs. However, Schlapp acknowledged that a campaign "might not be the most opportune time for my family."
Schlapp is a Wichita native, but he acknowledged back in March that he lives in Alexandria, Virginia. Schlapp argued back then that residency wouldn't be an issue since he's a "homeowner in Wichita," though he confirmed this week that that house is where his mother resides; the paper writes that Schlapp "controls a limited liability company that has an ownership stake in the Wichita house." Of course, as retiring GOP Sen. Pat Roberts learned the hard way in 2014, having a Beltway address very much can be an issue for voters.
Gubernatorial
● IN-Gov: Democratic state Sen. Eddie Melton announced Tuesday that he was forming an exploratory committee for a potential bid against GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb. Melton, who would be Indiana's first black governor, was elected to a safely blue seat in the Gary area in 2016.
● LA-Gov: Remington Research is out with another poll for GOP Rep. Ralph Abraham of this year's gubernatorial race, and they find their client in slightly better shape in both the October jungle primary and in a hypothetical November general election with Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards than they did in March.
Edwards leads in the jungle primary with 42%, while Abraham beats out wealthy businessman and fellow Republican Eddie Rispone 34-8 for the second spot in a general election; in March, Edwards took 44%, while Abraham and Rispone were at 33% and 10%, respectively. In a hypothetical general election Remington finds Edwards and Abraham deadlocked 45-45, a slight improvement for the Republican from Edwards' previous 47-45 edge. They also find the incumbent leading Rispone 49-38, which is quite a bit better for Edwards than his 48-42 lead last time.
This poll was taken June 1 through June 2, days after Edwards signed a bill passed by the GOP legislature that would ban abortions in the state after just six weeks, which is before many women know they're pregnant, without any exemptions for rape or incest. It's unclear how this move will impact Edwards' re-election bid this year, though Remington finds the governor's favorable rating barely altered from 45-42 in March to 44-40 in June.
This is the first poll we've seen of this fall's contest in over a month. The last survey we saw came in late April from the GOP firm JMC Analytics on behalf of a lobbying firm that works for a number of prominent industrial companies. That poll gave Edwards 38% in the jungle primary and had Abraham beating Rispone 23-7 for the second spot. In hypothetical one-on-one matchups, Edwards edged Abraham and 40-36 and led Rispone 41-28.
● MO-Gov: While state Auditor Nicole Galloway, who is the only statewide Democrat left in Missouri, didn't seem very likely to challenge GOP Gov. Mike Parson back in January, she seems a whole lot more interested now. Unnamed sources tell the Kansas City Star that Galloway "is leaning toward a run, and that Missouri's eight-week abortion ban may be the factor that tips the scales."
Galloway hasn't publicly expressed interest yet, but she made it very clear over the weekend what she thinks about Parson and the anti-abortion bill he recently signed. Galloway told a Democratic gathering that the governor "wants rapists in Missouri to have more power over their victims," and that "[h]e wants a woman's decision over her health care to be criminalized. These positions are both extreme and cruel."
Galloway also invoked former Gov. Eric Greitens, who resigned in disgrace last year and was succeeded by Parson. She told her audience, "When it comes to your state government, when it comes to secrecy and corruption, simply not being as awful as Eric Greitens is too low of a standard to strive for."
Galloway was appointed state auditor in 2015 by then-Gov. Jay Nixon after Republican incumbent Tom Schweich died, and she ran for election for the first time last year. 2018 wasn't a very good year for Show Me State Democrats but Galloway won 50-45 even as Sen. Claire McCaskill was losing 51-46.
● UT-Gov: Former Rep. Jason Chaffetz announced on Monday that he would stay out of the GOP primary to succeed Utah Gov. Gary Herbert. Chaffetz had been eyeing this race for years, and he kept his options open even as he was resigning from Congress in 2017. But Chaffetz, who got a gig as a Fox News commentator just after his departure from the House, said this week, "I really thought I was maybe going to do this, but everything is going exceptionally well with Fox and the public speaking so I'm going to pass on this particular race."
While Republicans are heavily favored to keep the governorship no matter whom they nominate, plenty of progressives will at least be happy that Chaffetz won't be that nominee. Chaffetz, who chaired the House Oversight Committee, delighted in his role aggressively looking into Hillary Clinton's emails ahead of the 2016 election, and he clearly relished the chance to do more "investigating" after the contest was over.
Once Trump won, though, Chaffetz showed absolutely none of the zeal he had when going after Clinton, and he gave Trump almost a complete pass and ended up resigning a few months after he was inaugurated. However, Chaffetz did not rule out a future run for office, so we may still have him to kick around in a future cycle.
P.S.: Chaffetz made the news again on Monday, but in a very different context. On Monday's episode of Jeopardy!, where James Holzhauer's 32-game winning streak came to an end, the former Utah congressman's 2018 book was part of the Daily Double clue that gave contestant Emma Boettcher a lead over Holzhauer that she never relinquished. Host Alex Trebek asked, "On book covers from GOP lawmakers Jason Chaffetz and Mike Lee is this phrase for the bureaucracy said to be working against democracy," to which Boettcher responded, "The deep state." Chaffetz's book is titled, "The Deep State: How an Army of Bureaucrats Protected Barack Obama and Is Working to Destroy the Trump Agenda."
House
● GA-06: Construction company owner Marjorie Taylor Greene announced this week that she was seeking the GOP nod to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath, and she had some choice words for her main primary rivals. Green dubbed state Sen. Brandon Beach "just another government employee," but she trained most of her fire on former Rep. Karen Handel. Greene invoked Handel's many past defeats, including her primary losses for governor in 2010 and Senate in 2014 as well as her upset loss to McBath last year and declared, "I would call her professional campaigner, but she loses."
Handel herself didn't cover herself in glory at a town hall in late March with some ugly comments about McBath. The progressive site ShareBlue posted video where Handel said of the incumbent, "Now she won't be able to run on emotion," adding, "She will have to own her record." What the Republican dismissed as "emotion" is the tragic story about how McBath's teenage son, Jordan Davis, was murdered by a gunman in an apparent hate crime in 2012, which spurred her to become an outspoken gun-safety activist.
● GA-07: Marine veteran Harrison Floyd announced Tuesday that he was exiting the GOP primary for this competitive open seat, and we're not going to miss him. Floyd kicked off his brief campaign last month with a truly gross web video where he told the audience, "I'll fight socialists in Congress the same way I fought terrorists in the desert." In case it wasn't already obvious what he meant, those comments were accompanied by footage of Floyd in fatigues firing his rifle.
However, Floyd has someone in mind to take his place in this contest. He told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that he'd spoken to state Rep. Todd Jones about running, and that Jones is "considering running for the same reasons I am." This is the first time we've heard Jones mentioned for this race, but the paper says he's "widely expected to join the contest."
● MN-02: The Star Tribune reports that former GOP state Sen. John Howe is considering a bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, but he wants to wait to see what former Rep. Jason Lewis does before deciding. Lewis, who lost re-election to Craig last year 53-47, has expressed interest in either seeking a rematch or running for the Senate.
If Howe runs, he probably won't intimidate many fellow Republicans. Howe was elected to his only term in the legislature in 2010 but lost his seat two years later, and since then, he's unsuccessfully sought elected office each cycle. After losing the party convention for secretary of state in 2014, Howe ran here in 2016 for what was an open seat. Howe self-funded most of his campaign's budget but seemed to give up months before the primary, and he ended up taking a distant third place with just 14%.
Howe was Team Red's secretary of state nominee last year and he lost to Democratic incumbent Steve Simon 52-44; Simon carried the 2nd District by a smaller 50-46 spread.
● NY-12: Attorney Erica Vladimer announced this week that she would challenge longtime Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the primary for this safely blue New York City seat. Vladimer, who is 32, told the Huffington Post, "Congress is 435 people big, so this new generation with this new voice needs to be louder, and that means adding new voices," though she didn't seem to say much about why Maloney specifically should be ousted.
Vladimer used to work as a staffer for the Independent Democratic Conference, a breakaway group of Democrats that kept the GOP minority in power for years, where she reported to a top aide for state Sen. and IDC leader Jeff Klein. Last year, Vladimer told HuffPost that in 2015, Klein grabbed her head and "shoved his tongue" down her throat. She further recounted that she'd immediately told him, "Senator, absolutely not," but Klein only proceeded to act like he'd done nothing wrong.
Vladimer told HuffPost she quit her job a month later because of what had happened. Klein's attorney responded to the story by saying the senator "unequivocally" denied it. Several months after the story broke, Klein and five other members of the now-former IDC lost their Democratic primaries. Vladimer went on to co-found an organization focused on combating sexual harassment in the New York state capitol, and HuffPost says her group helped organize the first hearings on the topic there in 27 years.
Maloney was elected back in 1992 when she toppled veteran GOP Rep. Bill Green, and she never had trouble winning re-election for decades. However, that changed last year when attorney and hotel executive Suraj Patel challenged her in the primary for this seat, which is centered around Manhattan's affluent Upper East Side. Patel, who went after Maloney for voting for the Iraq War and her initial opposition to the Obama administration's nuclear agreement with Iran, outraised her and held her to a 60-40 win.
Maloney's showing seems to have inspired more Democrats to consider taking her on this cycle. Patel said last month he was considering another bid, and Dawn Smalls, who worked at the Department of Health and Human Services during the Obama administration, is also reportedly eyeing this contest. New York only requires a plurality of the vote to win a primary, so Maloney would likely benefit if the anti-incumbent vote were split.
● TX-32: Former Florida U.S. Rep. Allen West, who was a favorite of the far-right during his one term in Congress, told the National Journal this week that he was considering a bid against freshman Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in Texas’ 32nd District. Actually, West may be done thinking about it, since he told reporter Ally Mutnick that he and his family have “considered it and prayed about it, and on Independence Day we’ll make a little statement.” However, West didn’t commit to anything, asking at one point, “Do I need to have a title to validate my existence?”
If West does run, he may face a primary against an old colleague. Former Rep. Pete Sessions, whom Allred beat 52-46 last year, sounds very much like he plans to try again. Sessions told Mutnick, “Several things have to be put into place for the party to be able to support a good candidate,” and added, “I fully anticipate I will be that candidate, but I’m not ready to announce that right now.” Mutnick writes that neither West nor Sessions is “likely to defer to the other.”
Other Republicans may also run here. Mutnick writes that former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne, who currently serves in Trump's Housing Department, is eyeing the race, though she hasn’t said anything publicly. However, none of Irving is located in this seat: Most of the city is in Texas' 24th District, which is held by GOP Rep. Kenny Marchant. Mutnick adds that businesswoman Genevieve Collins “is another potential candidate,” but Collins also hasn’t said anything yet. However, while businessman George Seay showed some interest in running back in February, he says he’s decided to stay out.
Seay also expressed his surprise that no one else has jumped in, and indeed, Team Red may very well hope that someone emerges as an alternative to the former congressmen, because both of them may be bad fits for a suburban Dallas seat that swung from 57-42 Romney to 49-47 Clinton.
West was elected in South Florida during the 2010 GOP wave, and he developed a knack for finding unique ways to offend. To take just a pair of examples, West declared that if Nazi propagandist "Joseph Goebbels was around, he'd be very proud of the Democrat Party, because they have an incredible propaganda machine." He also said that "when I see anyone with an Obama 2012 bumper sticker, I recognize them as a threat to the gene pool."
West’s approach helped him raise millions from tea partiers nationwide, but it didn’t play so well at home. In 2012, after redistricting scrambled Florida’s political map, West lost re-election 50.3-49.7 against Democrat Patrick Murphy even as Mitt Romney was carrying his seat 52-48. West spent weeks contesting his defeat, and while he eventually conceded, he charged that "many questions remain unanswered" about the vote totals.
West moved to the Lone Star State in 2014 and went on to serve on the Texas Sunset Advisory Commission, which reviews the efficiency and operations of state agencies. However, the change of scenery hardly seems to have changed West’s ugly behavior. In December of 2016, he shared a Facebook meme about James Mattis, who was Trump's first secretary of Defense, captioned, "Fired by Obama to please the Muslims. Hired by Trump to exterminate them." West also launched a transphobic attack on Pennsylvania Physician General Rachel Levine that same year.
Sessions, who ran the NRCC when West was elected to his only term in the House in 2010, could present the GOP with a different sort of problem candidate. In October 2017, when it was becoming more and more apparent that Trump would be a drag on the GOP ticket the following year, Sessions still made it very clear that he didn't want major GOP outside groups coming to his aid, bragging that he "begged the NRCC, even when I was chairman, 'Keep the hell away from Dallas, Texas.'" He explained, "We need to go in somewhere else, it's up to me to win in Dallas, Texas. It's not up to some other group."
Months later, Sessions told McClatchy that he'd welcome a visit from Trump "with open arms," adding, "Can you invite him for me?" Major outside groups did end up spending plenty to aid him, and even Sessions belatedly came to realize that it might not be a good idea to campaign as a Trump ally. A month after his loss, Sessions also whined about his defeat and seemed shocked―just shocked―that national Democrats had run negative ads against him.
Sessions now tells the National Journal that, because Republicans took serious losses in races across Dallas County, his wide defeat was due to factors that were out of his control. Sessions asked, “Why would they need a new candidate?” but not everyone is convinced. Doug Deason, who serves as finance chair of the Dallas County GOP, publicly said, “I really think we need to encourage Pete not to run and to do something different.” West too faulted Sessions for running a weak campaign that allowed “Allred to define him rather than the other way around.”
● VA-10: No notable Republicans have shown any obvious interest in taking on freshman Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton in a Northern Virginia seat that swung hard against Donald Trump, but Florida Rep. Brian Mast is offering up a name. Mast told Roll Call that his friend, Afghanistan veteran Rob Jones, is “hopefully” considering running. Jones, like Mast, lost his legs in an explosion, and the two got to know each other while recovering.
Republicans held this seat for decades, but it shifted hard to the left from 50-49 Romney to 52-42 Clinton. Republican incumbent Barbara Comstock still held on in 2016, but Wexton ousted her 56-44 two years later. And given what happened during that campaign, national Republicans will likely be cautious about investing again for this district, which is located in the expensive D.C. media market.
Comstock received more financial help from the NRCC than any other candidate in the nation, even though polls consistently (and correctly) showed her badly losing to Wexton—so much so that the top GOP super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, wrote Comstock off for dead months before Election Day. However, then-NRCC chair Steve Stivers insisted Comstock was in a winnable race, going so far as to declare in September, "The last poll I looked at she's winning. I'm not going to cut off somebody who is winning." True to his word, the NRCC did not cut off Comstock, and they kept spending heavily for her well into the last days of the campaign where she did not do any winning.
All that spending proved to be a terrible waste of money at a time that the GOP couldn’t afford it, and that race has become a cautionary tale for Republicans. In December, newly minted NRCC chair Tom Emmer acknowledged he was overwhelmed with complaints from his members about the $5 million that they’d spent here. After that debacle, we’d be surprised if national Republicans sink much money here this cycle, especially since Trump is still likely to be a big liability in this affluent and well-educated suburban seat.
● Where Are They Now?: Michigan authorities recently executed search warrants on 65 current or former officials as part of their investigation into the Flint water poisoning, and former GOP Gov. Rick Snyder was on the list. The Associated Press reports that one warrant signed last month included the complete contents of Snyder’s “state-issued cellphone, iPad and computer hard drive.” No one from Snyder’s former office has been charged.