Drone strikes directed by the Houthi militia movement based in Yemen have knocked out half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity. The BBC puts the loss in capacity, at 5-7 million barrels a day. This can be expected to have a significant impact globally as this would represent over 5% of the world’s regular production.
The Houthi movement has declared responsibility for the attack on Aramco oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, and stated that 10 drones were used in the attack. CNN indicates that following the raid fires raged across facilities at both sides. Those fires have apparently been brought under control, but the extent of the damage and time it will take to bring the processing units back online is not clear. It’s not known if these were military drones, or smaller civilian drones weaponized with incendiary devices. Either way, this attack represents a significant step in the use of drones to strike strategic targets by a non-state actor.
The civil war in Yemen has been an open conflict since 2015, with the current Yemeni government supported by Saudi Arabia and its allies, while the Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah, has allegedly been supported by arms from both Iran and North Korea. Saudi Arabia has had military resources inside Yemen since shortly after the civil war began. The extensive and apparently indiscriminate use of bombing by forces on both sides of the war have led to descriptions of the conflict as a humanitarian disaster. The Saudis have also been accused of “attempted genocide” in their attacks on Houthi areas. The Saudi bombing campaign has killed an estimated 18,000 Yemenis inside the Houthi-controlled region.
The United States has provided weapons to Saudi Arabia, along with logistical and strategic support for their attacks in Yemen. Donald Trump has been vocal about supporting Saudi leader Mohammed bin Salman, and stressed the importance of jobs related to U.S. arms sales to the kingdom, even when bin Salman was connected to the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. The entire conflict in Yemen has often been seen as a proxy fight between the Saudis and Iran, with the United States acting to both support the Saudis and use trade embargoes along with other economic restrictions to limit Iran’s ability to participate.
Iran has officially denied supporting the Houthis, but media reports have indicated that Iranian leadership is in contact with Houthi forces and Iranian weapons have been intercepted in transit to Yemen. In 2017, the United States displayed portions of a missile guidance system thought to be from an Iranian Qiam Ballistic Missile that was used in a attack on a site inside Saudi Arabia.
The Houthi movement has also been accused of multiple violations of human rights, including the use of child soldiers. One U.N. report indicated that child soldiers may make up a third of all Houthi forces.
The long-running conflict has destroyed much of Yemen’s infrastructure and almost all of the ability to produce food locally. In 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million Yemenis are on the brink of starvation.
Oil closed on Friday at just under $55 a barrel. Some estimates are already projecting a $10 rise in the next week.