Poll numbers fly around like the contents from a witch doctor's fanny-pack. A little bit of bone mixed with some eye of salamander brewed for three days in the high-noon heat and voila! The reading. There is no way to know what's accurate. On top of that, there's no way to know that what's accurate today will be accurate tomorrow -- much less in November.
No, what we need to do (if we truly want to gauge Kerry's chances) is listen to the pulse of the Washington press corps. My reasoning behind this has its origins in one of the more consistent human traits...the need to be popular.
The Washington press corps, otherwise known as the media, otherwise known as the intellectual elite are human beings (did you know that?). It took them YEARS of hard work and networking and kissing-ass and moments of bravery to get where they are. Like you and me, they always have their ear to the ground, measuring their steps carefully, filing their stories after much consideration of how the piece will read in public. At their core they want to tell the truth and tell it well so that you and I can know the truth too.
But they also want to be invited to parties.
They want to hob-knob at this Fall's laugh-a-minute fundraiser. They want to clink crystal with Lugar and Franks and laugh about things that you and I would find horrifying. In the final analysis, they have a career to think about.
So, it's my conclusion that the boys and girls who both reflect and dictate public mood are the ones to listen to. At the moment, they smell blood. They're going after Bush on so many levels it makes Hummergate look like an A17 story. Of course, if they want to be invited to this Fall's fundraisers they would do well to cease and desist. Cut the cowboy-manchild a break. Unless of course they think someone else is going to be doing the inviting this Fall...