New Oregon poll, from Riley for KGW. Among LVs, it shows Bush 44%, Kerry 39%, but I have some questions about this poll.
http://www.kgw.com/news/pdf/maypoll_complete.pdf
Bottom line:
Bush: 44%
Kerry: 39%
Nader: 0%
Other: 7%
Undec: 12%
Couple of reasons why I'd be careful with these results:
- Huge swing from other recent polls. The Bush number is comparable to other polls, but the Kerry number is 5-9% lower, and the combined Kerry-Nader total is 9-12% lower than all other polls done in the last couple of months.
- Large number of undecided
- More importantly, huge number of "OTHER". What's that about? Dean supporters? Oregon has its primary Tuesday, maybe they were thinking of that? Perot voters? The "OTHERS" tended to be female, middle-aged, and Independent, for what that's worth
- Slightly odd skew with voting history. THey screened LVs on "voted in >2 of last 4 elections". Not clear what elections they mean. The 4 of 4 voters look comparable to other LV polls (44 Bush, 42 Kerry), but the 2 of 4 really skew it, at 51-33 Bush. Among all households (not just RV, but all) it was 38-34 Kerry.
- Among Independents, opinion was: 42 Kerry, 35 Bush, 10% Other, 11% Undecided.
It's possible these guys have picked up on something the other polls have missed, but my gut reaction is that something funny is going on. That OTHER category especially bothers me -- split it 5%/2% among Kerry/Nader and you've got the same thing the other polls are showing (which is Bush/Kerry in a near tie near 45% each).