Is Bush going to move back to the center and offer some interesting domestic initiatives? Time says (and Drudge has parallel info) that BC04 serve up with a domestic, policy-wonkish agenda designed to appeal to swing voters. Quite a change from the "War President" plus "fire up the base" strategy he had been using. As even BC04 pollster Matt Dowd more or less admits, that strategy hasn't worked as well as hoped.
In particular, Bush's advantage on terrorism has narrowed far more than anyone expected, and that's forcing major rethinks of strategy.
Time: "How Bush Plans To Win"
http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,674761-1,00.html
Time claims that:
The President plans to spend much of the four weeks before his convention, starting Aug. 30, offering a new stump speech, a fresh set of upbeat advertisements and proposals to help people balance work and family, retrain after job loss, prepare for retirement and gain greater control over their financial fortune.
Domestic proposals include:
-- making it easier for businesses to grant flex and comp time (ie, put in extra hours this week and bank up some time off next week)
-- more tuition assistance for community college students
-- a follow on to No Child Left Behind aimed at improving high schools (that sounds like a loser -- people have NOT liked NCLB as they've seen it in action)
-- other reforms to improve health insurance, though stressing "personal choice and accountability"
In addition, Drudge reports that there may be a dramatic proposal to eliminate the IRS and replace the current tax system with a national sales tax or flat tax. I have doubts, I think Drudge is too quick to equate "Hastert says" with "Bush will". But if they do offer a VAT, well, good to see the GOP is looking to France for advice on tax policy, eh?
Campaign Tone
Time suggests they will try to sound moderate and upbeat, while still attacking Kerry/Edwards. If Time is right, it does sound like a more positive tone overall than some of the other reports this weekend.
On the 9/11 commission, too, the strategy supposedly will be to quickly implement recommendations, and not push back against them. This is giving real heartburn to some of the policy types (Cheney? Rumsfeld?) but supposedly that's the marching orders from the White House.
And there was this nugget:
In the run-up to the G.O.P. Convention, Bush will spend so much time with his former bitter primary rival John McCain, the party's moderate icon, that it may very well look as if Bush is running with the wrong white-haired, balding guy. McCain is scheduled to stump by himself for Bush in Florida next week and then be joined by the candidate for a few days. Before the convention, the two are to spend still more time together.
My take: This is probably a reasonably smart strategy for Bush. These sorts of small beer initiatives wouldn't be enough if the economy were in a truly awful state, like 1992 or 1980, but might well be useful with white-collar suburbanite types who've been turned off by Iraq and the right-wing social policy from Bush. Eliminating the IRS certainly has a nice ring to it, especially if they keep vague enough about what might replace it (which almost certainly will be a worse deal for the middle class).
Of course, this is a big shift from the Rovian base-centered approach, so maybe Time is wrong, or maybe they really are that shaken up at BC04