But only if Democrats don't stop with the poll-induced depression, allow reason to beat out emotion, and VOTE! Here's my take on the state of affairs....I have not linked to originial source material for all this, we've read all this before. I'm just trying to connect the dots for the nervous Nellie's out there:
- George Bush had 3.4 million votes fewer than his challengers in 2000, this in a year when there was little interest in the election and the candidates were portrayed as the flip side of the same coin.
- The only reason Nader is getting on state ballots is because Republicans are putting him there. Not Democrats, not Nader supporters, Republicans. Unless the Republicans who got him on the ballot actually go ahead and vote for him in November (and we have questioned the intelligence of Republicans on this site before), Nader will get far fewer votes than he got in 2000 (or at the very least he'll pull off the aforementioned unclear-on-the-concept Republicans).
- Democrats are virtually united (at least for Democrats) in their desire to boot Bush. There is little likelihood that Democrats will jump ship in large numbers in November. Democrats have rarely shown such unanimity in any election.
- Independents appear to be leaning Kerry in large numbers. You have to figure a Republican is going to proudly register as a Republican, no matter what. Independents appear to be disaffected Democrats more than anything else. Independents have overtaken Republicans in voter registration in a Harris poll I read recently (33% D, 29% R, 31% I)
- Voter registration continues to defy expectations. After a slight increase in Republican registration after 9/11, Democrats are back to their historic advantage in registration numbers. I read on a diary this morning that registration in Durham, North Carolina alone favors Democrats by 6:1 or more.
- Voter turnout for the primaries was phenomenal. Turnout in some states was 3 times normal. 5000 Republicans in New Hampshire alone wrote in a Democrats' name on their Republican primary ballots.
- Three open House seats, 2 in very conservative districts, were taken by Democrats so far this year.
- Polls run by the SCLM consistently oversample Republicans and insist Kerry is in trouble. Fox, oddly enough, sees Kerry ahead or close to even. I'm just throwing out a possibility but you have to wonder, does Fox show the race close in order to scare Republicans to polls? Does ABC hope to spur Democrats with the same sort of reverse psychology? Just wondering.....
- Bush has lost significant support among gays, Arab Americans, younger Cuban Americans, moderate Republicans, military families (if not military personnel themselves) and the elderly. Bush has gained support among......who? Name one large group of voters who can close the 3.4 million vote gap plus those Bush has lost since. Who are these people? Evangelicals alone won't cut it.
When things don't look good, set emotion aside and rely on reason. All these ridiculous polls with their suspect methods, skewed sample population and spin-filled interpretation are irrelevant at this point in time. You don't know how the questions were asked or how the answer was teased out of a respondent. You don't know if lukewarm support is presented to the public as rock solid. These polls are asking popularity contest questions but they miss the forest for the trees. It's not lost on the public, I believe, that something has seriously gone off the rails since 2000. From a suspect election to corporate malfeasance to unnecessary wars to a White House that cares more about the politics of fear than policy, this is not our America.
Revelations about Bush's military record are just a first salvo on the little man's character. There is NO good news coming down the pike for this guy. Iraq is as good as lost if I'm hearing things right in the news. The economy may be doing OK according to the ruling class but it's not trickling down to the rest of us. The Cheney scare tactics will likely harden the resolve of Democrats to get him out of office. For once, George Bush has to run on his record in the debates. There's a reason he's running away from this obligation.
You have only your reason and your own observations in your community. I personally know no Democrats planning to vote Bush in November, but I do know a few Republicans planning to sit this election out if not actively vote for Kerry. The media may be invested in pandering to Bush under threat of losing access (as if they have it now). They missed the groundswell of the Republican revolution in 1994 right up until election day. I think the chances are good that these hacks are missing what's happening in 2004 as well.
Bush wins if voter turnout is suppressed (negative campaigns accomplish this) or if he cheats (can anyone say Diebold?). There are 2 very long months until this election, an eternity in today's world. Democrats win when Democrats vote. Simple as that.