We've killed about 1 of every 1692 Iraqis in this war based on their
population as of July, 2004.
If Americans were dying at the same rate, we would have lost 173,184 in the same time frame.
Iraq has a land area of about 167,000 square miles. Before Bush's War began, about 2/3's of the land was fairly well controlled by the No-Fly Zones. They covered around 111,000 square miles of that area, leaving 56,000 in the middle. That is the area that we've effectively been fighting over for more than a year and a half.
Rumsfeld recently stated something to the effect that a free election in 3/4's to 4/5's of Iraq could be seen as a triumph. Lets look a bit closer at that.
"Hey, no election's gonna perfect," says the proud Republican talking head.
From his own numbers, the elections would be "successful" if they were to cover anywhere from 125,250 to 133,600 square miles of Iraqi territory.
As I said above, before the war, there were ~56,000(33%)sq.miles uncontrolled. There are now between 33,400(20%)and 41,750(25%) where even Rumsfeld says elections are still not possible. That means we have gained between 14,250(8%)and 22,600(13%)sq.miles of territory overall.
Now lets look at the number of deaths suffered during this "Accomplished Mission." The United States has lost more than 1100 troops, while there have been 1240 'coalition' deaths total. The Iraqis have cleared 15000 civilian and military deaths, but we wont ever be sure of that number and it is likely a low estimate.
In the best case scenario (80% control), the US is losing about 1 soldier for each 20 sq.miles conquered, the coalition is losing 1 per 18 sq.miles, and Iraqis are losing 1 for every 1.5 sq.miles. In the worst case scenario (75% control), the US is losing 1 per 13 sq.miles, the coalition 1 per 11.5 sq.miles, and the Iraqis 1 per 0.95 sq.miles. Lets project that out.
If 20% of Iraqi territory remains out of control, controlling it at the rate we are going, the US will lose an additional 1670, the coalition another 1856, and the Iraqis another 22,267. If the area uncontrolled is 25%, then the US stands to lose an additional 2088, the coalition 2319, and the Iraqis another 43,947. These numbers are IN ADDITION to those already lost. Now, lets get some totals out of all of this.
Best case, the US loses a grand total of 2770, the coalition loses 3096, and the Iraqis lose 37267. Total deaths = 40,363 (US included in coalition). Worst case, the US loses 3188, the coalition 3559, and the Iraqis a whopping 58,947. Total deaths = 62,506.
Finally, at the end of this all, under these projections, Bush will have killed 1 human being for every 0.9 to, at best, 1.4 sq.miles of Iraqi territory.
I know this is imperfect math, but the figures are striking. Considering how the pace of take-over has slowed and the rate of insurgent attacks has increased, I wonder if these numbers wont turn out to be gross UNDERESTIMATES.