With the Presidential campaigns winding down, many people are wondering why Senator Kerry never made a push for Missouri's 11 electoral votes. The last three polls, excluding Zogby's final poll, had Bush up by 3%, 4% and 5%. In each poll the
Undecideds were 7%, 6% and 6%. The latest Zogby poll (November 1)has Bush up by 4.2%.
Closely contested and heated state races portend a large voter turnout. While here for GOTV, I have observed tremendous excitement everywhere over both the state races and the Presidential race. I have never seen such energetic Democratic activity in the Republican base of Southwest Missouri.
Kerry is within striking distance in all the recent polls. The anecdotal evidence is strong for a Kerry win in Missouri. A huge voter turnout will turn Missouri blue.
I believe that just one campaign appearance by Senator Kerry in the closing days in St. Louis could have helped deliver the state to Kerry. It would also have put Claire McCaskill over the top in her
dead-even race to keep the Governor's seat in Democratic control. Or a trip by Edwards to St. Louis would have probably done the trick. As it is, we will have to make do with GOTV efforts ... which are considerable.
I've been in Missouri for 10 days working on GOTV. I decided to come to Missouri for several reasons. Having worked in Missouri at one time, I am very familiar with Missouri politics. Also, I have family who live there. And the most important reason I decided to come to Missouri was that I've always thought that Missouri was winnable. Although Missouri tends to lean slightly Republican in Presidential elections now, Democrats consistently win state-wide offices. In fact, Democrats are leading their Republican opponents in most of the state races. Part of the reason why Missouri is leaning more Republican is that the very conservative Southwestern Missouri region, the base of the Republican Party, has been growing. Another reason can be found in the more Democratic areas of the state where conservative Democrats are increasingly voting on values instead of the more traditional economic issues. Many old-time Democrats now identify more with the culturally conservative Republican Party than they do with the Democratic Party at the national level. However, there is strong anecdotal evidence that Kerry/Edwards is strong in Missouri, in spite of the Republican advantages.
The Anecdotal Evidence. The "Undecideds."
A lot of people wonder how anyone could still be undecided at this late date. After working GOTV, I've ran across these people and it's not that they have no clue who to vote for ... it's that they are conflicted about whom to vote for. I suspect that some of these "undecideds" are people like the 93 year old life-time Republican I met who couldn't make up her mind who to vote for. She's a retired schoolteacher and principal. She's never voted for a Democrat for President before. She doesn't like how terribly poor things are going in Iraq. She doesn't like Bush's economic policies since they seem to tilt to the wealthy and don't do enough for the middle-class. She thinks the Prescription Drug Benefit was a boon to the Pharma companies. She's worried that privatizing Social Security will be the straw that breaks the camel's back. She worries that Bush probably misled the nation about Iraq in the first place. And as a devout Christian, she just doesn't think Bush is honest and trustworthy anymore. She doesn't really want to vote for him. But she doesn't know if she can vote for Kerry b/c he's a liberal Democrat from the Northeast. And she doesn't like his position on abortion.
There's the 80 year old Conservative Democrat who can't make up her mind. She doesn't like Kerry's liberal social positions. But she doesn't like Bush's economic policies. And she really doesn't like this war in Iraq. She worries that her grandson could be drafted. As a regular Church-goer and Christian, she's conflicted about voting on her values or voting on the war and economics. She's thinking of just not voting for President but will vote for most of the Democrats on the state ticket. She really likes a lot of them.
Then there's the 53-year old Small Business Owner who is a Republican who votes on economics and foreign policy issues. She doesn't like Bush's economic policies, she's very concerned about healthcare insurance costs, she's worried about a stagnant economy, she doesn't like the war in Iraq but she supports Bush's war on terror. She thinks Bush is a strong leader but she worries that he doesn't hold people accountable for their mistakes. She thinks the Bush administration has lost touch with the little guy and small business owners. But, she doesn't like Kerry personally. She worries he'll raise her taxes. She doesn't trust his healthcare plan .. she's afraid it will be "big government". She's really worried about this idea of a pre-emptive foreign policy. She's afraid Bush may bankrupt the nation with unending war. She doesn't want to vote for Bush but she can't quite bring herself to vote for Kerry.
The Anecdotal Evidence. Republicans for Kerry.
I've been pleasantly surprised as I've run across these people every day. There's the family in which both parents are teachers who are angry about how Bush has not properly funded "No Child Left Behind." They're very much against the war in Iraq. They support the war on terror but think that it has been mismanaged. They call Bush inept .. the worst Republican president ever. And this is the first time they will vote for a Democrat for President.
There's the 70-something retiree who thinks Bush is a liar and even worst .. incompetent.
There's the Catholic retiree and his wife who have voted values in the past but think that Bush is no real Christian since he lied about the Iraq War. They also don't want their grandsons to be drafted. They think Bush has mismanaged the economy and they worry about their pension funds.
The Anecdotal Evidence. Democrats for Bush
So far, I've only run across one Democrat family that is voting for Bush. They're Catholics who are voting first on values and then on the war on terror. They strongly support Bush as a godly man who can keep the nation safe. They despise Kerry's position on abortion. They think he's just another Northeastern Liberal who is weak on foreign policy. They can't understand how any Catholic could vote for Kerry. Especially since Bush was chosen by God to lead this country through this war on terror.
Swaying Minds and Hearts
So, how to sway the minds of the few "undecideds"? The wonderful and engaging retired teacher and principal will be going to the polls tomorrow and voting for Kerry/Edwards ... her first Presidential vote for a Democrat. What swayed her mind? I could tell she didn't want to vote for Bush and that she just needed to know that it was OK to vote for Kerry. I told her about my very Republican family who are mostly all voting for Kerry. And I told her about my very Republican mother who was voting for Kerry this time ... her first vote for a Democrat for President in the 50 years she's been voting. But the secret weapon was no doubt my mother talking to her.
The conservative Democrat made up her mind before I left her house that day. I just told her how important it was that we make a change. We discussed how the country was headed in the wrong direction and how Senator Kerry could put the country back on the right track. The clincher may have been ... how can Bush fix things when he can't even acknowledge things are on the wrong track.
The small business owner is still conflicted. My mother called her tonight. She says that she's leaning Kerry but she hasn't committed yet. Her husband has made up his mind and he's voting for Kerry. Her daughters and their husbands are voting for Kerry too.
And what about those "values" voters? It's a time management and effectiveness issue. I say "thank you" and get away as quickly as possible. I learned this after the first day. Move on quickly to more fertile ground.
Summary
It's been a grueling, exhausting, challenging and interesting past two weeks. I've been fortunate to meet lots of great people. If I had to choose one observation for the "take-away" from this experience .. it's that the nation is indeed very polarized. There is great passion on both sides. Most minds seem to already have been made up early on. So, as best as I can tell, the polls have been right. There have been few people to sway.
I learned very quickly that there is no point in wasting time chatting with the "values" voters. They are rock solid for Bush. Any time spent with them is time you don't have for finding the undecided and the Kerry voters who need a push to get to the polls or simply .. a ride on election day.
The fault line in this election is over "values" as defined by the Republicans. For those people who are voting their "values", they need not look any further than that. In other words, it doesn't seem to matter how well the economy is doing or how well the war in Iraq is going. The mere fact that Bush is "leading based on principle" is simply enough for these voters. Well, that, and the fact that he is chosen by God to lead this nation through a time of great peril. And that only Bush can lead us.
So, what's the evidence for these observations? I've been very surprised by how many people tout the website Ivotevalues. And there have been more than a few people that have told me that they'll pray for me. And then there's one of my own relatives who is working for the Bush side who sent me an e-mail assailing me for being a Catholic and voting for that "baby killer". And yes, she also directed me to that website Ivotevalues. So, the "values" fault line is for real ... like a great divide ... that threatens to cleave the nation into two parts. And I'm not sure what to do about it. After the election, I'll have more time to think. Right now, it's GOTV ... GOTV ... GOTV. There's no turning back. We have to take back this country!