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From the diaries -- kos)
Polls will begin closing at 6pm EST (3pm PST), and this diary looks at the first eleven states which have their polls closed by 7:30pm EST. What should one look for to signal a likely Kerry victory? For many states, following the results from the news media probably suffices. For the key states of Ohio and Florida, however, links are provided to allow one to get a more in-depth understanding of the votes reported.
In INDIANA and KENTUCKY some of the polls close at 6pm, some at 7pm EST. Both states should immediately be called for Bush. If Kerry polls 45% in these states one can be optimistic - as he is running well ahead of Gore2000.
At 7pm EST polls close in five more states. VERMONT may be the only state called immediately (Kerry). Hopefully both GEORGIA and SOUTH CAROLINA will be too close to call. While both are likely Bush states, 46-47% of the vote would be a reason for optimism. If VIRGINIA is close and Kerry has at least 50% of the early raw vote, things are looking good.
Finally, there is FLORIDA. Most of the states polls close at 7pm. Networks will be very leery of calling Florida before a significant portion of the actual returns are reported. The raw vote totals will be hard to decipher without knowledge of how the largest counties are reporting.
Where to look for early returns from Florida:
The State of Florida website. Individual county websites may, however, have their returns posted sooner. The percentages and vote margins cited below would suggest a Kerry win by over 200,000. Lesser values would obviously indicate a very tight race.
Miami-Dade County
Kerry 56%, winning margin of 95,000.
Broward County (Fort Lauderdale)
Kerry 71%, winning margin of 325,000.
Orange County (Orlando)
Kerry 55%, winning margin of 41,000.
Pinellas County (St. Petersburg)
Kerry 55%, winning margin of 42,000.
Hillsborough County (Tampa)
Kerry 50%, even.
Duval County (Jacksonville)
Kerry 47%, losing margin (-24,000).
Palm Beach County (West Palm Beach)
Kerry 68%, winning margin of 170,000.
Three states have polls closing at 7:30pm EST. Hopefully NORTH CAROLINA and WEST VIRGINIA will be close and not called for Bush. If Kerry is near 50% in the raw vote total, he should have a chance in these two states. The polls in OHIO also close at this time, though I would expect results to be delayed in the large cities as those standing in line to vote are accommodated after 7:30pm. The following percentages and vote margins are necessary to have a chance in Ohio - and would approximately negate the Bush margin that was seen in the other counties from 2000. While no guarantee, I am assuming if Kerry does this well in the metro areas, the rest of the state will also trend slightly more Democratic, creating a Kerry win in Ohio.
State of Ohio
Cuyahoga County (Cleveland)
68% Kerry, winning margin of 235,000
Franklin County (Columbus)
53% Kerry, winning margin of 29,000
Hamilton County (Cincinnati)
47% Kerry, losing margin (-26,000)
Lucas County (Toledo)
63% Kerry, winning margin 53,000
Summit County (Akron)
59% Kerry, winning margin 46,000
Montgomery County (Dayton)
54% Kerry, winning margin 22,000
Please recommend this diary if you think people would find it helpful in viewing early returns.