There is no way that Bush can do anything other than crash and burn in this second term.
I don't think we had the wrong message or the wrong strategy. Some battles simply aren't winnable.
We need to take the long view. Cliche or not, it really is sometimes best to lose the battle in order to win the war.
I would have preferred to win this election, cross our fingers, and hope that Kerry could pull us out of our economic and military mess before 2008, when the neocons would have been back to blame him for everything and get themselves another eight years. But even if we had won, that kind of success was a long shot.
There is no way that Bush can do anything other than crash and burn in this second term. That is true because of the multiple crises he has created, the categorical staements he has made (like "no draft"), the pending indictments and reports, the mediocrity of his team, and not least the structure of his personality. This presidency will self-destruct. Spectacularly. It is impossible to take joy in what will be a couple of painful trainwrecks for the country (Iraq and our exporting of prosperity), wrecks that may take decades to repair. But it is possible to take some measure of consolation because they will also destroy neoconservatism beyond all rehabilitation.
On top of this, there will inevitably be another terror attack in the US, the one Bush was elected to avert.
That's why I say there wasn't that much wrong with our message or our positioning. OK, we got maneuvered into the gay union issue, but that's over now. The amendments are passed or will pass, and by 2008 the whole hullabaloo will be a quaint memory. And a more camera-friendly, plain-spoken, tough-Joe candidate could well have brought it home for us. And we tried maximizing the turnout of our wingiest liberal base, and it didn't work. Some have said that passionate liberalism is our greatest strength, but I think our greatest strength is our commitment to the commonsense, moderate, pro-middle-class, pro-working-class agenda.
That's really the message Kerry ran with. And I think it will be the winning message in 2008. But the vast majority of Bush supporters weren't ready yet to be reached by reality or persuasion. It will take time to overcome the brainwashing they've been undergoing since, well, pretty much since Reagan. After all, a lot of these people never used to vote at all. They are political naifs. But in 2008 they will be more receptive, once more of them have lost jobs and health insurance and relatives in Iraq. Our job is to stay on this message (with Air America's help) as the disconnect between what Bush voters thought they were getting and what they're actually getting continues to grow. There will be a tipping point and we can be ready.
Remember, this second term is the first time in Dubya's life that he has ever had to clean up his own mess. When he falls on his face, there will no longer be the least possibility of pinning the blame elsewhere. His entire movement now has enough rope with which to hang themselves until dead. We can make 2008 a historic landslide.
My attitude would be different if I truly believed Kerry could have averted the trainwrecks. But at this point, I doubt that anybody could have done so, at least in Iraq.
Meanwhile the moderates in the Republican party are going to be on the receiving end of a lot of punishment and humiliation. If we play this right, we could -- without changing the principles Kerry was esposing -- make the Democratic party the new home of commonsense moderation, attracting moderates away from the Republicans. It would begin with ad hoc, issue-specific coalitions but be played to leave the Republicans with nothing but the neocons and evangelicals who always were piggy-backing on the moderate core.