Short Fix: In Posts of Christmas Past, I have discussed Iran as a target of Republican aggression.
With what appears to be the rise of, well, the Iranian version of George W. Bush, the game may turn out to be far dicier.
The Iranians have lots of mischief to choose from, if they choose a Rovian sort of policy.
And they still have a lot of big countries at their back...so long as they play it straight.
Targets of Opportunity
The Iranians have a particular ax to grind with the smaller Gulf states that have played host to American forces over the years, Bahrain and Qatar tops on the list; these countries would be the first on their list -- countries that could and would be easily infliltrated and attacked, and possibly turned.
Elsewhere in the Arabian peninsula, things do not get much better; while Arabs and Persians are ancient enemies, a rivalry that Islam has done little to reconcile, there are many Arabs who do not appreciate their American-backed rulers in Yemen, Oman and, you guessed it, Iraq.
A surprising range of countries fall into the crosshairs, countries both Islamic (and therefore more receptive to Iranian intrigues) and weak enough to be vulnerable to such projects: Libya, Lebanon, Cyprus, Bosnia, Albania, Palestine, Kuwait, Brunei, Benin, Djibouti, Comoros, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Western Sahara, Tanzania, Niger, Mauritania, Kyrgyzstan, Bangladesh, Eritrea, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, Somalia, Kenya, the Philippines, Afghanistan, Sudan, and Ethiopia.
"Vulnerable", of course, runs either of two ways -- as targets, or as sites for pro-Iranian insurgencies, and possibles coups d'etat.
It would be relatively easily for the Iranians to stir up trouble in these locations, and signal that they have this capability.
And all at arm's length.
More ambitious projects
With some further exertion, and more risk, insurgencies and/or agents provocateurs acting within the United Arab Emirates, Armenia, Serbia, Jordan and Syria, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, Nigeria, and Indonesia could be activated.
Big Plays
Getting back in the business of exporting Islamist Revolution; Algeria is a prime target for same.
Making a lie into fact, and hooking up with North Korea.
Sending a token expeditionary force to Venezuela.
Underwriting a new intifada, with vastly superior infrastructure and armaments, in the Holy Land.
The Crazy Move
Underwriting a civil war in Saudi Arabia.
Silent Partners
Basically, the big three on the Asian continent -- China, Indian and Russia -- are willing to look the other way so long as Iran does not attempt to export Islamic revolution into (a) Central Asia, (b) East Asia and (c) the Indian Subcontinent.
The Iranians have designs on increasing their influence in Central Asia and in the Indian Subcontinent, but have succeeded with trade where not all the legions of all the empires past and present have made a scratch.
But as noted above, they may well change to more uncompromising tactics, and as another such change of regime elsewhere revealed -- that's a quick way to anger and alienate old friends.