Daily Kos

Arnebeck Lawsuit: Summary, Explanation

Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 12:16:28 PM PDT

Arnebeck's lawsuit is released and posted at:
http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush1.pdf
http://joeorgren.com/MossvBush2.pdf

Thanks to pronin2 and the people at DU for the links.

I skimmed through the 93 page lawsuit challenging the election and have my notes below the fold, for those who do not have the time or desire to read through the whole thing.

The second document is an injuction, asking that the court enjoin the Electors from casting their votes (too late!), or from transmitting those votes.  The Memorandum in Support of that motion is pretty interesting, and I encourage everyone to glimpse at it.

Pardon the many typos and poor grammar... :)
ELECTION IRREGULARITIES, FRAUD

*    Exit polls fixed to conform to vote totals
*    Screenshots of the CNN exit polls pre-fixing
*    999/10000 chance of Ohio exit poll not based on random sampling or election itself was "dishonest".  Goes on to state that chance of experienced pollster not doing a random sample is "vanishingly small"
*    Cites Freeman article
*    Repeats phrase "clear and convincing evidence of fraud".  
*    "If there were innocent errors involved, one would expect to see shifts in favor of both Bush and Kerry."
*    "the vote fraud in connection with the national vote may also mean that the national exit poll is the most accurate representation of the votes actually cast.  This means that candidate Bush did not actually win a "mandate" of 3.5 million votes, but actually lost the national vote by a significant margin to John Kerry."
*    Plan to steal the election was "designed and/or implemented by Bush, Cheney, and Rove acting though as yet unidentified agents..."
*    Part of the plan was to reduce or eliminate the amount of time the fraudulent results would be subject to serious scrutiny.  Andrew Card came out in the early morning, made a "nervous and shaky" claim about Ohio victory to end inquiry into exit polls.
*    "unconstitutional discrimination served as a smokescreen to distract attention away from vote fraud."
*    Plaintiffs allege that Bush, Cheney, Rove, and those acting on their behalf used various means to change fraudulently the legitimate results of the election....
*    There very various means, Blackwell "perpetrated" or "acquiesced in" through abuse of power and public trust.
*    "Traditionally easily detectable means were one of the principal methods of election fraud."  Cites:  unlawful ballots (ballot-box stuffing), lawful ballots destroyed (spoiling Kerry ballots, destroying them)
*    Also, "low technology traditional form of election fraud" occurred in Trumbell County. Discuss Lange study and fraudulent absentee ballots for Bush there.
*    Blackwell prevents public inspection of poll books in violation of Ohio law, "may have caused such violations in every board of elections in the state"
*    Each violation is considered fraud under Ohio law.
*    Goes on to discuss fraud in the machines.  First, says Bush operatives didn't need direct access.  Directs court to www.chuckherrin.com/hackthevote.htm
*    Next, he talks about actually manipulating the machines through "unauthorized and so far undetected operating instructions into the software."
*    Talks about the programs on the DRE machines, how some may have been self-deleting.
*    Next, goes back to Blackwell fraud, cites law that makes prohibiting inspection of records a crime, if convicting, must be removed from his position.
*    Results released by Blackwell on December 6th, "due to error, fraud, or mistake" thousands of votes were taken from Kerry and placed in Bush's column.  Makes a list of each county, totals 130,656 votes which were cast by voters for Kerry but reported for Bush.
*    Does the math, Kerry won Ohio by at least 142, 537 votes.
*    Asks the court to (1)Add 130,656 votes to Kerry ticket; (2) Subtract 130,656 votes from Bush ticket; (3) Issue certificates of election to Electoral College electors representing the Kerry ticket.
*    Next, he goes into the votes taken from Connelly and were "through fraud, mistake, or error" given to Moyer.  
*    Asks for basically the same relief as for presidential election.

14th AMENDMENT CLAIMS
*    Auglaize County: voting machine errors, unauthorized access to machines by ES&S employee Joe McGinnis.
*    Cuyahoga:  BoE "botched" registration of 10,000 voters, preventing them from voting.
*    Cuyahoga County:  Precinct 4F cast more votes for Petrouka, a "ultra-conservative" "anti-immigrant" party than for Kerry. 4N also had more results for 3rd party.  Alleges it is because of "fraud, error, or mistake."
*    Cuyahoga County: "effective denial of the right to cast a provisional ballot."  8,099 provisional ballots (1/3 of those cast) were improperly ruled as "invalid" because of voting in wrong precinct or allegedly unregistered.  
*    Cuyahoga/Franklin County:  absentee ballot arrows did NOT match up with candidate names.
*    Cuyahoga County/Franklin County: voters received calls to go to wrong polling place.
Franklin County: discriminatory assigning of more voting machines to white areas than black areas. Had the "effect, if not intent, of discriminating against African-American voters."  Same alleged in Knox, Hamilton, Lucas.
*    Hamilton county: Some absentee ballots did not list Kerry/Edwards.
*    Hamilton County:  Republican precinct judge was asking everyone for address and "being a jerk about it."
*    Jefferson County:  voters were challenged, did not know it, could not rebut challenge.  Names were merely printed in a "nearly unreadable list in the local newspaper."
*    Lake County:  bogus BoE letter saying those registered through DNC/NAACP can't vote.
*    Lucas County: Machines broke down throughout the day. BoE director said "the Diebold optical scan machines jammed during testing in the weeks before the election."
*    Mahoning County:  machine registered negative 25 Million votes.
*    Mahoning County:  20-30 ES&S machines needed to be recalibrated after votes were being switched for opponent.
*    Mahoning County: dozen machines needed to be "reset because they essentially froze"
*    Mercer County: errors, lots of people didn't vote for president.
Miami County: "highly suspect and improbable 98.5% turnout."  Suspicious that when last 18,615 votes came in, candidate percentages were the same.  
*    Montgomery County: Two precincts had 25% presidential undervote.  Average for the county was 2% undervote.
*    Sandusky county:  overvote when worker inserted disk with votes twice into tabulator.  In same county, some ballots counted twice.
*    Trumbell County:  A woman found someone already voted in her name, with forged signature, when she went to vote.  They let her vote.  Again.
*    Warren County:  Irregularities in counting of ballots during lockdown.
*    Across the board:  Lots of "Votehopping"- picked Kerry on screen, vote "hopped" to Bush.

Prayer for Relief:
*    Court sets a hearing to determine number of irregular votes.
*    Certificates of Election of Bush electors be CANCELLED by operation of law set forth in R.C. Section 3515.14, or that the results of the entire election be set aside pursuant to same statute.

While many reading the complaint will think "well, we knew all THAT" or "that's not enough, the case will be thrown out", let me remind you that to plead a case in Federal Court, all that is required to file a complaint is notice pleading, which doesn't require that you set forth all the evidence you have; rather, all that is required is "a short and plain statement of the claim showing that the pleader is entitled to relief."  A complaint can be two or three sentences and (theoreticaly) be sufficient to withstand a motion to dismiss.  The purpose of a complaint is not to convince the court of your case.  It is to state a claim, and to put the Defendant on notice of what you are accusing them of, and what remedy you are seeking from the court.

That being said, the Federal Rules of Civil Procedure do require that if you are pleading fraud, as is the case here, you are required to plead that with "particularity."  Basically, you have to allege the "who, what,where, and when" of the fraud.  Reading through this complaint, I think it is strong enough to survive a motion to dismiss in that regard.

This complaint is just the foot in the door.  Much, much more detailed and compelling evidence will be provided as the case proceeds.

What caught my eye is that Arnebeck, et. al. are asking the court to cancel Ohio's electoral votes for Bush pursuant to 3515.13.  For an overview of that section of Ohio law, click here  I thought this section of that discussion was particularly interesting:

Revised Code 3515.16, entitled "Testimony in supreme court," further clouds the issue. It provides that in an election contest "in the supreme court," all testimony shall be in the form of depositions. R.C. 3515.16. The contestor has 20 days from the petition filing to take and file his testimony unless "further time is allowed by the court or judge hearing the contest." The contestee has 20 days from the expiration of the contestor's time. 25  Revised Code 3515.16 further provides that: "[t]he court may render such judgments and make such orders as the law and facts warrant, including judgment of ouster and induction, and the judgment of the supreme court shall be decisive of the contest." R.C. 3515.16.

Here is a fun-to-scroll-through PowerPoint presentation  from Michael  I.  Shamos from the Institute for Software Research International at Carnegie Mellon University.  While some of it is general election information, he does cite various parts of the Ohio Revised Code.  Apparently, it is possible to overturn the Elector's vote to match the will of the people if the irregularites are enough to overcome the margin of victory.

All in all, I am pleased with the filing of the complaint.  The team of lawyers put a lot of effort into researching and crunching the numbers.  I look forward to how the case plays out in court.

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Permalink | 100 comments

  •  Shouldn't this also (none / 0)

    give more grounds for discovery? I know the public records are supposed to be kept public, but now he should be able to get phone records, etc.
    •  media alert! (none / 0)

      A diary about this wouldn't be long enough, so I'm adding a note to diaries about election irregularities:

      My friend's husband heard Hannity & Colmes say on the radio this evening that FOX will be covering the Ohio recount issue tonight. Guess it will be on their show. Finally hits the MSM, but I'm not too optimistic about what FOX will have to say.

  •  Thanks for a great summary n/t (none / 0)

  •  In the part with the county by county numbers (none / 1)

    that should be added or subtracted to/from kerry/bush, I couldn't figure out how they came up with such exact numbers. Is this a statistical extrapolation? or do they have somehting else like actual counted votes?
  •  Thanks for the insight (none / 0)

    Please keep us updated!  There is another diary on this that I think may have scrolled away.  I think this is very important and we should keep trying to get the word out.
  •  I've been waiting for this diary. (none / 0)

    Many Thanks.  Let's see what they have up their sleeve.  We need a serious, investigated, well presented argument that even biased red-staters will look at and think, "that ain't right."
  •  So was naming Moyer a deliberate tactic.... (none / 0)

    to force him to recuse himself? As I understand it, election challenges are heard by the Chief Justice, Moyer. Since he must now recuse himself, who gets it? As far as I can tell there is only one Democrat left on the court (Resnick) but she has the longest tenure. Will the case go to her then?

    That may be our only chance for not having the case thrown out based on lack of jurisdiction. After all, only God himself can judge Dear Leader.

    •  Yes, by law, he has to recuse himself: (none / 1)

      Under R.C. § 3515.08

      In the case of an office to be filled or an issue to be determined by the voters of the entire state, or for the offices of members of congress...said contest shall be heard and determined by the chief justice of the supreme court or a justice of the supreme court assigned for that purpose by the chief justice; except that in a contest for the office of chief justice of the supreme court, such contest shall be heard by a justice of such court designated by the governor.

      So, if this law applies, it wouldn't necessarily go to the justice with the longest tenure.  It would be whomever Governor Taft (R) decides.  

      Hopefully, Taft will refrain from designating some of the more partisan members of the Court.  Taft has been under a lot of pressure with this case.  A good sign though is that he agreed with that ruling that let observers into the polling places. He seems like a guy that would want to let the judical process take it's course.

      I only read the Constitution for the Articles.

      by georgia10 on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 04:14:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Too bad (none / 0)

        There is no way he'll pick Resnick. But since three of the other justices were also on the ballot he may be limited to just three choices. That narrows it to Maureen O'Connor or Evelyn Stratton. O'Connor was Taft's Lieutenant Governor so I bet that is his choice.
  •  This is getting very scary: (4.00 / 5)

    Katrina Summers testified for Cliff Arnebeck.  This is what happened next (link)


    Each encouraging word is like a block of strength right now. Last night I was returning from Columbus and was scared out of my mind. First I've been getting calls from a man that has been able to tell me each and every place I've been or roads I've been traveling on (a group of 3 other women heard this while driving me to meet Jesse Jackson and Cliff Arnebeck last night, having the call on speaker). Then while driving back I was ran off the road by two dark blue Suburbans(?), bigger than 4 runners anyway, with dark tinted windows. They came up behind me with their brights on and then one came to the side of me and ran me into the ditch off I-70. I saw as they sped away that one had a Maryland license plate, but in the heat of it all I couldn't get the plate number or even see the plate of the other one. It's becoming apparent to me that someone is not liking what I'm doing. So thank you much cause I truly need the encouraging words.

    Katrina Sumner


  •  psssttt: It's "Arnebeck" (none / 0)

    And, where's the tip jar - you deserve one for the grunt work!

    (I tried to do a quick summary in answer to a question in the earlier post, but yours is so good - I shouldn't have bothered.)

    Big thank you!

    "The first duty of government is to protect the powerless against the powerful."
    Code of Hammurabi, 1700 B.C.
    www.caringbridge.org/visit/brittany

    by CodeTalker on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 01:38:52 PM PDT

    •  Typo fixed :) (4.00 / 30)

      As for tip jars...I wish Conyers had a tip jar for all the magificent work he's put in for us and for democracy...not enough "4"s in the world for that man.

      If you haven't all ready, I urge everyone to go here and shoot him an email asking for full hearings on this.  He needs 1 Million emails...

      I only read the Constitution for the Articles.

      by georgia10 on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 01:46:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Post this as widely as Possible! (none / 0)

    I am posting this link to the West Georgia Democrats group.
    This is an excellent summation of the manner in which the election fraud occured.

    "AMERICA DID NOT INVENT HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN RIGHTS INVENTED AMERICA"

    by michealallison on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 01:39:08 PM PDT

  •  This is the best one: (none / 0)

    "Hamilton County:  Republican precinct judge was asking everyone for address and "being a jerk about it." "

    Bush/Cheney - in your guts, you know they're nuts.

    by Lufah on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 01:44:49 PM PDT

  •  Help is needed, BTW (none / 0)


    We're short people for data entry of county per-precinct data and other such stuff.

    Find me on DU if you want to volunteer.

    Ignorance is Curable.

    by skids on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 01:54:27 PM PDT

  •  All I want for Christmas (4.00 / 3)

    is to overturn this presidency. . . .

    Separation of Church and State AND Corporation

    by Einsteinia on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 01:54:41 PM PDT

  •  initial response (4.00 / 2)

    Exit polls are actually supposed to be corrected to conform to the vote total results, that is how they work.  Now, the size of the correction may be an issue and something to look into, but the mere fact that an exit poll is "corrected" is not a damning suggestion of anything.

    The chances of the election being that far off due to randomness being very small - all that proves is that it probably wasn't due to chance, not that there wasn't another reasonable explanation for the bias.  Again, it's reason for investigation, not proof of fraud.  Now, the investigation of why the exit polls were so far off might very well turn up evidence of fraud, but the exit polls being that far off are NOT by themselves evidence of fraud.  This isn't to minimize the other fraudulent evidence we have, of course.

    You would expect to see shifts in favor of both candidates.  Yes, I think that's a good point.  Now, I wouldn't necessarily expect the shifts to be equal, because urban (democratic) areas require more in the way of organization, meaning, there are more points of failure.  We have to acknowledge that.  That said, I believe the disparity (between the anti-kerry shifts and the anti-bush shifts) far exceeds that as an explanation.  But I don't have a clear idea of how much of a disparity should be considered reasonable.

    Reducing the opportunity to scrutinize odd results.  Yes, yes, YES - this is where fraud occurs.  I'm a programmer very experienced with debugging, and I know that you can put all kinds of efforts into designing a secure system, but if you have just one stupid, weak point in the system, then you might as well not have done any security at all if someone takes advantage of it.  Counting the votes accurately doesn't matter worth a whit if you entrust a person to transmit those totals from one place to another, and they have the opportunity to change them.

    "unconstitutional discrimination served as a smokescreen".  Well, that may have happened in practice, but I'm not sure if he's saying it was planned that way.  If he's attempting to prove that, that would certainly require some very interesting evidence.  At this point, it just sounds like an allegation.

    If he has evidence of stuffing Bush votes, or destroying Kerry votes, I can't wait for it to come out.

    Regarding the chuckherrin site, this kind of hackery (of the central tabulating computers) would be uncovered in a proper recount, simply by comparing a precinct's result to what the tabulator has recorded for that precinct.  But it would require different protections in place to make sure the precinct totals are accurately reported.  One thing to stand behind is to demand counties to publicly report their per-precinct totals.  Those that actually count the precinct ballots can compare to those numbers, and know that this form of hackery did not happen.

    Does he actually have evidence of self-deleting programs?  This sounds unproveable without a whistleblower.

    The allegations of Blackwell unlawfully prohibiting review of records sounds like it has teeth.  That seems more about abuse of position than evidence of actual fraud, but slapping him with criminal charges would help the credibility of the case a lot.

    The good stuff; this suggestion of 130,000 votes being switched from Kerry to Bush.  What's the evidence?  I guess that is part of what will be introduced later.  If it's merely a guesstimate of how many machines may have recorded Bush votes when the voter picked Kerry, I'll be disappointed as I don't think that will go far.  But if they actually have proof of ballots that are supposed to count for Kerry and aren't, then this is pretty thrilling.

  •  It will be interesting to see... (none / 0)

    How long it takes, or IF, the TRO gets signed (and by whom, as many have pointed out that it only needs considered by the Chief Justice, and clearly, Moyers will need to recuse himself).

    That will be the first sign of whether or not they are taking this thing seriously.

    I'm not afraid of terrorists anymore. I'm afraid of my government.

    by supergreen on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 02:05:20 PM PDT

  •  I'd still like... (none / 0)

    ...some of the legal minds among us to say why Moyer was named.
    •  Why Moyer Is a Defendant (none / 0)

      Moyer is also named as a defendant, because he also was elected improperly.  Votes given to Thomas Moyer should have been credited to Ellen Connally.  

      See the Prayer for Relief on pages 46 and 47 of the Petition.  

      Appears that there was a whole lot of stealing going on.  

      Rove to Gonzales:  "Hey, Alberto, can you explain all this to me?  Does this mean they are on to us?  Can we get in trouble?  Call Kerik and see if he can fix this."

    •  They want Moyer to recuse himself. (none / 0)

      IMO.
      •  I think in an election contests in Ohio... (none / 0)

        ...the chief justice decides whether or not to hear the case at all, and the other side can appeal to the full court. By getting the chief justice out of the way, perhaps this goes straight to the full court. That also eliminates one republican (the court in 5-2 republican). Just a thought.
  •  funny section: (4.00 / 5)

    Here's a small section in the suit that amused me:

    On information and belief, plaintiffs-contestors allege that George W. Bush participated personally and substantially (directly and/or through one or more agents as for examples persons whose identity and exact minute-by-minute actions are presently unknown to plaintiffs-contestees but who are identified herein as agents John Doe, Richard Roe, and Karl Roe 1-100)...

    Karl Roe?  hahahahaha

  •  Why the wait? What's in those affadavits? (none / 0)

    The second document is an injuction, asking that the court enjoin the Electors from casting their votes (too late!), or from transmitting those votes.

    Why did Arnebeck wait until December 13th to file an injunction against an event scheduled for that very day? What was in those affadavits that couldn't have been collected earlier?

  •  Section on exit polling. (4.00 / 2)

    I found this section in the suit on exit polling:

    ...the NEP conducted two basic types of exit poll in 2004.  First, there were statewide exit polls which in total involved interviews with over 73,000 voters.  Second, there was an entirely separate national poll which involved interviews with over 13,000 voters.  The reported sample size of over 13,000, which is approximately six (6) times larger than that customarily employed in high quality pre-election national polls, yields a very small margin of error and results in a very high level of expected accuracy.  Therefore, one would expect to find a very close congruence between exit poll results and actual poll results.  As discussed below however, the lack of congruence in this election between the exit poll results and the actual vote results is dramatic.

    I'm not an expert on exit polling.  But based off of my reading over at Mystery Pollster's, and Ruy Teixiera's, I just don't think this is an accurate understanding of exit polling.

    Sample sizes and margins of error have to do with random representative samples, and you can't say that exit poll samples are random representative samples.  They do a lot of work to try an ensure that their samples are as random and representative as possible, but they only data they have to go on is prior elections and polls.  The whole point is they can't predict who is going to turn out and who isn't, so therefore they can't predict the makeup of the population they are sampling from, therefore they can't ensure they have a random and representative sample.

    Now, these guys are pretty good, and they can probably get somewhat close to a random and representative sample anyway, but it's reasonable to expect that the margin of error would be much higher.

    And in an election like this one, where the most notable demographic shift was the number of long-registered conservative voters that hadn't voted recently, that could very reasonably push things out of whack a bit.  I just don't know how much.

    Anyway, I'm making an issue out of this because I really want to kick the tires of this suit and get a feeling for how credible it is.  This kind of thing might be a mark against it, though - if they are on the wrong side of a statistical expert coming in and testifying against them, then... that's not a good position to be in.

    •  Maybe I'm missing something here... (none / 0)


      They do a lot of work to try an ensure that their samples are as random and representative as possible, but they only data they have to go on is prior elections and polls.  The whole point is they can't predict who is going to turn out and who isn't, so therefore they can't predict the makeup of the population they are sampling from, therefore they can't ensure they have a random and representative sample.

      Now, these guys are pretty good, and they can probably get somewhat close to a random and representative sample anyway, but it's reasonable to expect that the margin of error would be much higher.

      Aren't exit polls taken at polling places? Which is to say: assuming the people making up the sample are not lying through their teeth, wouldn't you expect the margin of error to be pretty small, given that these people have just finished casting their votes (i.e., they've already "turned out")?

      "...hope is not the equivalent of optimism. Its opposite is not pessimism but despair. So I'm always hopeful." William Sloane Coffin

      by mxwing on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 03:17:41 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  polling places (none / 1)

        Yes.  But, the point is they don't go to every polling place.

        The pick the polling places ahead of time, and there is no way for them to predict the turnout of these precincts ahead of time.

        So there is definite opportunity for the sample to be weighted in a way that is not representative of the voting population as a whole.

        It is true that the exit pollsters are guaranteed to be talking to people who have actually voted, unlike pre-election polls.  But it's not a guarantee that the people they are talking to are representative of the voting population as a whole.

        •  But (none / 0)

          Is it reasonable for all the "swings" to go in Bush's favor in every battleground state?

          Yeah, exit polling isn't perfect.  But to be the most imperfect in only the swing states and in only one direction across the board is really suspect, IMHO.

          OTH, I suppose you could say that's why they call them "swing" states.  Still, doesn't account for the fact that the all the exit polls were off in a way that only favored Bush.

          There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy. -- Hamlet Act 1, Scene 5

          by LawStudent on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 06:20:21 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Some Explanations, None Good (none / 0)

            There have been some explanations floated about this, but all fail to totally explain the magnitude and consistency of the errors. The most plausible is that voters in the swing states were ashamed of voting for Bush, but felt they had to if just to make their disapproval of Kerry heard. The problem with that is... Why then turn around and claim you voted for Kerry on the exit poll? It makes no sense, even from their rather strange point of view.

            •  Voters respond anonymously... (none / 0)

              They fill out cards and drop them into a sealed box, which is then taken back to a central location.  I can't see why anyone would have a reason to lie.

              Yes, in fact, I do drive a Volvo.

              by KTinOhio on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 09:27:30 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Pretty Much My Point... (none / 0)

                The explanation of the discrepency either requires large numbers of voters lying for no discernible reason in swing states, large numbers of Bush voters simply not filling out exit polls, or horrendously pro-Kerry samples in every single swing state.

                This is just so improbable that it's not even funny.

                •  Couldn't we compare at precinct level? (none / 0)

                  Wouldn't a solution just be to somehow demand the release of unadjusted exit poll data? Not sure if there's a case for doing that but if there is a lawsuit based in part on exit polls, there miht be a way.

                  Anyway, if we get the exit poll results in all the selected Ohio precincts, we could do a weihted averae of these polls and compare it to the actual results in this poll. If there still is a question, there would be no more doubt on the fact there is a problem.

                  "The delusional is no longer marginal but has come in from the fringe to influence the seats of power

                  by FightOn on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 10:41:21 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Exit Poll Data (none / 0)

                    That would be one way to investigate where exactly the problems crept in, yeah. The only problem is that the exit poll data isn't owned by the exit polling company but, rather, large, Republican-owned media companies. Who refuse to release it until (IIRC) after the inaugration.

                    •  That's OK, I still want an investigation (none / 0)

                      I really have lost hope of anything coming through before the inauguration. We still need a thorough investigation to assess the legitimacy of this vote... and this presidency.

                      "The delusional is no longer marginal but has come in from the fringe to influence the seats of power

                      by FightOn on Wed Dec 15, 2004 at 06:56:18 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

            •  simplest explanation is unusually high GOP turnout (none / 0)

              in GOP-leaning areas.  Exit poll precincts are selected for representativeness based on historical turnout.  If Kove et. al. managed to turn out more Bush voters in targeted pro-Bush precincts than the historical model predicted, then the raw exit poll numbers would skew in Kerry's favor because the precincts selected by the exit pollsters would have under-represented Bush voters.  And there's plenty of reason to think that happened, both based on Rove's well-reported "72 hour" plan (
              http://www.google.com/search?q=rove%20%2272%20hour%22) and observations by Dem GOTV folks on the ground -- Howard Dean, in his Nov 3 conference call with DFA meetups, noted that the Reps won Florida because, as good as the Dem GOTV effort was, the Rep effort was better.

              There was plenty of fraud -- ripping up Dem registrations, voter intimidation, missing voting machines, uncounted ballots, and so on.  There is concrete evidence of this, and the case is weakened by concentration on indirect statistical arguments that are largely based on misinformation and misunderstanding.

              •  yes (none / 0)

                that's been my opinion as well as to the most likely explanation.  That would really explain a lot of this, and we also know that this higher turnout in rural precincts really did happen.

                The only thing complicating that is that I thought I read... somewhere... that a post-election analysis did show that the exit poll raw numbers really did turn out to be a representative sample after all.  But I don't have a source, so I don't know how seriously to take that.

                •  if that were so ... (none / 0)

                  then there would be no mismatch with election results and nothing to talk about.  There's nothing other than actual election results on which to base a conclusion that the exit polls were representative.  Note that the Freeman paper explicitly assumed that the exit poll numbers were representative, and then showed that the vote tallies were fudged -- that their deviation from the exit poll numbers almost certainly wasn't by chance.  Alternatively, one can assume that the vote tallies weren't fudged and then Freeman has shown that the exit polls weren't representative.  But one or the other is merely an assumption, absent independent evidence.
          •  If Bush did better than expected, then yes (none / 0)

            People don't realize that the exit poll argument is circular, because the exit polling is based on historical expectation.  If the historical expectation was correct, then exit polls shouldn't have swung in Bush's favor, but if the expectation underestimated Bush's actual results, then the exit polls would reflect that.  Exit polls simply aren't designed to verify actual election results, as exit pollers have repeatedly noted.

            There's good reason to think that Bush did better than expected because of his extremely well planned and organized GOTV effort, an effort that has been testified to by many Dems in the field.  This is not to deny that there was also a massive vote suppression effort -- there was.  But the statistical arguments are bogus, especially that paper from Freeman -- whose PhD is in management, not statistics or any other relevant field.

    •  If they get to that point good (none / 0)

      I think what they want is the subpeona power and access that comes with the discovery process. If they get to the point of dueling statisticians they're golden.
  •  Seperate but equal voting (none / 1)

    Must be stopped.  Call it what it is.

    Seperate but equal voting

    I'm for extending the working Medicare program, so Americans can concentrate on living their lives without fear of changing a job or going bankrupt.

    by jm1963 on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 02:56:50 PM PDT

  •  One Fine Piece of Work (none / 0)

    Georgia,

    Damn niece piece of work for "skimming through" the documents.

    Thanks!!

  •  Smoking Gun (none / 0)

    I am still waiting for the smoking gun that shows wides spread deliberate fraud.

    Its clear there was voter supression, but I havent seen evidence, just the claims of wide spread voter fraud on a large  scale. Just seems like a lot of disperate stuff all over the place to me so far.

    Not saying there isnt any, just aint seen it yet. Recount starts in a few days, gonna be interested in the 3% manual recount here in Ohio to see if it matches up with the machine count. Gonna be a long month.

    •  3% (none / 0)

      I'm concerned about the 3% rule.

      For reasonable people, the whole idea is to take a random subset of the vote and see how they look.

      It's so obvious that you'd need a random subset that people might not have thought to make that 100% clear.

      But then if the "random" part isn't there, then that means the Republicans can argue that they can cherry-pick the 3% that they want.  Namely, the 3% pre-engineered to match the resultant vote count.

      •  I wouldnt worry about that too much (none / 0)

        the 3% is picked on a county by county basis, and at least in my county, it was random.

        If the hand count and machine count dont match, then there is a 100% hand recount I am told, and I expect. Though i dont know if it has to be an EXACT match to force that. If it is, then it seems almost inevitable that there will be a lot of county 100% handcuonts going on, just because of the nature of the punch cards getting worn.

        •  If the 3% hand recount matches (none / 0)

          the machine count, are the rest of all votes recounted by machine and matched to the November 2 tally?

          This is a critical question, because as I recount here - Machine Tampering President Speaks in a telephone conversation I had with Brett Rapp, President of Triad, if ALL votes are not recounted, then any contact with the voting machines prior to the recount becomes suspect.

          Suppose, for example, a machine was set to "skim" votes.  During contact with that machine prior to the recount, the "skimming" routine can be removed to allow for accurate count.  The machine count then matches the hand recount, and you think everything is ok.

          Blackwell, according to Rapp, has ordered that the recount not report on any other contests on the ballot, so workers are being dispatched to the machines to enter commands to suppress reporting on all contests except for President.

          See the potential problem?

          If the machine count matches the hand count, we must still put all bllots throught the machines and compare to the Nov 2 totals to assure that no "skimming" or later hacking took place.

          Visit the above diary, and follow the conversation with Rapp for yourself.

        •  I would worry about it quite alot. (none / 0)

          Blackwell's instructions to the BOE's were to select the 3% however they wanted. Some may try to use a random selection, but we already have reports from counties that have been counted that the selection was not random and that the selection was completed by election officials in private before observers arrived.

          Sounds like you may have been in county that did it right, but that's not what they're doing elsewhere.

          •  Maybe (none / 0)

            There isnt a consistent standard to it, so it wouldnt surprise me at all if some counties werent random.

            And since we dont know that there was fraud, and if there was what method was used, who knows whats going to happen, until it happens. I suspect lots of law suits during and after the count to be honest. This is going to be going on well into 2005 I suspect. Heck a manual hand count cuold take a month or more.

            One thing ot note, some counties already have hand counts for other races going on, and its a first come first served basis, so in some counties, the Pres recount may not start for a week or more depending upon how those recounts go.

            •  The law says random (none / 0)

              Blackwell says the counties can choose the random method.  The spirit of the law is certainly to allow observers. That should include at the choosing of the 3%. Doing it in private is making a mockery of the law and the Greens should have ran to a Judge to get a ruling on this. They knew last week this was going on, so why not?
              •  I dont know (none / 0)

                I didnt know the law said it had to be random either. Do you know where in the OH revised code it states that ? be interested in seeing what provision there is.

                Boy if ever we needed uniform standard across the board for all this tuff, huh ?

                •  requirement for random selection (none / 0)

                  The official OH recount procedures are here

                  According to page 3 of the manual, for punchcard precincts:

                  The board must randomly select whole precincts whose total equals at least 3% of the total vote. These precincts' ballots must be manually counted.

                  Page 4 has the same provision for opti-scan counties.

                  This means that any county NOT making a random selection is breaking the rules.   Bush v. Gore, anyone?

        •  Yeah right (none / 1)

          In Hamilton County (Cincinnati) the hand count didn't match the machine for two precints. They went back and forced the hand-count to match. They claimed to find 'overvotes' that two pairs of human eyes missed but the machine caught. Hmmmm. The article I read made it seem like avoiding a county-wide hand count trumped accuracy. By the human standard these weren't overvotes, the intention of the voter was clear. But laziness rules out, let the machines (and their programmers) do the work.

          What county are you in? How do you know it was random? And were the machines tampered with after the random precinct was picked, as in Hocking County?

  •  Some Questions (none / 0)

    I wish I knew more about the law.  This sure sounds like a substantial case to me, but I'm on the side that wants to believe it.  

    Can the judges just decided not to hear the case at all? If they decide to hear it, does that put the burden of proof on the "defendants-contestees"?  Can they just hear parts and not others?

    Also, were there election fraud lawsuits that were filed in Florida in 2000?  If so, whatever happened to those lawsuits?  Did the DNC learn anything from what happened then that has influenced their strategy this time around?

    I also wonder what the differences are in Ohio vs. Florida election law?  Would there be any advantages to fighting this out in Ohio?

    Some of these are very serious allegations, and I can't imagine someone like Cliff Arnebeck filing a frivolous lawsuit against the president of the United States.  He must believe he can win this.  He had better watch his back and stay away from cliffs, upper story windows, the rooftops of tall buildings, and (especially) airplanes.

    I read the article that is posted on the Moritz Law website (thanks for the link!) and my head is still swimming!

    •  Some Answers (none / 1)

      1.  Can the judges just decided not to hear the case at all?

      I believe election appeals filed with the Supreme Court are discretionary, not as of right.  Still trying to find a link for it though.

      2.  If they decide to hear it, does that put the burden of proof on the "defendants-contestees"?

      If they decide to hear it, the plaintiffs, Arnebeck & Co. will have the burden of proof to come forward with evidence of fraud/irregularities.  Then, Bush & Co. will have to provide evidence to counterbalance or refute that.  

      3. Can they just hear parts and not others?

      Well, it is possible that part of the complaint can be stricken by the court at the request of a party if one claim has merit and the other was not pleaded sufficiently.

      4. Also, were there election fraud lawsuits that were filed in Florida in 2000?  If so, whatever happened to those lawsuits?  Did the DNC learn anything from what happened then that has influenced their strategy this time around?

      Yes, there were lawsuits filed.  I'm not sure what became of them all, but here is a great article about how Florida settled with the NAACP after it filed a lawsuit about systematic voter disenfranchisement.  Also here:  Quietly Florida Admits 2000 Election Fraud.  As for whether the DNC learned anything, I'm not sure.  But I do know that Arnebeck and the other lawyers on this case are highly competent lawyers who would have researched any and all cases involving election fraud, since those will be the ones they will be relying on as binding or persuasive precedent at trial.

      5.  I also wonder what the differences are in Ohio vs. Florida election law?  Would there be any advantages to fighting this out in Ohio?

      There probably are differences, especially when it comes to how recounts are carried out.  Election law is largely a creature of state statute, so there are differences across states (even differences within a state, if you recall!).  This lawsuit was filed in Ohio because that is where the most evidence of fraud was, and the Ohio voters that stepped forward have standing there to contest the election.

      I only read the Constitution for the Articles.

      by georgia10 on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 05:46:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You guys rock!!! (none / 0)

    i'm from michigan and you can bet everyone i can possibly reach will know about this. i am one pissed off citizen and i will type for as long as i can possibly stand it. when i am upset or passionate about something i write so i will get a lot of mileage out of this situation. may god bless us all
  •  thanks - (none / 0)

    for the nice summary.
    back to my prayers now.
  •  Nice Analysis. You Folks all know... (none / 1)

    ...unless John Kerry gets serious about Ohio and Damn fast, all this righteous indignation is going exactly nowhere.  

    The Judge pretty much yawned at the Arnebeck suit because of no concern by Kerry.

    The final report on the 2000 election that showed Gore won in 6 out of 9 tortured recount senarios was released on 9-12-01...gee do ya think it might have gotten overshadowed by the previous days activities? ...And Gore actually was stand-up for a few weeks until the SCOTUS slap down.

    Even Olbermann (our only MSM "attendee") is right here when he talks about Kerry's "I was against a recount before I was for one", and "I didn't think we could win, but now I think we might"

    Jeezus Ceehrist!

    If JFK doesn't "Report for Duty" Pretty damn soon we can all ... "Now watch this drive".

    "When the going gets Weird...The Weird turn Pro". -- Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

    by Blue Shark on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 05:10:03 PM PDT

    •  Im so Pissed... (none / 0)

      ...I guess I have to ask.  With the "too cute for words" shadow boxing over the last 6 weeks by Kerry/Edwards 2004 ... do we even want him?

      Troll rate me here!

      "When the going gets Weird...The Weird turn Pro". -- Dr. Hunter S. Thompson

      by Blue Shark on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 05:13:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can't be about Kerry (none / 1)

      For this to be effective it can't be about Kerry.  The second it's about Kerry the tail (SCLM) starts wagging the dog (popular opinion) against the Sore Loserman.

      This is about a seriously flawed election process -- which can be abused to effectively disenfranchise the majority of Americans.  Let's hold the abusers accountable.

      Believe you me.  Kerry is serious about Ohio.

      •  Problem with that Logic (none / 1)

        There's a problem with that logic. Namely, it's that Kerry must be a loud, public voice in the process for certain things to happen. There have already been reports of judges refusing to issue orders requiring Blackwell to comply with certain aspects of Ohio election law because Kerry is not involved. Their reasoning is that, if there were substantial harm, Kerry would be contesting. And if there really were fraud, in order for Kerry to not be contesting, he would have to be in on it.

        Kerry's silence harms the process more than it helps it.

    •  Not This Time (none / 0)

      unless John Kerry gets serious about Ohio and Damn fast, all this righteous indignation is going exactly nowhere.

      I think this time is different.

      I think if the party is determined to bend over instead of fighting, there will be consequences.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 10:04:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not yet (none / 0)

        I really don't think that the time is right for Kerry and the DNC to go public on the issue of election fraud.  However, I am convinced that they are behind the Arnebeck legal strategy all the way.

        Please don't underestimate the power of the corporate media to make this a Sore Loserman issue and not an issue of election fraud.  Please don't underestimate their power to poison people's mind against this investigation once and for all.

        Let's give Kerry some credit for being very smart about this.  He has more invested and more at stake than any of us.  He can just look at Al Gore to see what it does to a man when his presidency is stolen out from under him, in broad daylight.

        Keep the faith.

  •  More questions! (none / 0)

    I read the whole thing on the way home and would be grateful for any insight into the following:

    # 49.  They mention Moyer as a defendent-contestee, but don't say what they are charging against him as they do with the others.

    #s 51 - 70.  Who are all of the other people that they name (Alex Arshinkoff, Phil Bowman, et al)?   Were they candidates on the Bush-Cheney ticket?

    The exit poll thing.  What are the odds that this can stand up as evidence for fraud?  Is there any legal precedent in this country?

    # 83.  "This implies that there is a 44,999/45,000 chance that the national exit poll result is either not random or that the election itself was not honest."  Could someone please translate 44,999/45,000 into English for me?  What does this mean, exactly?

    # 126.  "It is statistically suspicious that the extra votes came in at essentially the same percentage for candidates Bush and Kerry both before and after the extra 18,615 votes were counted."

    a) what is the legal precedent for "statistical suspicion"?
    b) are they saying that the vote count was padded and then the extra votes were "hidden" by mirroring the existing percentages?  Why would the addition of 18,615 votes of necessity come in at a variable percentage?

    I'm also wondering about a "preponderance of evidence."  Not that I know anything about law besides what I learn from watching courtroom dramas (not much!).  But I just wonder how anyone could not be totally dismayed by all of the things that went "wrong."

    Plus I have to wonder how anyone could pull off something like what is described in this filing?  Plus -- multiply it by all of the other swing states that are named!!

    I believe all these things may have happened, but how did they do it?  Seems like Bush-Cheney 04 would need a veritable army of conscience-less opportunists who see cheating as the treatment-of-choice for saving our so-called democracy.

    •  44,999/45,000 chance (none / 0)

      means there was a 1 in 45,000 chance that there was no fraud assuming the exit poll was properly random.
    •  More answers :) (4.00 / 1)

      # 49.  They mention Moyer as a defendent-contestee, but don't say what they are charging against him as they do with the others.

      Most likely, he was named as a Defendant just to make it clear that he should recuse himself from the case.  It is not out of the realm of possibility though that he, along with the other Defendants, could be alleged to be part of the scheme later on (he DID get more votes based on the Connelly switcheroo, looks like Arnebeck is covering all the bases without coming straight out and implicating the justice)

      #s 51 - 70.  Who are all of the other people that they name (Alex Arshinkoff, Phil Bowman, et al)?   Were they candidates on the Bush-Cheney ticket?

      Alex Arshinkoff:  Chair of the Summit County GOP.  Accused of fondling a college kid here. Rove is said to call him up for advice.  Yes, he is that sleazy.

      Phil Bowman:  Member of Ohio GOP committee.  Bigshit in the Coal industry.  Also an Elector.

      The exit poll thing.  What are the odds that this can stand up as evidence for fraud?  Is there any legal precedent in this country?

      There is legal precendent for using statistical analysis to prove something in court; it happens all the time.  Usually terms into a battle of the brains with expert statisticians dueling it out, but if it can be proven that the anomalies are well outside the MoE, then yes, it could hold up in court.

      # 83.  "This implies that there is a 44,999/45,000 chance that the national exit poll result is either not random or that the election itself was not honest."  Could someone please translate 44,999/45,000 into English for me?  What does this mean, exactly?

      It means that there is only a .001% chance that we had an honest election, or that a lifetime polling expert screwed up.  It means that statistically, there is a 99% chance of mistake or fraud.  The latter being highly unlikely, it means the statistical analysis proves that the election results are not genuine.  The good thing is that the standard doesn't have to be "beyond a reasonable doubt"...all that is required is a preponderance of the evidence.  That .001% figure sure tips the scales in our favor.

      # 126.  "It is statistically suspicious that the extra votes came in at essentially the same percentage for candidates Bush and Kerry both before and after the extra 18,615 votes were counted."

      a) what is the legal precedent for "statistical suspicion"?
      b) are they saying that the vote count was padded and then the extra votes were "hidden" by mirroring the existing percentages?  Why would the addition of 18,615 votes of necessity come in at a variable percentage?

      "Statistical suspicion", afaik, is not a legal term of art.  Anything outside of the norm or MoE would, I guess, trigger suspicion of the data.

      The suspicious thing is that those 18,615 votes had no effect on the percentages, meaning that the same percentage of votes (say, 51% for Bush, 48% for Kerry) came in consistently.  That is a red flag, because usually, such a large influx of votes, especially if they are from central counties, will significantly change the percentages.

      I only read the Constitution for the Articles.

      by georgia10 on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 07:33:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What's next in the legal world? (none / 0)

    Can someone explain to my non-lawyer self what the next step we may be waiting for legally is?  Now that the lawsuit is filed, MUST the court address it or may it deny any hearing of evidence?  Does the fact that the electors have already cast their vote mean the State Court no longer has jurisdiction?  What are their options?
  •  Thanks for posting this. (none / 0)

    It's a great recap and reference.

    Asto another matter, I had a lengthy telephone conversation with the President of the company supected of machine tampering (Brett Rapp, Triad).  This is the Company David Cobb referenced to Representative Conyers.

    I detail the conversation in a separate diary here.

    I hope you stop by and read what he had to say.  I'd also appreciate some input on whether or not you think there might be fire near this smoke.

  •  Arnebeck on FAUX now discussing the lawsuit (none / 0)

    Hannity is a jerk, by the way.

    I only read the Constitution for the Articles.

    by georgia10 on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 06:08:22 PM PDT

    •  Hannity--what a jerk! (none / 0)

      He barely gave Arnebeck time to speak. Kept cutting him off, after letting him only say a couple of sentences. Didn't give him any time to detail the evidence. Kept calling him a sore loser and saying "Get over it!" Never even gave Colmes a chance to speak with him either.

      If that's the kind of coverage the MSM is going to give this issue, I don't think it's going to do us any favors. Of course, Faux News is the worst of the worst.

    •  FAUX is NOT a 'real news' channel (none / 0)

      FAUX has a strategy of satisfiying staunch Repubs by telling them what they want to hear -- under the guise of 'news'. It is an audience share strategy. FAUX is NOT a 'real news' channel.

      Why we even bother showing up there is hard to understand. You are guaranteed unfair treatment if you disagree with their dogma.

      Anyone for a quick game of Chess.

      by CitizenOfEarth on Wed Dec 15, 2004 at 09:01:43 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The lawsuit (none / 0)

    Yep, I also read the entire complaint.  Let's just hope they can prove it.  I also just saw Arnebeck on Fox.  The problem with Fox (barf) is that they are rude and loud and interrupt a lot.  But don't forget, they are "fair and balanced."  How do I know that?  Because they say it at least once an hour.  I have a friend who gets all her news from Fox.  Whenever I critize them, she says, "they are fair and balanced."  

    I do not know what weapons World War III will be fought with. World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones. -- Albert Einstein

    by elveta on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 06:15:41 PM PDT

  •  The Right is Scared (4.00 / 2)

    Hannity was louder and, if possible, more of an ass than usual.

    He had to keep cutting Arnebeck off with "You lost, get over it" and "Keep dreaming" every two seconds to keep him from talking about the truth.

    Arnebeck could've been more forceful, to the point, but going up against one of the rudest motherf*ckers on TV takes practice, and considering that, he did a good job.

    But boy, you can just tell how the right is starting to squirm....raising their voices to hide the fact they speak no substance and can't refute the evidence.

    I only read the Constitution for the Articles.

    by georgia10 on Tue Dec 14, 2004 at 06:20:38 PM PDT

  •  Thank you (none / 0)

    Thanks for all your excellent diaries on this georgia, keep up the good work.
  •  At what point (if any) in this process would there (none / 0)

    be a possibility for an independent COMPLETE examination of the voting machines/tabulators?

    http://www.artistval.com

    by Alizaryn on Wed Dec 15, 2004 at 12:51:39 PM PDT

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