Daily Kos

Zogby poll in Virginia and on the ground report

by Clark04

Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 09:46:10 AM PDT

I have not seen this published on Kos. This was released internally on Thursday and shows how in play Virgina truly is this year. This is a Zogby interactive;

Bush 49% Kerry 48%
Kerry leads in the following;
Woman          59-39
Singles        55-40
Younger voters 59-39
Moderates      59-38

I am disappointed that Catholics (me) are in the tank for bush 63-31. Bush does not represent the Catholicism on which I was raised.

On another note. With the emergence of Virgina as a new battleground state, we scheduled our first Kerry-Edwards Meet-up in Newport News to introduce the campaign plan to volunteers on the Peninsula. Many in the past traveled over to Norfolk to attend Meet-Ups. The Peninsula encompasses the cities of Hampton, Newport News and York County and also Williamsburg which had a separate Meet Up.

I booked a restaurant banquet room. 25 RSVP'd on the Meet Up web page. I anticipated about 50 in a room which could accommodate a crowd a bit larger than 50. After we squeezed 100 in the room, the manager started turning away people due to concerns they would have with the Fire Marshall. I do not how many were turned away! We are looking for a larger place to hold another one after Labor Day. There is allot of pent up energy in Virgina which has not been able to be let out in 40 years!

By the way, if you want to join us, email me at Peninsula4Kerry@cox.net

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Permalink | 24 comments

  •  Good to hear (none / 1)

    ..so I presume you dispute the CNN story (or perhaps the Dem strategists who supposedly said to CNN) that ads were being pulled from Va, and that they conceded the state to Bush... as you should - I might add. IF some Dem strategist(s) did say that to CNN, they should be fired (unless its some elaborate bluffing out of CNN and the Repubs that they've done here)

    Canadian Progressive Bloggers

    by tribe34 on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 09:57:12 AM PDT

    •  Don't know about ads... (none / 1)

      ...but no way anybody has conceded Virginia to Bush.  The Virginia Victory '04 fund just opened up two offices in Virginia - one in Richmond, one in Merrifield (in Northern VA just outside the Beltway).  They've got 20 full time people on the ground and thousands of people who've volunteered.  No way they're conceding anything.

      They may be conserving cash by not running ads right now, but it's the ground operation that's really going to turn out voters.  And we've not had a ground operation like this EVER as far as I know.

      And to make my little sales pitch here, a major share of the GOTV and outreach efforts around the state is going to be run out of our Congressional campaigns.  Many of those candidates will not win their races, but giving them enough money to be aggressive with GOTV and voter outreach is what will pull in those few precious percentage points around the state to turn the entire state blue.

      Lots of people I know have hesitated giving to someone like Al Weed, for instance, because they think he is just a little too far back at this point to win.  But the Charlottesville and central Virginia area is polling really strong for Kerry right now (according to SUSA), and if we can help Al raise enough to get more phone banks up this fall, it is going to pay off big for Kerry.

      The opposite situation exists for incumbents like Bobby Scott and Jim Moran.  Most people see them in safe D districts, so don't think they need the money.  Because they're in D areas, they can use the money even more.

       Bobby Scott, for instance, is running in an area with the most African-American voters in the state.  Too many people think he's gonna coast to victory and doesn't need any money.  I helped host a fundraiser for Bobby Scott in June, and even Dean people I know who LOVE Bobby were reluctant to donate because they just thought he didn't need the money since he was a "sure win".   But you know what?  He's running against another African-American, a very conservative so-called Christian.  She could very well shave off a good chunk of African-American voters who oppose gay marriage and abortion, and John Kerry can't afford to lose those votes.  Last week's SUSA poll showed Bush with 22% of the African-American vote in Virginia, which is INSANE.  We need to help support Bobby Scott's efforts to turn out every vote possible in VA-3 for him and John Kerry.

      Please help if you can!

      I proudly work for Jim Himes for Congress in CT-04.

      by Maura in VA on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:13:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Norfolk Campaign Office (4.00 / 2)

        They have selected a Norfolk location for a 3rd office for the Kerry Edwards Virginia Victory 04 campaign. That announcement is is imminent, along with our satellite office for the Peninsula.

        I made a post about that 22% AA vote in the SUSA poll with the statement "if bush gets 22% of the AA vote in Virginia, I'll eat a bug in front of God and Country."

        Warner/Clark '08 - Republican Nightmare Ticket

        by Clark04 on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:31:56 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  idunno (none / 1)

      about the ads being pulled.

      The last 2 polls, Survey USA and now Zogby, have Bush at 49%. this is a great sign of bush's vulnerability in the state. Whether these are in conflict with internal polls, I can't address.

      What I do know, is our area has 1 field director and 2 field coordinators just hired for Virginia. The Peninsula was under the paid staffers for the "Southside", Norfolk and Virgina Beach. Why they are putting in new paid staffers and simultaneously ceding the state to bush seems at odds!

      Warner/Clark '08 - Republican Nightmare Ticket

      by Clark04 on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:21:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Television ads are still playing in Roanoke, VA. (none / 1)

      I've seen them as recently as Wednesday.  We're not being bombarded by ads -- and I'd expect they might cut back the ads during the RNC -- but they definitely haven't given up here.  

      Finally Equal -- TV dumbing you down? We'll dumb you back up.

      by osterizer on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 11:02:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Virginia strategy (none / 1)

    Northern Virginia can't carry the state on its own. Your anecdote is one of several I've heard that there is untapped potential all around the state.

    If I can help in any way from Brooklyn let me know. I do mail lists for a living.

    -fink

    Al Gore didn't lose in 2000. America did.

    by fink on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 09:58:28 AM PDT

  •  Four times RSVP rate??? WOW. (none / 1)

    That's amazing.  I've got nearly 150 people RSVP'd for our Turn Virginia Blue BBQ tomorrow, and I'm hoping we'll get double that in the park.  

    But MAN, if we get your rate of RSVP's to people who show up, we're gonna be a few hundred hot dogs short!  ;-)  It's a problem I wouldn't mind having, though!  We can always make an emergency run to Costco, I guess!

    I proudly work for Jim Himes for Congress in CT-04.

    by Maura in VA on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:15:42 AM PDT

    •  maybe more (none / 1)

      I don't know how many were turned away at the door!

      I printed 100 agenda and sign-up forms and ran out! Every bumper sticker, button, window sign and tee shirt I had is gone.

      Warner/Clark '08 - Republican Nightmare Ticket

      by Clark04 on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:38:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  VA on the Table? (none / 1)

    If it is any comfort, Bush does not represent the Catholicism on which I was raised, and still practice, today either and those numbers from VA don;t come close to matching up with what I have seen nationally where Kerry has a slight lead among Catholics.

    Also, I would suspect that Catholics make up a rather small percentage of the statewide population of Virginia.  Still, if those numbers are accurate (and I am among those who are skeptical of Zogby polls) if the Catholic numbers can close just a little bit in VA it could make a big difference in how those 13 EVs swing.

    Catholics For Kerry 04  

    http://catholicsforkerry04.org/

    by Leo McGarry on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:17:33 AM PDT

    •  Catholics in VA seem more right wing (none / 0)

      Not sure what it is but living in VA finally led to me quitting the Mother Church altogether. My wife (a nice Congregationalist) finally pointed out that I was coming home pissed of from Mass every week after hearing homily after homily about abortion. The last straw was when we moved to a new parish and I could find neither a parish bulletin or a mass schedule amidst all the anti-abortion literature.

      The Arlington diocese is certainly one of the most conservative I've ever experienced. The prior bishop refused to let girls serve as altar servers and was the only bishop in the entire country to do so. My own pet theory on the VA Catholic Church is that it developed a defensive, support the Church at all costs mindset existing as it did among a population of hostile Protestants.

      - "You're Hells Angels, then? What chapter are you from?"
      - REVELATIONS, CHAPTER SIX.

      by Hoya90 on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 01:47:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Arrivederci Roma (none / 1)

    I am disappointed that Catholics (me) are in the tank for bush 63-31. Bush does not represent the Catholicism on which I was raised.

    Not to mention the fact that the fundies don't even consider Catholics to be real Christians.  Shit, they think that Rome is the "Babylon" referred to in Revelations, because it's built on 7 hills.  Catholics ought to pay a little more attention to what the wingnut base really thinks of them.

    by Downriver Gal on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:18:21 AM PDT

  •  Another office in No. VA opening (none / 1)

    Kerry/Edwards is going to take up some space in Moran's office in Clarendon/Arlington, VA.  Heard about it at the county fair.

    I think that if No. VA and Hampton Roads/Norfolk area go Blue, that'll carry the rest of the state.  I know that I've been complemented on my K/E button lately.  So I don't give up on VA.

    I think that K/E not playing ads here is to conserve cash until next week.

    BTW, those poll results just ROCK!!!  Would like to see Kerry ahead, but 1 pt down is AWESOME!!!

    Check out & buy my work at Meredith Klinger Photography

    by mlk on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 10:19:48 AM PDT

    •  Yup (none / 1)

      The Clarendon Moran office has been opened since June, and the Virginia Victory '04 campaign is moving in the week after Labor Day.  We're putting in additional phone lines for phone banking next week.

      The office location is fantastic since it's a storefront just across the street from the Clarendon Metro station, so all of those restless Democrats from DC can easily hop a Metro and come out to help any day of the week, too!!!

      (MLK, if you live in Arlington, please come to the BBQ tomorrow!)

      I proudly work for Jim Himes for Congress in CT-04.

      by Maura in VA on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 11:01:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Regions and margin of victory (none / 0)

      Look to the past for your strategy on how to help Kerry win VA. Most of the successful Dem campaigns (Warner's gubentorial run and Robb's effort to beat back Ollie North), have sought to run up large Dem margins in core Northern VA, Richmond and Hampton, while limiting the margin of loss in the outer Northern VA counties (Loudon & Prince William), Richmond suburbs, and Southside.

      The Kerry campaign is well positioned to do assure their margin of victory in the key areas, but they need to work on the rest of it. Robb benefited from a second GOP candidate stealing votes from North. Gov Warner worked hard to limit the GOP margin in both Southside (remember Sportsmen for Warner and the NASCAR sponsorship?) and the outer suburbs.

      What I'm really wondering is whether Edwards can provide any legs down in Southside along the NC border and what else we can do to convince outer suburb voters to dump Bush.

      - "You're Hells Angels, then? What chapter are you from?"
      - REVELATIONS, CHAPTER SIX.

      by Hoya90 on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 01:56:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm in Charlottesville (4.00 / 2)

    and our Albemarle Democratic Picnic is tonight. There is a lot of energy, there's more canvassing going on than ever. We'll be canvassing starting on 11 September and going every weekend until the election day. Al Weed's running hard against Virgil Goode, and any Weed voter who doesn't vote KE04 would be a surprise.

    I still don't know how much to trust the polling. We'll seel.

    by Brian CB on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 11:32:24 AM PDT

  •  I don't watch television... (4.00 / 2)

    and there are places (Charlottesville being one of them) where television ads would be a waste--we've got one channel, everybody reads or gets news from the radio--given that the ground game is where it needs to happen.

    KE04 is, I think, going to have a corner office in the local Charlottesville-Albemarle County Democrats headquarters. We've got an active challenge to a GOP incumbent here that helps get out the activity, too.

    by Brian CB on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 11:36:56 AM PDT

  •  Kos posters talk a lot about AR and TN (4.00 / 2)

    but there is no state I would take greater pleasure in winning this year than Virginia, the heart of the old Confederacy.

    Every time I have to drive on Jefferson Davis Parkway across the Potomac from D.C. I feel the insult.  To put Virginia on the side of equality, civil rights and voting rights would be a strike at the heart southern white repug racist power in America.

    Patriotic, flag waving, radical centrist Howard Dean Democrat. Until we stand on principle and lose our fear of defeat we will never win.

    by rusrivman on Sat Aug 28, 2004 at 11:41:20 AM PDT

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