This is my first post. I'm a eurokossiana and longtime American expat in Barcelona. Hello. I'm so grateful for the internet and dailykos -- I learn a lot from reading all of your posts.
Here is my imperfect translation of an article on the Davos Forum from yesterday's El País. Note: I tried searching on "Davos" to see if there were other diaries covering this and, inexplicably, there were no search results despite the fact that today's Recommended Diaries has an entry about Sharon Stone that includes the string "Davos." Maybe I don't understand how the search works....
I hope it's not bad form to post an entire article in translation.
El País print edition, January 28, 2005
Andrés Ortega, Special Correspondent, Davos
Davos warns of the extreme risks of terrorism in Iraq
[Headline's a little inaccurate considering the article doesn't refer specifically to terrorism in Iraq but rather discusses both terrorism and Iraq as "global geopolitical risks."]
A report by the World Economic Forum considers a rapid fall in the value of the dollar as dangerous
The poor progress of the Iraq conflict and a terrorist attack are the two global geopolitical risks [that are considered] both "extreme" and "probable," together with a rapid fall in the dollar and an increase in the cost of oil [two things] that will "surely" generate a financial crisis. This is the conclusion of a study by the World Economic Forum that was discussed yesterday at Davos by a group of experts.
Among those who spoke yesterday was Fred Bergsten, director of the Institute for International Economics in the United States, who saw three large possibilities that, cumulatively, create a dark scenario that is both "certain and significant": 1) that independently of events in the Gulf, oil reaches $80 a barrel; 2) a rapid fall of the dollar that brings an increase in inflation and subsequent increase in interest rates in the U.S.; and 3) that countries with strong currencies (like the Euro) or with trade surpluses see their exports fall and need to expand their fiscal policy.
These elements feed each other in a cumulative way, increasing the seriousness of the prediction that points to certain financial crises. The fall of the dollar, however, is a real fear for many, except for American business people themselves who believe that their country can continue to print the green bills forever, a belief that was manifested in another working group.
After analyzing the risks, especially those affecting businesses, the debate over the study that was prepared with the collaboration with Merrill Lynch was more precise. In the geopolitical area, Iraq and terrorism were at the top of the list, followed by the possibility of a conflict between China and Taiwan, or with Iran; some participants in other debates considered the latter crisis from the U.S. assured although the Iranians didn't seem to think so.
Lack of Cooperation
Concerning terrorism, the general secretary of Interpol, Ronald Noble, was clearly pessimistic. The existence of 20 million stolen passports in the world, of which the different authorities only have registration numbers for 5.8 million, backs up this vision. He also criticized the lack of international and national cooperation between intelligence agencies. The delays, due to lack of language skills, in the transcription of telephone conversations and e-mails in Arabic hamper the struggle against terrorism. "We can know that something big is going to happen, but not what." he said.
To this are added, in what could be dangerous extra risks, other environmental and social risks in a world that lacks leadership. Almost no one believes that this leadership can be provided only by the U.S., whose administration is not only the great absentee of this forum, but in the debates up to now (in the next few days this will change) it's difficult to take into account the Bush administration, or Europe. [original which I am incapable of fully deciphering: Casi nadie cree que ese liderazgo lo pueda proporcionar por solamente Estados Unidos, cuya Administración no es sólo la gran ausente de este foro, sino que en los debates hasta ahora -- en los próximos días cambiará -- cuesta tomar en cuenta a la Administración Bush, o a Europa.] From this edition of the Davos Forum, one sees a globalization that is full of risks, but also increasingly a globalization that is neither American nor European. Everyone is talking about China, as a reality, as a possibility and also as a risk.
This debate over risk and horizons is part of the general aim of the Davos Forum, which is nothing more and nothing less than to establish a global agenda for at least the next 18 months and beyond if possible. To this end, a debate took place in the so-called "meeting room of the global town hall," which nevertheless resulted in priorities that were different from those of the experts cited: fighting poverty, equitable globalization, fighting climate change, education, the Middle East, and global good government.