This is my first try at this so I beg of you to read with patience and forgive me if the quality of my writing is not up to par with the wonderful stuff posted here. English is currently a language I rarely use, be it for everyday conversations or expressing complicated thoughts.
There is a good reason why I decided to post a diary for the first time. Feb 16, 2003 was the day I was infected with the DKos "bug". Two years is a long time -in the internets reality- and it feels like some sort of aniversary!
This coming Sunday, Feb 20, Portugal will hold Parliamentary elections. To many, it may seem like a subject of little importance since Portugal is not what we might call a military or political power. That said, it is far from being irrelevant. But, since this is just an informative post and not an opinion piece, I will not debate it.
more after the break..... I will keep it as simple as possible.
Brief Introduction
Portugal, for the last 12 years or so, has had parallel political paths with the US. The Socialists were in power during the Clinton years. Their policies and mode of governance were pretty much the same, not withstanding the differences between the role of the State in European countries and the US.
A very successful first term, gave them a second mandate. Things didn't go as well and they paid the price by losing the last election. The economy slowed down and a coalition from the Right took over. Bush - after stealing his election in 2000 - was in power and beginning to show his true colors. It was at this time that we began to feel a "tranformation" in national politics. The economy still remained the primary concern, but, other issues like EU relations, transatlantic, international and other foreign policy issues took a wrong turn. The govt aligned itself with Neoconservative worldview, giving aid and comfort to Bush so that he could have his little Mesopotamian revenge and -believe it or not!- trying to implement policies from the Republican economic playbook.
Some facts:
- Supported Bush on Iraq in spite of popular revolt.
- Led the pack of "New-Europe" to do the same.
- Hosted the Summit where Blair, Aznar and Bush gave the goahead for the war.
- Undermined EU foreign policy and stand on the matter.
- Goal to privatize Health, Water and other services, Argentina style. Selling gold and other state assets to pay for deficit while promising to cut taxes.
Results:
Disaster on all counts
Consequense: The President, confronted with a situation where the government was clearly unable to lead anymore, dissolved Parliament 10 months before the term was over and marked elections for this weekend.
The Players
Socialists, Communists, Social Democrats, Populists and Progressive Leftists are terms that mean different things to Americans and Europeans.
The U.S has had its two-party system for so long and the word "mainstream" has been framed in such a way, that whatever is "different" is labeled in a negative manner and cast out of the power sharing by default. Over here, we tend to use some terms without "prejudice".
There are five parties that are currently represented in the Parliament and are expected to split the 230 seats. The magic number is 116 which guarantees an absolute majority for the winner and a chance to govern at will, since party discipline is the norm. Any other combination of results, will force thw President to appeal to the majority party to form a government if they can form a coalition with a party/parties that are willing to support them and guarantee a majority of votes.
PSD - Social Democrats
It is commonly considered a right-wing party, but in fact it's more of a melting pot of centrists, conservatives and neo-liberals (Thatcher style). A good part of their electoral votes come from Independents that leave them cold with the same ease they supported them a while back. They came to power in 2002 with promises to bring fiscal responsibility, reduce the deficit and make the economy grow. Lacking absolute majority, they turned to the "cousins" from the extreme right to form a governing coalition. The recipe went bad! None of the promises came to be. The defice grew, unemployment doubled and Portugal had the negative growth. No other country in the EU-15 had performed worse.
The deal to share power with the extremists from the right, made things worse. The centrists in the party were blackmailed into defending radical positions on social issues, like abortion, or foreign policy i.e the Iraq war.
PS - Socialist Party
The Socialist Party is also a centrist party. Sure, its base is definitely from the Left but, its policies are not that radical. They claim to support a system of government based on what we here call the "Nordic Model". Sweden and Norway, (Holland and Finland as well) are good examples of open-market economies with the State being the force that guarantees social and economic justice.
They believe in the European project and are liberal on all issues. Would like to maintain good relations with the US, but would never support any of Bush's policies.
CDU - Communist Party coalition with Greens
Communists are NOT "evil-red-monsters-with-two-heads-out-to-kill-us"...! It's just a political party with a long history in the democratic process. It's very respected (more respect than actual votes) because it was them that fought against Salazar and his 50 year dictatorship and it was their fight that finally brought democracy to the country.
Their political views are not based so much on ideological platforms. It has taken the role of a "true" Labor party and 90% of their actions are directed towards achieving better living and work conditions for workers. Something like an umbrella organization for all the Unions.
They are willing to support a Socialist government and even participate in its formation. They might be key players on Monday.
PP - Popular Party
Religious fundamentalists, radical Nacionalists, some xenophobes and some plain-honesty-God racists. Their leader took advantage of the accord they made with the Social Democrats to form the last government and secured two important ministries. Defense and Justice. He idolizes Rumsfeld and the neocon "vision".... while on the social front, if he wasn't a Catholic he could easily convert to a Southern Baptist.
Despises immigrants and would like to see women that abort in jail.
BE - The Leftist Block
This is the new force in Portuguese politics. This is the second time it's participating in nacional elections. Did o.k. last time considering they were the underdogs and nobody gave them a chance to even elect 1 representative.
They represent all the progressive, leftist, liberal elements of the society that were dissatisfied with the status quo and finally formed a grassroot movement (mainly younger voters) to promote an agenda with social issues like, globalization, environment, abortion, employment, legalization of soft drugs etc.
With time, there was some growth in support and naturally more involvement on other issues like social security, anti-war positions etc.
As of now, they declare that they would not participate in any goverment as a partner, but will support a Socialist government with a vote of confidence in the Parliament.
The Campaign
We had a very dirty campaign, so much so that one might think that Karl Rove actually moved over here!
Early polls showed that the Socialists would win big, perhaps achieving absolute majority. If not, they indicated that the three parties on the left would add to 56%-60% part of the votes. The parties on the right got desperate and started using all the dirty tricks in the book. A "rumor" suddenly appeared in a Brazilian magazine hinting that the Socialist candidate may be gay. All of a sudden (never ever been an issue up for discussion before) the leader of the PSD made a speech where he said that he would never accept "gay unions" or "gay marriage" and demanded that his main opponent make a statement if he is in favor or not! That was definitely a trap! Something like "when did you stop beating your wife.." question. Church and individual priest were brought in to appeal to the electorate not to vote for parties that would support gays or abortion... (remind you of anything?).
All in all, the real issues were brushed aside, the Right is trying to control the "Framing" in a clear attempt to confuse people or even appeal to their "moral" instincts.
The Socialists don't show clarity of message even though they can win any argument easily. It seems like US Democrats have given "like-minded" political forces in Europe a bad example....! They have slipped a little in the latest polls, but still hold a commanding lead with percentages between 44%-46%.
The Social Democrats have fallen way back and they seem to have anything from 29%-33%.
The Popular Party might remain in 3rd position expecting to get anywhere from 8%-10%.
The Communist Party is doing better and will be very happy to get anything above 8%, whereas, the Leftist Block might be a big surprise, or not. We've seen polls that give them 4,5% to 8% which, if achieved, will be unprecedented.
Last election Results 2002
The distribution of forces from the last Parliamentary elections were as follows:
PSD - SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 40.15% 102 seats
PS - SOCIALIST PARTY 37.84% 95 seats
PP - POPULAR PARTY 8.75% 14 seats
PCP - COMMUNIST PARTY 6,97% 12 seats
BE - LEFTIST BLOCK 2.75% 3 seats
Being a graduate of the DKos School of Elections (remember...I spent 2 yrs here while Jeff Gannon with a 2-day seminar thinks he is a journalist) I will hesitate to make a prediction based on polls. They tend to be wrong. Even exit-polls are wrong nowadays, especially in Ukrania and/or other countries that use Diebold machines. We dont! We use pen and paper and it takes 5 hours to count all votes. Why pay some company to steal them for us?
I thank you for your patience and please excuse all errors, spelling or otherwise. Will answer all relevant questions if possible and certainly keep you posted on the results on Sunday.