Ten Steps in the Right Direction
(I rewrote Juan Cole's argument, to email friends a shorter version. Thought I should share the fruits of my theft.)
The slogan "US Out Now" ignores the disasters that might ensue from quick withdrawal from Iraq. The current violence, though arguably an unconventional civil war, could expand into `set piece' battles and a true civil war with millions displaced or dead.
For example, in Afghanistan, with similar ethnic divisions, one million died in 1979-1992, and five million were displaced. Also, an Iraqi civil war could draw in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and Turkey. And if a regional guerrilla war breaks out, the oil pipelines would be at risk, possibly disrupting twenty percent of the world's petroleum production and dealing a serious blow to the world economy.
We can't walk away, and let Iraq fall into a genocidal civil war that leaves the Oil Gulf in flames. On the other hand, the radicalization of the Sunni Arab heartland of Iraq proves the failure of US military counter-insurgency tactics. US tactics have made things worse, contributing to the destabilization of the country.
Our absence would be catastrophic, and our presence is disastrous.
Ten Steps in the Right Direction:
- Withdraw US ground troops from urban areas. Let Iraqi police do the policing. Our troops are warriors, not traffic cops.
- Next, withdraw US ground troops from the country as a whole.
- Offer air support in any firefight the Iraqi military has with rebellious forces. (As in Afghanistan, where we provided air force for the Northern Alliance.)
- With the agreement of the Iraqi government, prevent guerrilla fighters from engaging in set piece battles. This tactic cannot prevent car bombings, but can stop a full-scale Lebanon or Afghanistan-style civil war.
- Offer targeted military aid to ensure the stability of the Iraqi government, protect key political figures from assassination, and prevent pipeline sabotage.
- Once US ground troops are withdrawn, rapidly build an Iraqi armor corps.
- Demand elections be held on a district basis to ensure proper representation of the Sunni Arab provinces. (To draw the Sunni Arab political elites into the new government.)
- Demand amnesty for all former Baath Party members not guilty of committing serious crimes, and reinstate Baathists into the schools and civil bureaucracy.
- No longer require that all US reconstruction aid go to US companies and materiel. The reconstruction money should go directly to Iraqi firms, to jump-start the economy.
- Join the regular meetings of the foreign ministers of Iraq's neighbors, plus Russia, to stabilize Iraq through diplomacy and multilateral aid, and encourage Iraq's neighbors to calm their clients within Iraq