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EVACUATE ALL COASTAL AREAS IMMEDIATELY STRETCHING FROM CORPUS CHRISTI, TX, TO CAMERON, LA, INCLUDING HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREA.
***URGENT STORM WARNING*** Last track takes Rita over Gulf Eddy Vortex: A hot spot. Eye Wall Cycle assumed to be complete. Pressure dropping again. This storm is wobbly.
DO NOT TRY TO OUTGUESS THE PROS USING SHORT TERM TRACKS. It's fine to play around but do not make decisions based on it. There is a 5% chance it can hit Corpus still, a ~ 30% for Galevston. You want to risk your life on that? Odds are she will make landfall just west of Beaumont. Storm surges to the east of the strike zone could exceed twenty feet and MAY work inland for perhaps twenty miles in east Tx and West LA. The next eye wall cycle or two will [probably] determine actual strength at landfall but the storm surge will hang on even if she weakens then.
Houston Real Time Traffic Info; Local Houston News w/streaming video link; NOLA Local news w/streaming video link; KTRH 740 Houston streaming AM radio
NOAA Three-day Storm Track. Blogs tracking events: Jeff Masters; The Oil Drum.
Central Texas Advisory: From San Antonio through Waco and possibly up to Dallas-Fort Worth, is experiencing a massive influx of evacuees. Local sources (HT: PW at DELL) tell me they're running out of everyday items. Estimated at perhaps three million people total and most of them are still in transit or haven't left yet. This may be the largest civilian movement in recent history.
Some of these folks have no where to go or won't be able to find rooms. Thousands may run out of gas on I-35 or HWY 290. You may see numerous families *walking* on the side of the road in numbers too great to handle. Worse, there is a chance Rita will shift due west over Harris County and/or Central Texas shortly after landfall bringing 20 INCHES of rain on these people's heads. Massive flash flood potential especially for Hill Country.
Corpus Christi Web Cams; Galveston web-cams; Houston Transit Cams
Hurricane Energy Primer DKos; Hurricane Formation Primer DKos; Offshore Rig Locations.
Special Texas Advisory by Steve Gregory SEP 22 - 2:30 PM EDT:
HURRICANE RITA BEGINS EYE WALL REPLACEMENT. LANDFALL FURTHER EAST - GREATEST THREAT HIGH ISLAND,TX TO CAMERON, LA. POST LANDFALL MAJOR FLOOD THREAT
The storm is located near 25.4N/88.8W -- and the central pressure has risen to 915mb. In addition, the 18NM diameter eyewall has just 'opened up' to the SE, revealing the developing outer eyewall with a 45NM diameter.
The MAX winds have also eased back to around 155mph -- a borderline CAT 5 intensity. Even more telling, the thermal eyewall temp gradient of the INNER eye has dropped to 4°C indicating the inner wall will soon collapse entirely, and the outer ring of convection will become the primary eye wall. Once that completes (in 2-hrs) -the new , wider diameter eyewall will begin shrinking down again, and will most likely lead to some re-intensification of the wind speeds - if not the pressure itself. That would likely occur overnight.
Beyond this cycling phase, the new GFS 12Z model run continues to show landfall further east - now along the TX./LA border. This dramatically increases the potential storm surge threat for southwest LA, while reducing the threat to Galveston. Whether or not this is just a 'flip-flop' in the track evolution is simply unknowable -- but the initialization data shows the high pressure ridge to the north weakening as forecast by the GFS, and I'm inclined to believe it. Accordingly, from my perspective, the highest probability; for landfall, lies from near High Island, Texas (about midway between Galveston and Port Arthur) eastward to Cameron, LA. If landfall reaches Port Arthur or a bit east - hurricane force winds will reach eastward to Grand Isle, LA. -- and the storm surge would
shift accordingly -- with a 7-10ft storm surge over to Grand Isle, and 5-8 feet across the Mississippi Delta.
Before accepting this further east scenario we will at least need to see all the 18Z model runs show this change, and then confirm it with the evening, 00Z run. Special upper air surveillance missions are planned for the evening model runs -- and this should add greatly to the accuracy of the track forecast.
Beyond the issue of the actual landfall point -- for the past 2 days, the global models have been forecasting the re-development/intensification of the high pressure ridge over the central U.S. -- and then expands it towards the Gulf coast. What this means, is that after Rita moves inland Saturday morning, it will gradually slow down, then stall out over west central Louisiana - and then is forecast to drift SOUTHWESTWARD towards Houston by Monday. This type of motion would lead to extreme rainfall totals across much of Louisiana and the east-southeast areas of Texas following landfall. Tremendous, life threatening flooding could result from portions of
Louisiana southwestward to the Houston area. Storm rainfall totals could easily exceed 20" in some locations.
The next full update will be this evening -- with a brief storm status update around 4PM.
From Prof Goose at The Oil Drum:
The worst tracks are those which put landfall between Freeport and Sabine Pass Texas. There are 3 tracks that cross just offshore of the TX/LA border. Those 3 tracks all let the storm hit more rigs and platforms than the tracks that have landfall farther south. The big concentrations of platforms are in the West Cameron, High Island, Galveston, and Matagorda Island offshore areas. Mustang Island and North/South Padre Island offshore areas are less crowded with production. If you want to know what these areas look like and where they are geographically, try the MMS website. They instituted the block layout, naming and leasing stuff. Landfall just east of
Houston's center will be right up refinery alley. Another bad spot isright up through Port Arthur and Beaumont - another big refining center. Not trying to slam anyone, but the best place in terms of damage [to the oil industry] would be between Corpus Christi and Brownsville - lots of low areas and farmland/ranches would flood, but minimal infrastructure damage. Next best is between Houston and Corpus Christi - again, fairly vacant of major infrastructure. Most of our big plants are in the stretch of coastline between Freeport and Sabine Pass. We're all just watching and hoping it stays poorly organized
and just hits as a Cat 2 or 3...
A CAT 4 to 5 storm will completely blow down wooden structures, small buildings, and take out all utilities. It is for all practical purposes an F-4 Tornado with a funnel 10-30 miles wide! It will lift you off the ground, implant debris in you like a grenade or swat you with a wall like a fly, and hurl you hundreds of meters or more. It can pick vehicles off the ground and put them on your roof. It can strip enormous tree trunks and ram the remainder through walls like a cruise missile. Texans: You have never seen a storm with this kind of potential in your state! Don't play the lottery. DO NOT FUCK AROUND!!! LEAVE!!!
Residents on, near, or within 50-100 miles of coast stretching from southwest of Corpus to the Texas-Louisaina Border, including the Greater Houston area: Leave now!! Gas up, have food snacks and water on board. Buddy up with neighbors and form a small convoy of several vehicles in case of mechanical breakdown--You don't want to be stranded and face danger over a goddamn radiator seal on a packed freeway! If the storm veers or weakens, big deal, you end up taking a flippin five-day weekend in the beautiful Texas Hill or Pine Country! Especially in large urban areas like Greater Houston or Corpus: Do Not Wait Until the Last Second. Go. Go now or go soon.
IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A RIDE OUT OR CAN OFFER ONE, INDICATE SO HERE ON THIS THREAD AND MAYBE YOU CAN HOOK UP WITH ANOTHER KOSSACK. YOUR RESPONSIBILITY: USE COMMON SENSE. We may have a ride and shelter thread set-up shortly.