I was not directly targeted by
troutfishing's moving diary on fear yesterday (
The Daily Kos, full 'o fear.), but some commenters did take diarists like bonddad and me to task for our supposedly catastrophist and malthusian outlook on the economy, and I'd like to respond to that, and possibly discuss some blog dynamics.
UPDATE
If you want some good fighting spirit, please go read and recommend nyceve's diary: A plea: Start with hope, and we will win
I responded briefly in troutfishing's diary in this comment:
I hope I drove noone to hysteria
I think you are a bit unfair on us. Being informed of potential (and pretty damn likely) downside scenarios is not the same thing as being hysterical.
Do you consider the US economy to be perky? The twin trade and budget deficits to be sustainable? That there is no energy crisis?
We have a number of contrarian commenters in all the diaries, and I think you'll find that our discussions are not hysterical or fearmongering.
which I would like to extend as follows:
- I do think there is a case that the Bush administration (together with their crony "Bubbles" Greenspan) has played recklessly and dangerously with the US (and the world) economy, by (i) pumping record volumes of liquidity in the financial world and (ii) channeling as much as possible of the resulting loot to their base, the "have mores", at the expense of today's stagnating (and heavily indebted) middle class and their children;
- I do think it is relevant to this site to try to show how partisan these policies have been, and how detrimental they are - and will be - to the middle class, and to make suggestions to avoid the worst consequences (things like avoiding debt, or at least avoiding variable interest rates);
- These diaries, with the comment feature so kindly made available to us by kos, are a way for these opinions to be confronted with the many different points of view present on this site, and many of you have kindly taken me to task for what you felt was excessive pessimism or incomplete data. The resulting discussions, which have pretty much always been courteous, have helped many of us clarify our understanding of what we were talking about;
- with that perspective in mind, I still think today that, in aggregate, a real economic crisis is coming, which will hurt American consumers badly. I have never given a precise timing to that crisis, but I do maintain my position that its likelihood is high in the near future - say before Bush leaves office.
- on the energy front, there are a lot of things to worry about, and the fact that energy prices have basically doubled since I started writing these diaries in late 2004 shows that a few others on the market share at least some of these worries. I may also point out that I have made extensive use of the mainstream/serious business press, so it's not like the facts I present are coming from conspiracy theory fans or kooks. I have therefore pretty strong confidence when I say that this winter is going to be unusually hard on Americans.
But again, all the above amounts, in the end, to the opinion of one writer who claims to be a banker in Europe. What matters is that a number of readers have chosen, on a regular basis, to recommend my diaries and to give them prominence on this site. Why is that?
- one theory (that I aired myself in this diary) is that I am taking advantage of time zones to have a disproportionate place on the reclist. I am gaming the system thanks to my location in Europe, and there's little you can do about it. You're lefties, so you don't believe in arbitrage opportunities, and I can continue to take advantage ofthe system...
- another theory is that this is all wishful thinking. We all hate Bush so much and think he is doing so much wrong that it has to end badly, and any crisis will be just retribution for his failed presidency. I think there is some reality to this "I told you so" syndrome, in that it would indeed be a form of justice, and we are all eager to hear that there will be justice in the end. However, this neglects the fact that kossacks are more likely to pay the consequences of that crisis than Bush's pork-fed friends, and that the schadenfreude would not last long, and I think we are all aware of this. Worry permeates these threads more than joy;
- the next proposal is of course that this site is just full of America-haters, and nothing would make them happier than the supposed "humbling" or defeat of their country in the hands of the enemies (the wily Chinese? The corrupt Europeans? the thrid world hordes?). Malthusian pessimists have been around for ages, and now they congregate on dkos and vent daily, like the good "teenage scribblers" they are. This sounds suspiciously like a caricature of the left by the right, and indeed it is. You guys are vigilant patriots, and as a foreigner, I can easily confirm to you all that you indeed are patriots, and that I am happy to be amongst you because it is not an aggressive or closed form of patriotism, but quite the opposite, a mostly welcoming, idealistic and generous version of it. And I have often been critical of your country, and many of you have taken this in the spirit it was given, as an opportunity to learn and to improve things, and I think I have been able to do the same.
- a likely option, which I naturally keep for last, is that there is some reality to the threats I describe, and that talking about them and about ways to prevent them is the best chance we have that the worst does not take place as feared. In such a vision, talking about looming catastrophes is not doom'n'gloom or pessismism, but the highest form of optimism, because we still have hope that these dangers can be avoided.
In any case, I'd like to say that I am very proud that the threads in my diaries have always been uniformly well-informed, polite and interesting to read (and it takes me a heck of a lot of time to read them in full, which I always do), and that they show more of the can-do spirit of the kossacks, their willingness to help and advise one another, and their kindness than they show any form of gloom, or defeatism, or hate.
Let's leave that to the other side. We are all here because we feel that things are not as they should be, and we care enough to do something about it. Effective action requires good information, and this place is the best one around to find that.
So bear with the sometimes sensationalist diary titles (hey, this is a competitive place, and what works in the real world works here too), and focus on the content, which is enriching, exhilarating, and endlessly useful. Useless or pointless diaries do not get recommended often, despite all the temporary fads on the site. There is catastrophism on the site because the world is not going in the right direction, and talking about it is the best way to try to prevent that.
What we must not do is abandon hope, and fall victim to our fears, but I don't see that happening here.
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