Well having hopefully caught you attention with that headline I now bring you excerpts of the Oxford Research International poll sponsered by ABC,BBC,Der Speigal, NHK and Time Magazine
http://abcnews.go.com/...
http://news.bbc.co.uk/...
In the poll 1711 Iraqis were interviewed throughout the country in October and November 2005.
the poll provides a number of interesting opinions, some contradictory and enough grist for both pro and anti war factions to chew on.
first the big one
Support for the U.S.-led invasion has dropped: In February 2004, 39 percent of Iraqis told us they believed the invasion was wrong, but today that number stands at 50 percent.
Geee....when half of Iraqis are saying the invasion was wrong you know things are going to get ugly.
btw I realize i've not added much of my own analyisis to this survey but really this stuff is self explanatory and I'm not sure what more I could add.
When asked to choose a priority for the new government due to be formed after this week's parliamentary elections, 57% wanted to focus on restoring public security. Removing US-led forces from Iraq came second with 10%, while rebuilding the country's infrastructure was third.
Half of those questioned felt Iraq needed a single, strong leader following December's vote, while 28% thought democracy was more important.
However, opinions changed when people were asked about what Iraq would need in five years' time.
Support for a strong leader fell to 31% and that for democracy rose to 45%.
The support for democracy does not translate into support for Iraq's political parties. Only 25% had confidence in Iraq's politicians - far lower than the 67% who trust its religious leaders and army.
I guess a strong religious leader with military backing is what the Iraqis are looking for ?
Interviewers found that 71% of those questioned said things were currently very or quite good in their personal lives, while 29% found their lives very or quite bad.
When asked whether their lives would improve in the coming year, 64% said things would be better and 12% said they expected things to be worse.
However, Iraqis appear to have a more negative view of the overall situation in their country, with 53% answering that the situation is bad, and 44% saying it is good.
But they were more hopeful for the future - 69% expect Iraq to improve, while 11% say it will worsen
Even among optimistic Iraqis it appears the U.S. gets little credit for any improvements in their lives. Fewer than one in five Iraqis believes that U.S. reconstruction efforts have been "effective." Most Iraqis now say they "disapprove strongly" of how the U.S. has operated in Iraq. Not surprisingly, the percentage of Iraqis today who oppose the U.S. presence has spiked — from 51 percent to 65 percent. Only 44 percent of Iraqis say they believe things are going well in their country; 52 percent said they felt the country was "doing badly."
guess they need more propoganda planted in their newspapers.
While 54 percent of Shia Muslims believe the country is in better shape than it was before the war, only 7 percent of Sunnis believe the same. Optimism about security — 80 percent of Shias and 94 percent of Kurds say they feel safer — is absent among Sunnis. Only 11 percent of Iraq's Sunni Muslims say they feel safer than they did under Saddam.
the shape of things to come.
for therest of the survey the country ws broken into regions and asked how they felt about
1) SECURITY
North: Better
Central: Worse
South: Better
Security remains far and away the primary concern for Iraqis; 57 percent say it's what matters most. (The next closest category — "getting the U.S. out of Iraq" — draws just 10 percent.) Anecdotally, we continue to hear nightmarish stories about the lack of security — and important ways in which this problem permeated so many walks of life. And yet the overall numbers — in the north and south in particular — suggest that the situation has actually improved.
Sixty-one percent of Iraqis now say they feel security is better than it was before the war; that represents a 12 percent increase since we last asked, and a fairly startling counterweight to the prevalent view in the press. Having said that, these numbers are driven almost entirely by Shiites and Kurds who were treated so brutally under Saddam Hussein. By contrast, among Iraq's Sunnis — for whom "security" was almost ironclad under Saddam — a whopping 90 percent report their security is worse today. In 2005, the majority of insurgent attacks have been concentrated in four of Iraq's 18 provinces, which are home to roughly 45 percent of the country's population: Ninevah, Al Anbar, Baghdad and Salah ah Din. Attacks have focused primarily on members of the Iraqi Security Forces, members of the Multinational Forces, Iraqi civilians and government officials — as well as foreign diplomatic and media personnel.
Iraqis who do not feel safe tell us they take a variety of measures to protect themselves. Sixty-seven percent say they avoid U.S. forces; one in two stays clear of checkpoints if possible; and 43 percent are careful about what they say in public. Again, these are figures for Iraqis who say they feel less safe than before.
2) AVAILABILITY of JOBS
North: Better
Central: Worse
South: Same or Worse
This category divides across both sectarian and geographic lines: In central Iraq, with higher percentages of Sunnis, Iraqis say it has become more difficult to find work. There is optimism in the south and still more in the north, where — as you will see in the Availability of Goods section — there has been a significant increase in commerce. Overall, however, only 38 percent of Iraqis say that it is easier to find work today than it was before the U.S.-led invasion.
3) ELECTRICITY AND FUEL
North: Same or Worse
Central: Worse
South: Same or Worse
Electricity has, from the beginning, been one of the most tangible and visible ways to assess quality of life in Iraq. By many measures, the availability of electricity has improved in Iraq over the past year — though reliability remains a problem, and throughout the country we continue to hear the complaint: How can the United States of America not manage to fix this problem?
Many people still spend entire evenings with no electricity. Entrepreneurial-minded Iraqis have bought generators and leased power to their neighborhoods — only to incur the wrath of neighbors when the generators malfunction. Our team in South Baghdad met Saad Nima Lafta, who has bought a generator — and a rifle for protection. And in a country where electricity comes at such a premium, so too does something as seemingly simple as ice. Many Iraqis have been using five-pound blocks of ice to help cool perishables such as milk and meat. Grocers have also begun using blocks of ice when the electricity goes out. The cost of ice has increased steadily over the past few years.
The influx of electrical appliances — satellite dishes and televisions, air conditioners and refrigerators — has boosted demand exponentially. U.S. and Iraqi officials say that demand is simply growing much more rapidly than electricity can be generated. We are mindful that when people report that their availability of electricity is "worse," this may well reflect the fact that their neighborhood is newly stocked with consumer goods.
According to the United Nations, Baghdad's 6.5 million residents enjoyed an almost continuous supply of electricity prior to the war. Pre-war Baghdad, the seat of Saddam's power, typically received ample electricity during the day because Saddam siphoned electricity away from other regions to use in the capital. Today, power is more evenly distributed, to the chagrin of Baghdad residents in particular.
While rural areas and the Kurdish north are getting more power than ever, central Sunni areas have seen marked declines in power availability due to this reallocation. In July 2005, Iraqi Planning Minister Barham Salih said he expected that every Iraq home and business would have restored electricity by the end of 2005. By all accounts, reaching this goal appears far off. As of late August 2005, Baghdad residents were only receiving two hours of power, followed by four hours of no power, per day, while on average Iraqis across the country had power only 50 percent of the day. Again, available statistics vary.
Insecurity has hurt the electricity grid. Since June 2005, insurgent attacks have blacked out Iraq's electrical grid twice. A U.S. Department of Defense report to Congress in October 2005 blamed low electricity supplies on "terrorist attacks, substandard operations and maintenance practices, increased and unchecked consumer demand, and an infrastructure that has been deteriorating for years."
4) WATER AND SANITATION
North: Better
Central: Worse
South: Same or Worse
We said it last year, but it's worth repeating: Sewage treatment and clean water matter. It may seem obvious — but of course those of us who take such things for granted may need a reminder of just how vital these quality-of-life indicators are for Iraqis.
We continue to find anecdotal horror stories of "sewage and garbage everywhere," as one resident in Baghdad's Al-Ra'ay district put it. There are children with stomach ailments and skin diseases caused by fouled water in Al Khahlaa, in the south; children at the Alshid Abdul Wahid Elementary School who cannot drink the water or use the bathrooms; and, most poignant of all, the scene our reporters found at a hospital in Baghdad's Sadr City. Here an ambulance had to plow through sewage on its way in and out, and the hospital staff discovered sewage coursing through hospital rooms, and then faced the terrible choice of whether to clean those rooms slowly and inefficiently, or to pump the sewage directly to the city streets. Ultimately hospital administrators and doctors explained their plight to people in the neighborhood; those neighbors understood, and accepted the decision to pump the filth out — though that meant that sewage soon coursed along their streets. In many parts of the country people have resorted to buying bottled water — or even Pepsi — for their children.
5) EDUCATION
North: Better
Central: Better
South: Better
This remains an almost unqualified success story. In all three parts of the country, large majorities of Iraqis told us they believed education had improved — both in terms of the schools themselves and the quality of teaching.
Today 74 percent of Iraqis say that schools have improved since Saddam Hussein's time; this appears in part a reflection of their happiness that Saddam himself no longer dominates the texts. But teachers are also better paid, and many schools have been spruced up with the help of reconstruction funds.
6) HEALTH CARE
North: Better
Central: Same or Worse
South: Same or Better
This remains a tough area in which to gauge progress. Without question there is exponentially more money spent today on health care than there was during the final years of Saddam's rule. Whether this money is being efficiently spent or fairly distributed is up for debate.
While health care may be "available" to all Iraqis, hospitals throughout the country remain in need of renovations and repair, and they often operate without the most basic medicines, or with ill-functioning equipment. Like Iraqi households, hospitals and health centers are affected by the degraded water and sanitation systems, and the on-again, off-again supply of electricity.
In central Iraq, complaints about health care were common. According to Dr. Ayad Abdul Kadhem of Sadr Hospital, "Almost anything is better than being a doctor in Iraq right now. The situation is so difficult in the medical field that many of us want to quit." The head of the ER at Baghdad's Yarmouk Hospital spoke passionately to us about the psychological toll he and his colleagues have felt — and scores of doctors have, in fact, left Iraq in the past few years. The mass exodus of Iraqi doctors has had a devastating effect on the health care system in Iraq.
Still, by 62 percent to 36 percent, Iraqis told us that the availability of health care was "good." We heard positive reports from patients at Al Nasiriyah General Hospital in Basra — compliments for doctors who, like so many Iraqi teachers, have been the beneficiaries of salary upgrades in the last two years
AVAILABILITY OF GOODS
North: Better
Central: Same or Better
South: Better
The proliferation of goods in Iraq has become something of an explosion.Looser borders, the lifting of sanctions and more disposable income have made new products and foods available to more Iraqis since the war began. The 27 percent to 40 percent of Iraqis who remain unemployed have of course suffered in terms of their purchasing power. Even for the most basic foods, costs have doubled since the fall of Saddam. And yet Iraqis as a whole are on something of a spending spree. Ownership is up by 10 percent for cars; up by 14 percent for air conditioners; up by 18 percent for bicycles; and 62 percent of Iraqis now say they have mobile phones
8) LOCAL GOVERNMENT
North: Better
Central: Worse
South: Better
It is worth noting that when we last published this report, 11 months ago, there had been no elections in Iraq, and no constitutional referendum. Iraqis and the outside world were girding for the possibility of widespread and disruptive violence at the polls.
Today, faith in the electoral process runs high (with the exception of the disaffected Sunnis) and confidence in public institutions has risen. This is particularly true for the Iraqi Army — up from 39 percent to 67 percent, and the police — up from 45 percent to 69 percent. A smaller majority say they are confident in their local and national leaders — but as we said at the outset, seven in 10 Iraqis believe the Dec. 15 elections will improve their lot. Another interesting development: basic interest in politics has soared. The percentage of Iraqis reporting such an interest has gone from 39 (November 2003) to 69 today. Asked what sort of government they wish for, 57 percent of Iraqis told us they would prefer a democratic state; 26 percent answered "strong leader"; only 14 percent expressed a preference for an Islamic state.
The geographic division used in this report is perhaps least relevant here. While a slim majority nationwide (51 percent) approve of their local government, sectarian differences are obvious. Iraq's Shiites and Kurds — two populations widely persecuted under Saddam Hussein — are not surprisingly filled with hope and high expectations for the country's current and future political leaders. By large margins, Shiites and Kurds approve of the recently adopted constitution and are confident that the elections will bring positive change. They also give the young Iraqi government generally good marks. The contrast among Sunnis is stark: Only 27 percent approve of the constitution; 48 percent say they are confident regarding the elections; and only 12 percent believe the government has done a good job.
Few Iraqis say they believe the country is on a course for civil war. Yet these sectarian differences, and the disaffection of the Sunnis generally, would seem to present one of the greatest challenges facing Iraq.
WOMEN'S ISSUES:
Our poll found considerable support for women's rights. Ninety-nine percent believe women can be doctors; 80 percent say they can serve in public office; and 78 percent say women should be allowed to "instruct men in their work!"